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Key USD bearish threshold remains intact Eurozone inflation was materially higher than the consensus forecast in October, making it slightly difficult for the ECB to maintain a huge stimulus bias in the monetary policy. The data on Friday showed that the broad rise in prices in October...

Bearish signals mount for the European currency The S&P 500 hit a fresh high on Monday, despite the growing chances of policy tightening by the Fed as investors focus on surprises in US corporate reports and sliding Treasury yields. Tesla's capitalization has exceeded $ 1trillion on the back...

Stagflation may be soon become the biggest worry for financial markets Worries about so-called stagflation - a combination of low growth and high inflation - continue to mount among asset managers, the latest BofA report shows. In the last survey, the share of respondents who believe that...

UK employment report opens the door for Pound’s short-term gains The pound battles for a place under the sun after release of the latest jobs report. British firms increased hiring at a record pace in August, shortly before the end of the government's furlough scheme. Favorable dynamics of...

Bond markets discount weak NFP, focus is back on inflation Weaker-than-expected September NFP report put a drag on broad USD rally. On Monday greenback index struggles to resume advance, hovering not far from 94 points, forming a breakout “triangle” pattern. At the same time, the price...

Inflation threat worries US bonds American markets closed with gains, but US equity futures today are on a slippery slope largely due to the pressure from rising Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year securities broke through the local high of 1.55%, signaling the resumption of the rally after...

ISM data may boost chances for hawkish NFP outcome FX price action on late Monday showed that investors still favor dollar despite recent gains, and the story of China defaults weighs on demand for risk. Among the G10 currencies, NZD has the largest growth potential due to anticipated RBNZ...

Inflation threat puts central banks on alert Financial markets are increasingly discussing inflation surge as shortages arising in the commodity markets increase risk of price pressures being far more persistent that policymakers expect. After period of consolidation, commodity prices resumed...

Pullback in oil has well-defined support level The rotation of investors from developed economies with low interest rates to the US continued on Thursday. The core driver of this trend is accelerating growth of real interest rate in the US economy: The dollar index struggled to extend...

Oil prices poised to challenge yearly highs before the OPEC meeting The week of central bank meetings is over and the focus of market participants shifts to the US politics, energy markets, Treasuries sell-off and Eurozone inflation figures. If the US Congress cannot find a way out of the...

The Fed is about to unwind stimulus, but is the US economy ready for it? Risk assets came under serious pressure at the beginning of the week, although the first signs of a sell-off appeared as early as last Friday. S&P 500 futures were down 1% on Monday, the first support line can be...

US August inflation: more price gains ahead but not enough for September Fed policy shift US price pressures somewhat receded in August, reflecting mainly the cooling off in consumption hot spots which emerged after the lifting of social restrictions. These spots featured abnormal rise in...

Preview of the trading week: Watch out for FX and equity rotations before the Fed meeting The beginning of the week turned out to be quite calm and measured for FX space as investors are making necessary rotations before a number of central bank meetings next week, including the Fed. The focus...

The RBA gives green light to AUD decline, Euro waits for hawkish signals from the ECB As market volatility continues to dwindle, investors are likely to favor currencies where central banks are raising interest rates. However, paths of monetary policy are still highly dependent on a country's...

Key reasons why weak August NFP wasn’t a surprise. EURUSD weekly setup. The odds of a September Fed shift in policy retreated further after release of August NFP report last Friday. The payrolls gain was a big miss as it was three times less than consensus of 725K. Judging by the greenback’s...

Big negative surprise from the Conference Board. What are the takeaways for the NFP? Greenback struggles to take off from 92.50 support level ahead of US labor data for August. DXY rallied on Tuesday thanks to the outflow from Treasuries market as distant bond yields apparently rose in...

Record downturn in China's services sector could spark a new wave of risk-off After spending a day in consolidation, greenback could find enough buying interest and continued to fall in price on Tuesday. The US currency index tests support at 92.50 level. Long-term US bond yields continue to...

NFP report will decide the fate of September Fed QE announcement Powell stuck to the hawk line in Jackson Hole last week, but avoided specifics to allow himself room for maneuver at future meetings. The Fed chair hinted at the possibility of QE tapering start this year, which the markets...

ECB Minutes triggered minor Euro sell-off as the central bank’s dovish bias increased The ECB didn’t address QE tapering at its July meeting, showed the Minutes released on Thursday. Instead, the policymakers worked to clarify forward guidance on path of the interest rates - how inflation...

Demand for risk seems to hit ceiling before Powell's speech The wave of risk-on that swept markets in the first two days of the week apparently ebbs. Dollar rebounded, commodities struggle to extend the bounce, bond yields ticked higher while equity markets stay range-bound after the biggest...