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USD poised to renew highs on China Covid issues, FOMC expectations The dollar has got another growth driver. The PBOC unexpectedly lowered reference rate of CNY/USD, which may indicate its willingness to weaken yuan against US currency. This is usually seen as downside factor for Asian...

Market Watch March 7th: All eyes on commodity markets FX developments are now entirely subject to the buying frenzy in commodity markets as severe disruptions in supply chains become increasingly evident. Prices for certain commodities are updating highs at an unprecedented pace, rumors about...

Despite major escalation markets are still reluctant to price in major spillover effects from Ukraine conflict As geopolitical tensions increased sharply on Monday, policy tightening cycles of central banks and inflation challenges have been pushed deeper on the sidelines. The focus remains...

US CPI will likely surprise on the upside due to labor market imbalances On Wednesday, sellers in the sovereign debt markets take profits before release of the key inflation data point for the market (US CPI), yields pulled back from key resistance levels (2% on 10-year Treasuries, 0.25% on...

Dollar is back on growth track thanks to hawkish NFP, possible upside surprise in January CPI The surprisingly strong NFP report for January markedly eased pressure on the dollar as it reminded that the Fed is likely to lead a hawkish policy reassessment by the central banks of major...

Hawkish BoE and ECB put greenback under great pressure as policy gap with the Fed narrows Dollar reversed gains made in the first half of Thursday session with the DXY shedding nearly half a percentage point after EU and UK central banks signaled that they would be catching up with the Fed in...

EURUSD aims at 1.10 as the ECB will likely disappoint again next week There was a sign of relief on geopolitical front, welcomed by asset markets, after the Russian Foreign Ministry said that a war with Ukraine was “unthinkable”, hinting that diplomatic resolution of the conflict may be in...

USD benefits a surge in risk-off, bonds point to a possible Fed overreaction Asian and European markets are in the red on Monday with the weakness of US equities on past Friday being key catalyst of downward momentum. Investors increased demand for cash amid growing risk-off mood helping USD...

Post-Fed Minutes market rush eases, NFP in focus The rush in the markets after the Fed minutes has somewhat subsided and investors are turning their eye on the release of US labor market data today. According to the consensus forecast, the economy added 400K jobs while wages rose 0.4% on a...

FOMC December minutes: no time to wait The minutes of the last Fed meeting was a surprise for investors, despite the fact that Powell at the press conference clearly outlined the course for policy tightening. Inflation in the US is on the rise and the covid is expected to only fuel this trend...

US fiscal stimulus risk spoils Christmas rally A new week has come and it must be admitted that “contrarian” New Year rally, despite the storm of decisions by central banks last week, did not take place. Last Friday's pessimism seeped into investor sentiment on Monday, European markets and US...

Strong US PPI rise calls for decisive Fed response The cable rallied against the dollar on Wednesday thanks to release of a bullish inflation report which showed that the rise in consumer prices accelerated in November, beating forecasts. The headline inflation rate reached 4% against the...

Surging US inflation expectations suggest the Fed may act big in December The Fed’s decision time looms and markets appear to be increasingly sensitive to inflation reports from the US, the predictive power of which, regarding the policy of the Central Bank, is increasing. Suffice it to...

Fed’s bullish surprise this week may pave the way for new highs in USD This week is full of event risks thanks to a number of central banks in developed and EM economies holding their policy meetings, suggesting a high chance of significant market shifts in FX. Key among them is undoubtedly...

EURUSD May Continue Decline Ahead of ECB And Fed Meetings Next Week Unfavorable widening of the short-term rate differential has recently acted as the main driver of EURUSD weakness. The pressure on the common currency also stems from increasing carry-trade activity of European investors...

EURUSD looks vulnerable on dampening covid risk, aggressive Fed Markets continue to price in a positive view on how the story with the new covid strain will unfold. In addition to the positive statements of influential health officials in leading countries such as the US, it is also useful to...

Too early to bet on rebound On Monday, risk assets rebounded as reports over the weekend suggest that the bout of covid hysteria on Friday could be an overreaction. Air travel halts have apparently eased off over the weekend, while the WHO and South African researchers alleviated concerns...

Technical pullback looms in EURUSD The dollar rises a new high of this year (96.50 on DXY) amid Biden’s decision to extend the term of the current Fed Chairman Powell. Considering that Powell's main rival, Lael Brainard, is a champion of soft credit policy, the news had a positive effect on...

Dollar consolidates after a pullback, traders eye US CPI report High inflation and central banks’ reaction function to it continue to remain the major trading themes this week. On Wednesday, bond and FX USD markets will zero in on October US CPI report, where an upside surprise (inflation of...

USD may extend the rally on the FOMC hawkish surprise The dollar rose sharply on Friday, breaking through a corrective channel and bouncing off a key bullish support line (scenario discussed on Friday): One of the key drivers of the rally was US inflation report. Despite the fact that...