Search results

Preview of the Fed meeting: 75 bp move is fully priced and “sell the facts” scenario is likely in the Dollar The Fed will likely yield to the hawkish market expectations and hike interest rate by 75 bp today. Nevertheless, even with such an aggressive move, it cannot be ruled out that the...

Despite expectations of 75 bp rate hike from the Fed tomorrow, Dot Plot is the key thing to watch US money markets appear to be confident that the Fed will deliver a 75 bp rate hike at the meeting tomorrow. With US inflation trending higher towards 40-year high, a 50bp move, while the target...

Resilient US consumption helps stock to recover but May NFP could bring Fed tightening bets back into the market The macro data on the US economy released on Friday showed that high inflation in April failed to stifle consumer momentum in an economy that has a history dating back to...

Flight from risk gains momentum, setting stage for a rally in Gold The flight from risk assets becomes more apparent on growing concerns about global slowdown and even recession, in particular, markets appear to be pricing in that the US economy will not be able to carry out soft landing...

Gloomy China data sows panic, but EURUSD still has a chance to rebound A glimmer of hope after equity markets’ rebound last Friday was dampened after release of China economic data on Monday. Industrial production in China contracted 2.9% YoY against the forecast of 0.4% growth, retail sales...

US April CPI could be the key catalyst for S&P 500 rebound, deeper greenback sell-off An attempt by S&P 500 to decisively break below 4000 points on Tuesday was not successful, however, the subsequent rebound has not yet found wide support among buyers. Retail and institutional sentiment...

Too difficult to resist to buy the dip as S&P 500 tumbles to crucial 4000 points support level Some stabilization in risk demand after yesterday's sell-off is helping currencies correlated with economic growth expectations (high-beta currencies) to regain some of what they lost yesterday...

Preview of the FOMC meeting: balance sheet run-off announcement is the key thing to watch The Fed is expected to deliver a 50 bp rate hike today and announce the start balance sheet runoff. Markets will be interested in the pace of QT, since this will determine supply of longer-maturity...

Reserve Bank of Australia hikes interest rate, vows to double down on fight with inflation The 10-year Treasury yield has finally reached an important 3% milestone, however, slipped below the level on lack of bearish consensus, greenback index stabilized at 103.50, the S&P 500 fell below 4100...

The long overdue USD pullback has finally happened. What's next? US 10Y Treasury yield bounced off the key 3% area, dragging down greenback and initiating a chain of pullbacks in other assets that have demonstrated exuberant moves recently. DXY fell 0.6%, the sell-off started from the “round”...

Bearish ECB signal sets the stage for further EURUSD decline, 1.05 level in sight Costly in terms of economic costs, the policy of “zero covid cases” forced the Chinese Central Bank to cut reserve ratio for banks by 25 bp on Monday. According to the PBOC, this should boost liquidity in the...

Gold is poised to retake $2000 level and here is why US inflation report for March released on Tuesday stirred debates about inflation peaking (core inflation 6.5% vs. 6.6% forecast, used car prices -3.8%), but the bearish impact on the USD was short-lived - Fed hawk Brainard came to the...

New cycle high in US CPI is not enough for greenback to push higher US CPI in March surprised on the upside adding some strength to greenback. Broad prices rose by 8.5% against the forecast of 8.4%. On a monthly basis, consumer price index jumped 1.2%: However, core inflation, which...

Technical setup in the Dollar Index suggests upside rebound is in cards The rebound in SPX over the past 10 days was in the 2% of the strongest bear market rallies (defined as a fall 20%+ from ATH) in nearly 100 years of observations, indicating speculative flows could play a good part in it...

What do you mean?

Dollar renews rally ahead of US payrolls release, USDJPY targets 125 Stagflation risks seem to take their toll and after a short pause European currencies and the Japanese yen continued to depreciate against greenback. The dollar index rose by almost half a percent advancing past 99.00...

Double bottom in EURUSD suggests bearish breakout towards 1.08 may be in cards Fixed-income markets of advanced economies show signs of recovery after a heavy sell-off on Tuesday. European currencies cede ground against USD after a brief rebound. US 10-year Treasury yield bounced off 2.40% and...

Breakout in USDJPY could signal new leg of the bullish rally with 7-year high as target Powell's speech yesterday definitely impressed investors as the Fed Chair took the opportunity to communicate a possibility of faster rate hikes which was interpreted as the policy bias of the Fed getting...

EURUSD forms a triangle pattern and downside breakout is likely Markets are expecting a 25bp rate hike from the Fed today and indications in Dot Plot for an additional rate increase of 90-100 bp this year. Forecasts of a higher terminal rate this year should be a positive surprise for the...

Greenback unwinds safe-haven premium, China Covid efforts in focus Economic news from China today beat expectations in a positive way, especially surprising was the growth of retail sales as market set quite low expectations on the figure. Restrictions on mobility inside the country during the...