Followme-daily forex analysis

Discussion in 'General Discussions' started by StraussX, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    Hello guys, happy Wednesday.

    Let's focus on the AUD.

    Australia reported a better #wage growth data for the second quarter, but the #AUD has failed to pick up a strong bid.


    The #AUDUSD pair rose ten pips to hit a session high of 0.6809 immediately after the upbeat data hit the wires and is now trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.6787.


    The Australian wage price index rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, beating the estimated print of 0.5%. The annualized figure came in at 2.3% as expected.


    The #RBA expects higher wages to lead to higher consumption and inflation, so the better-than-expected wage price index should have put a bid under the AUD.


    The Australian currency is not impressed, which indicates the #investors believe the wage growth data is not strong enough to deter the RBA from cutting rates further in the near future.


    These fears could be bolstered if China's #RetailSales and #IndustrialProduction data due at 02:00 GMT, prints well below estimates. In that case, the AUD/USD will likely fall toward Tuesday's low of 0.6746.
     
  2. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    08.20 #AUDUSD #news #forex
    The Australian dollar fell in yesterday's Trading, almost touching the resistance point of 0.6800 at 0.6795. After a tumultuous last week, the AUD is expected to see further volatility with the release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes tomorrow midday.

    Released 11 times a year, the minutes are a detailed record of the #ReserveBank Board’s most recent meeting. It will provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

    The #AUDUSD is at 0.6780 nearly. Traders are betting on the Euro to #fall through the psychological level of $1.10 this month as the #ECBprepares a stimulus package amidst the recent global economic downturn. Policy maker Olli Rehn said the package would be “impactful and significant” and would be better for the bank to overshoot than undershoot market expectations.

    Furthermore, we can expect to see further short-term volatility as the US-China #TradeWar continues to develop. The temporary license granted to Huawei by the US Commerce department is due to expire today, with expectations that they will extend it another 90 days permitting the Chinese firm to continue to purchase supplies from US companies.

    The #EconomicPolicySymposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this upcoming Saturday. Attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the world, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is the highlight of the day as they look for signals of further #RateCuts.

    Expected Ranges
    AUD/USD: 0.6715 - 0.6820
     
  3. ji

    jimmy New Member
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    thanks for your share, I'll follow tour analysis
     
  4. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    thanks, hope you like it.
     
  5. sh

    shah New Member
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    thank for share,still follow to learn better and better
     
  6. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    [08.29] #analysis #forex #JPY

    The #USDJPY pair came under some renewed #selling #pressure on Thursday and eroded a part of the previous session's positive move, back closer to weekly #tops.


    The pair continued with its struggle to capitalize on this week's goodish rebound from multi-year lows and gain any strong follow-through traction beyond 200-hour SMA resistance near the 106.20-25 region.


    A combination of factors benefitted JPY

    As investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon, concerns over the global economic growth continued benefitting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and capped the major.


    Market worries were evident from the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, which coupled with the inversion of the US #BondYield curve, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and exerted some pressure.


    The Japanese Yen was further supported by the Bank of Japan (#BoJ) board member Suzuki's comments, saying that the economy not showing signs of #recession and that they do not need to #ease further now.


    Meanwhile, the #downside seemed limited, at least for the time being, as investors now seemed to refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's important release of revised US Q2 #GDP growth figures.


    So, it will be #prudent to wait for a strong follow-through momentum in either direction before positioning for the pair's near-term trajectory amid the the recent escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. #followme #socialtrading
     
  7. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    thanks, my friend!
     
  8. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    #analysisi #forex #GBPUSD

    #GBP was expected to weaken yesterday, and break of the solid 1.2150 support was not expected. There was another support at 1.2180. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2172 during late NY hours before settling on a soft note at 1.2182. The immediate #risk still appears to be tilted to the downside, and for today, a breach of 1.2150 is not ruled out. That said, lackluster momentum suggests the next support at 1.2125 is unlikely to be challenged (this level is followed by solid support at 1.2100). On the upside, only a move above 1.2250 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased (minor resistance is at 1.2225).

    #Next 1-3 weeks, #GBP is likely to probe the #top of the expected 1.2150/1.2380 range first. After touching a one-month high of 1.2310 on Tuesday (27 Aug), GBP plummeted on the back #Brexitheadlines and came close to the bottom of the expected range at 1.2150 (low of 1.2156). While the positive underlying tone has been dented, we continue to view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase.

