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FOMC Indicates Possible Pause in Interest Rate Hikes, ECB Raises Rates Amid Inflation Concerns The FOMC meeting on Wednesday indicated that the Fed is very close to announce a pause and the range-bound response in Treasury yields suggests that there was no significant shift in rate...

US GDP Falls Short of Expectations and Inflation Rises: A Closer Look at the Numbers The risk appetite in global markets came under pressure while safe-haven demand has increased after US GDP and inflation data on Friday. The US GDP for the first quarter posted a big "bearish" surprise...

Dollar rebounds but risk of a fresh slide persists US and European stock indices are on the slippery slope, the Dollar index found enough buyers to rebound from 101 level after the dip on Monday. The selling catalyst was disappointing report from the Dallas Fed regarding activity in US...

Euro rises against dollar, technical chart signals new rally On the US and European stock markets, there is a lull, with US index futures trading near Monday's opening levels, and European indices slightly weaker. The dollar has gone on the defensive, indicating a search for yield in the...

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Surprises with Acceleration in April The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised with its acceleration in April, as the main index not only did not decrease according to the forecast from -11.5 to -18.0 points, but even jumped to 10.8 points, which...

US Bond Yields Rise Despite Dovish Retail Sales Figures The chances of the Federal Reserve keeping its policy unchanged in May have increased after the release of US production inflation data for March. Overall production inflation unexpectedly turned negative in March: prices fell by 0.5% in...

US CPI report boosts hunt for yield but rates markets remain cautious The report on inflation in the US boosted risk appetite on Wednesday, causing a sharp decline in the dollar. Overall inflation in the US slowed to 5% per year, which was better than the forecast of 5.2%. The dollar index...

Bearish Economic Reports Put US Equity Markets at Risk of Downturn Equity market investors are getting increasingly nervous and risk-averse as the US economy continues to surprise with bearish economic reports this week. On Tuesday, it was the JOTLS data and the ISM manufacturing report, on...

As banking system shocks subside the focus shifts to central banks’ battle with inflation The dollar index struggles to bounce back up after dropping to 102.50 level, in line with the earlier idea that the Fed is avoiding clear policy recommendations, while the ECB is showing more readiness...

Stock market rebound may help the Fed to gain confidence in its tightening course News related to Deutsche Bank shook financial markets on Friday, but the trend on Monday suggests that the market overreacted with panic: SPX futures topped 4000 points, gold fell by more than 1.5%. Shares of...

Stock markets plunge on Deutsche Bank worries as contagion risks grow The stock market is once again under pressure as worries about the banking crisis increase again, this time mainly on the European continent, after a brief respite. The STOXX 50, DAX, and French CAC 40 are all down more...

The Fed set to ease monetary policy in response to banking sector tensions, propping up risk assets as US economy is still in good shape Over the weekend, American politicians took steps to restore trust in the US banking system and prevent bank runs, but unfortunately two pretty big banks...

Markets look completely unprepared for dovish NFP report US equity indices continue to cling to key levels that currently separate the bearish and bullish markets. For the SP500 index, this level is 4000 points, around which it has been hovering since the end of February. On Thursday, futures...

Two questions ahead of today’s Powell Testimony Tuesday at the market was quite calm, despite the potential storm that Powell's testimony in Congress today is supposed to bring. The head of the Fed will have a tough time: back in January, he confidently spoke about disinflation in 2023 and...

EU inflation surprises prompt re-pricing of EU interest rate curve, lifts EUR Financial markets face a difficult choice between two narratives: a soft landing in key economies after a period of high inflation (thanks to the restart of China's economy) and signs of stubborn inflation that...

EURUSD bounce may fizzle out soon as price breaks through key bearish channel US Orders for durable goods - one of the key components of consumption, which is a decent proxy of households’ expectations of future incomes, posted decent gain in January. The headline reading declined MoM...

Is EURUSD primed for a reversal? Technical analysis says it is Incoming data on the US economy and the Fed's rhetoric pushed greenback higher to a new local high (105 on DXY). Dollar demand also rose against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical risks - in particular, China issued a...

US eco surprises gain momentum signaling Dollar has more room to rally January US CPI released on Tuesday was broadly in line with market expectations. Core and headline inflation were higher than expected, but given exceptionally strong Payrolls (+500K jobs in January) it was pretty clear...

Dollar to extend recovery this week as risk sentiment deteriorates Market sentiment this week will depend on how three key themes evolve. First, exceptionally strong US labor market data released last Friday poses the risk of a more hawkish Fed in 2023, which market participants will no...

Dollar major recovery becomes a real risk after surprisingly strong US Payrolls report US equities posted good performance on Thursday, with SPX almost testing 4200 points and NASDAQ jumping 3.56%, very close to 13000 points, the highest level since the end of August. The FOMC meeting was a...