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How can I, with 80-90% accuracy, tell which direction the price of a forex pair will head?

alphamaphie

New Member
The question perked my interest as to how accurate my trading was in comparison to the ‘somewhat inflated’ 80–90 % mentioned. After looking over my last 100 trades l had 39 losses. ; a 61 % win rate, but l achieved 20% account growth, over 4 months.

Succesfull trading of an 'edge' ( 61%) ,that’s an 11% edge! ( not much but enough) …over time, applied with an average risk to reward of 1:1.5, achieves mind blowing account growth over time. Those trades were achieved over the period of 4 months, so something like 5% growth per month.

So here’s the important bit ; Its a completely erroneous belief that you need anywhere near 80–90 percent win rates. A lot of people seem to think high quality trading is ridiculously accurate , high quality trading is just ridiculously diligent risk management.

The key to extracting money long term is the regimented application of a risk to reward ratio with a trading edge.

80–90 % is an inflated unrealistic number that people like to stat about in fake performance pamphlets, Instagram 'guru' posts and recorded screen swipe accounts that are teetering on blowing up. It's success rate hooks Uneducated greed and the fantasy of fast money. '

The reality of professional trading couldn’t be further from this , it is identifying arbitrage in markets and applying that edge in an extremely consistent, patient and methodical manner over and over again, to the point of complete boredom. It is extremely hard work, but that's all it really is.

61% for me, is solid, as it represents an edge that l apply long term to extract money from markets, l don't for one second ' wish ' or ' if only' dream of 90% win rate as l know how inflated and dangerous that number is from the hard facts and daily reality of consistent long term trading.

If you can achieve and maintain 80–90 % win rates with success over time, ( which you can’t) you’re either one in a million or you’re living with Peter Pan and chatting Bullshit to tinker bell.
 

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