    So, after yesterday’s price action, GBP would likely trade at a lower range of 1.2100/1.2300 in the coming days.
     
  9. br

    broforex Member
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    [​IMG]

    USDCAD today, as we see here. The trend is still sideway, so you can sell it when the price breaks support area at 1.32800 with potential target up to 50 pips below .
     
  10. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    excellent!
     
  11. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    #WeekAhead

    #forex #followme #socialtrading

    Here are the calendar highlights for this week:

    (GMT TIME ZONE)


    Monday

    01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

    01:00 JPY Japan Vehicle Sales y/y

    03:00 TRY Turkey GDP y/y

    07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI

    07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI

    04:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

    08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI


    Tuesday

    04:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement

    04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

    07:00 ECB's Nominated President Lagarde speech

    13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI m/m

    13:45 USD Markit PMI data (Aug)

    14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

    21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter) speech



    Wednesday

    01:30 JPY BoJ's Kataoka speech

    01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

    08:30 GBP Services PMI

    09:00 EUR Eurozone retail sales m/m

    11:00 EUR ECB's Lane speech

    14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

    14:00 CAD Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision

    15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference

    18:00 USD Fed releases Beige Book



    Thursday

    05:45 CHF Q2 GDP q/q

    12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (Aug)

    13:45 USD Markit Services PMI data (Aug)

    14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    14:30 GBP BOE’s Tenreyro speaks in Frankfurt

    15:45 CAD BOC Schembri give economic progress report


    Friday

    06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production m/m

    07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices m/m

    09:00 EUR Q2 Final GDP q/q

    12:30 USD Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment Rate and Wage Data

    12:30 CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

    14:00 CAD IVEY PMI

    16:30 Fed's Chair Powell speech

    16:30 SNB's Chairman Jordan speech



    The US-China #TradeWar remains tense, as certain tariffs kick in and will start to weigh on the US economy. Continued deterioration with Chinese manufacturing data also has #global #recession concerns on high alert and have markets bracing for the next wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus.


    Markets remain firmly focused on the #ECB’s September 12th meeting and September 18th #FOMC decision, but we can’t overlook a plethora of# rate decisions that will likely signal continued additional #RateCuts are coming and stimulus is just around the corner. The #RBA is expected to remain on hold for just one month, while the #BOC and #Riksbank are expected to deliver dovish messages that will see them join the global #RateCutting club.


    #GBP #Brexit #BorisJohnson will suspend parliament, commencing between 9th and 12th September (tbc) until the Queen’s speech on 14th October. The move leaves MPs that want to block no-deal with little time to do so and increases the chance of no-deal Brexit. The next week could, therefore, be action-packed and full of surprises. Massive swings in the pound look almost guaranteed, with there being particular vulnerability to the downside if government fails to block no-deal or bring down the government.


    #AUD The #RBA meeting on Tuesday could be another one on pause mode, with market pricing only assigning a 10% chance of a 25 bps cut from the current record low of 1%. The last set of employment data was robust, with solid jobs growth and a stable unemployment rate at 5.2%. There is a slight risk of a surprise cut, but more likely we could get a more dovish tone to the statement. Q2 GDP data on Wednesday could spring a positive surprise, with latest estimates suggesting a slight improvement to +0.5% q/q from +0.4%. A dovish statement or a surprise cut would pile additional pressure on an already weak Aussie dollar. It’s fallen vs the US dollar for the past six weeks. Other G-7 Q2 data has been flat to negative, so positive growth could be a boon for AUD.
     

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  12. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    #analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading

    The #GBPUSD pair pullback to 1.2240 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Now it is trading at 1.2217.

    #GBP recently surged as the UK lawmakers voted to avoid #NoDeal #Brexit and also turning the down the #PM #BorisJohnson’s proposed snap general election. The members of the parliaments (MPs) debated various bills concerning no-deal Brexit and early elections at the House of Commons. These bills will now reach the upper house i.e. the House of Lords for further discussions/amendments, scheduled for Thursday, and return back to the lower chamber prior to getting the Royal Assent. As per the Labour sources cited by The Press Association, the UK government's legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be completed by Friday.

