joyaxiam
New Member
Hello All
How you can forecast when market is about range or when the trend is about to start before it happens hours or days before? I am not sure if this question has been raised here before?. Nevertheless, I haven't seen one from this forum or of any other fx forums.
We all know that ranging market (particularly tight range) is a carnage zone, chop to pieces zone, and many traders get killed thick and fast (speak to myself
). They try to avoid the ranging market at all cost. There are some classic indicators like MACD range zone helps you to identify it. But, personally, I don't use MACD at all and I found it is very late and inaccurate.
I personally have run hundreds of hours backtesting exclusively on GBPUSD pair using 1H TF, and I got some basic understanding about when market will be ranging, and when market will be trending. My findings are below:
Ranging is an accumulation phase. After a period of accumulation, market will start the trend (after done its stop hunt, fake breakout tricks). A very good indicator to find ranging market earlier than other indicators I found is the ichimoku cloud senkou span B flat lined. Another one is 144LWMA work in sync with kumo, it is also almost flat lined forming 5º or 10º or 15º angle. I also use fractal channel to box in the ranges.
You often find ranging market occurred at Elliot wave 2, and 4 respectively. Before a major news event, market top / bottom out, or in the middle of a trend where it try to take a break forming a wedge, bull/bear flag. When this happens, you will see on TDI the signals are sit at appr. 50% level.
It depends on the timeframe, when market ranged for a period of time, it will start the decent trend. This is where you should get in the trend and make money.
I believe there are only 3 phases in the market: trend, accumulation, stop hunt (fake breakout) made by market makers.
If you found this is an interesting topic, please share your thoughts, experience and backtesting results.
How you can forecast when market is about range or when the trend is about to start before it happens hours or days before? I am not sure if this question has been raised here before?. Nevertheless, I haven't seen one from this forum or of any other fx forums.
We all know that ranging market (particularly tight range) is a carnage zone, chop to pieces zone, and many traders get killed thick and fast (speak to myself
). They try to avoid the ranging market at all cost. There are some classic indicators like MACD range zone helps you to identify it. But, personally, I don't use MACD at all and I found it is very late and inaccurate.I personally have run hundreds of hours backtesting exclusively on GBPUSD pair using 1H TF, and I got some basic understanding about when market will be ranging, and when market will be trending. My findings are below:
Ranging is an accumulation phase. After a period of accumulation, market will start the trend (after done its stop hunt, fake breakout tricks). A very good indicator to find ranging market earlier than other indicators I found is the ichimoku cloud senkou span B flat lined. Another one is 144LWMA work in sync with kumo, it is also almost flat lined forming 5º or 10º or 15º angle. I also use fractal channel to box in the ranges.
You often find ranging market occurred at Elliot wave 2, and 4 respectively. Before a major news event, market top / bottom out, or in the middle of a trend where it try to take a break forming a wedge, bull/bear flag. When this happens, you will see on TDI the signals are sit at appr. 50% level.
It depends on the timeframe, when market ranged for a period of time, it will start the decent trend. This is where you should get in the trend and make money.
I believe there are only 3 phases in the market: trend, accumulation, stop hunt (fake breakout) made by market makers.
If you found this is an interesting topic, please share your thoughts, experience and backtesting results.
