Forex News Forex Market Insights And News - Capital Street FX

[forexnews]

Forex Market Insights – EUR/USD Steady, GBP/USD Slips, and JPY Weakens in Friday Trade.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary​

Major currency pairs trade mixed on Friday as markets digest shifting central bank expectations and U.S. data uncertainty following the prolonged government shutdown. EUR/USD holds near two-week highs, GBP/USD weakens amid renewed UK fiscal concerns, USD/JPY remains near multi-month lows on BoJ hesitation, and AUD/USD edges higher, supported by firmer Chinese macro data and improved domestic fundamentals. The U.S. Dollar stays soft, limiting downside across risk-aligned currencies.​

---

Market Overview​

Forex markets remain range-bound yet directionally biased as shifting policy expectations shape sentiment across major pairs. The U.S. Dollar lingers near a two-week low as traders brace for delayed or missing U.S. economic data, placing greater weight on FOMC remarks for policy clarity. Eurozone GDP and Chinese economic releases influence broader FX flows, while UK fiscal concerns pressure GBP/USD ahead of the November budget. Meanwhile, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to fade, weighing heavily on the Yen. Commodity currencies find support from improved risk appetite and China’s latest economic prints.​

---

Technical Summary — Compact Table​

​

View attachment 1763130552561.png

[th]
​

​

---

Analyst Commentary per Asset​

---

EUR/USD – Bullish Bias​

EUR/USD holds near 1.1635 after Thursday’s rally, supported by ongoing Dollar weakness and diverging policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Markets assign a roughly 50% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, while ECB is expected to remain on hold through next year—reinforcing relative EUR strength. A break above the 50-day SMA remains the key trigger for fresh bullish momentum. Traders now await Eurozone Q3 GDP and statements from FOMC officials for directional cues.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 1.1603
Take Profit: 1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1569

​

---

GBP/USD – Bearish Bias​

GBP/USD drifts toward 1.3150 after the UK government dropped plans to raise income-tax thresholds, raising concerns about fiscal stability ahead of the November 26 budget. Weak UK data has reinforced expectations for a December Bank of England rate cut, amplifying downside pressure. However, Dollar softness limits deeper losses for now. Traders remain cautious as U.S. data disruptions could influence near-term Dollar movements.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 1.3186
Take Profit: 1.3027
Stop Loss: 1.3259

​

---

USD/JPY – Strong Bullish Bias​

USD/JPY trades near a nine-month high as markets lower expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi and government officials reinforce the preference for continued low rates, while warnings from Japanese authorities hint at possible intervention if volatility increases. The USD’s softness prevents sharper upside, but the structural trend remains favorable for USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 153.56
Take Profit: 156.01
Stop Loss: 152.23

​

---

AUD/USD – Neutral to Bearish Bias​

AUD/USD edges higher supported by Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data and Australia’s strong labor market. However, mixed Chinese figures and concerns over the RBA’s restrictive policy stance keep upside limited. The pair trades cautiously as U.S. Dollar softness provides short-term support.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 0.6556
Take Profit: 0.6497
Stop Loss: 0.6595

​

​

---

Key Takeaways​

​

• USD remains weak due to uncertainty surrounding delayed U.S. macro data.
• EUR/USD retains bullish momentum but needs a break above the 50-day SMA.
• GBP/USD pressured by UK fiscal uncertainty and softer economic outlook.
• USD/JPY supported by BoJ’s dovish stance, keeping the yen near multi-month lows.
• AUD/USD lifted by Chinese data but overall trend remains mixed.
• Markets await Eurozone GDP and key global releases for next directional moves.

​