    With the risk tone remains positive with nearly four basis points (bps) of gains to 1.51% mark of the US 10-year Treasury yield by the press time.

    Trade headlines will be the key to determine near-term trade direction of the #GBPUSD pair while August month’s ADP Employment Change, #ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (#PMI) and Factory Orders for July from the #US will decorate the economic calendar.



    #Technical Analysis

    Traders now watch over 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2155 and 1.2100 round-figure during additional pullback whereas 1.2308/10 area including August month high and 50-day SMA and early-July low surrounding 1.2382 could please buyers if prices clear recent high of 1.2261.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    #WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
    Here are the data highlights for this week:
    (GMT+8)

    Monday:
    14:00 German trade figures and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index
    16:00 UK BoE's Vlieghe speech
    16:30 UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output (all monthly figures)

    Tuesday:
    09:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
    16:30 UK average earnings index
    16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jul)

    Wednesday:
    08:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
    20:30 US core PPI

    Thursday:
    Chinese trade figures
    14:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
    19:45 Europe ECB rate decision and press conference
    20:30 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
    20:30 US CPI

    Friday
    20:30 US retail sales
    22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)

    #ECB unlikely to re-launch #QE
    In this week, the main significant event is Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting as the #ECB President. There have been some suggestions that the #Italian will go out with a bang and announce more quantitative #easing to stimulate the flagging #Eurozone #economy - not least Germany, where incoming data has been truly shocking.
    However, with #InterestRates already at zero and having only recently ended their #QE programme, some would argue that the best course of action would be to take no action at all, even if — as Mr Draghi put it in July — the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse.” Indeed, there could be an element of hawkish surprise at this meeting. Several ECB officials have spoken against QE, including Jens Weidmann, Klaas Knot, and Madis Muller in recent days. With this much opposition, Mario Draghi will probably not want to create a mess for his successor to clean up.
     
  14. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    [​IMG]
    09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading

    The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday's early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.


    The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.


    Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.


    The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region - levels now seen since May 2017.


    On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week's swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.
     
  15. StraussX

    StraussX New Member
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    0912 #analysis #EURUSD #forex #socialtrading

    #EURUSD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and tumbled back below the key 1.10 psychological mark, albeit managed to recover around 25-pips from daily lows. The shared currency took a sharp knock in reaction to the German growth downgrade by the #Kiel #Institute for the World Economy, now expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3 following -0.1% in the previous quarter and meeting the criteria of a ‘technical recession’.


    #USD remained well supported by a strong follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid growing optimism over the resumption of the #USChina trade talks. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August bettered market expectations and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback. The headline PPI came in to show a rise of 0.1% during the reported month while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.3%.


    #TradeTensions between the world's two largest economies eased further on Wednesday after the US President #Trump said that he will delay a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill after Beijing exempted a range of American goods from its own tariffs. The market reaction, however, turned out to be rather muted, as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's key event risk - the highly anticipated #ECB monetary policy decision.


    The #ECB is widely expected to #lower #InterestRates further into the negative territory and also announce a new #QEprogram, though opinions on the stimulus package are divided and thus, increases the relevance of Thursday's rate decision. This will be followed by the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will further collaborate towards infusing volatility around the EUR crosses. From the US, the release of consumer inflation figures for the month of August might influence the USD price dynamics but seems more likely to be overshadowed by the post-ECB volatility.



    Short-term #TechnicalAnalysis

    From a technical perspective, the #EURUSD on Wednesday broke through a symmetrical triangle formation on hourly charts and confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown. However, the fact that the pair managed to defend the 1.10 handle on a closing basis warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. The pair now seems to have stabilized around 200-hour SMA, just below the triangle support breakpoint near the 1.1025 region. Any subsequent up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near mid-1.1000s, resistance marked by 38.2% Fibo. level of the 1.1251-1.0926 downfall, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to surpass the recent swing higher - around the 1.1070-80 region - and test 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the 1.1125-30 area en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.1175-80 region (100-day SMA).


    On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.10 handle, leading to a subsequent slide through the overnight swing lows - around the 1.0985, might now turn the pair to fall back towards the multi-year swing lows - around the 1.0925 area before eventually dropping farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region.
     

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