Search results

Deteriorating EU, China data spur bids on USD The dollar saw renewed buying pressure at the start of the week, DXY rose by more than 0.7% to 111.50 points. Market participants accumulate their dollar positions in anticipation of a strong NFP report on Friday as well as against the backdrop of...

EURUSD eyes test of 1.02, the ECB meeting may be of help Massive repricing of Fed rate path in 2023 saw dollar index falling to 110 points, EURUSD broke above parity while GBPUSD recovered above 1.15. The rally in the US market increased capitalization of key equity indices by an average of...

Ways of inflation are inscrutable The US inflation report came as a big surprise to many investors as despite solid signals for a drop below 8% (decline in new car sales, falling gasoline prices), headline inflation was quite persistent, inching lower marginally to 8.3%. Core inflation...

Markets brace for bullish CPI but room for the risk rally is limited Dollar retreat eased pressure on oil prices as Brent price flirted with $95/bbl level on Monday. Despite the bounce and momentum that may drive prices higher, there are clear bearish risks for the market. The key among these...

Fiscal packages in response to energy crisis untie the hands of ECB, Bank of England Chinese renminbi, being in a free fall, started to worry China central bank, which eventually responded quite decisively, reducing reserve ratio for banks from 8% to 6%. The new policy change will come into...

EURUSD remains glued to parity on expectations of uber-hawkish ECB this week European asset markets started the week with a fresh round of downside as Gazprom said gas supplies via Nord Stream 1 pipeline would be suspended indefinitely. The currencies of the European continent expectedly came...

There are few reasons to short greenback right now and here is why The Eurozone economic sentiment indicator decreased modestly from 98.9 to 97.6 points in August. Both industry and manufacturing saw deterioration in economic activity. At the same time, expectations of a recession in the...

Hawkish ECB hints in Jackson Hole help EURUSD to regain ground above parity Eurozone money markets on Monday point to a sharp strengthening of expectations that the ECB will raise rates by 75 basis points in September, as the ECB officials signaled over the weekend that they were ready to take...

FOMC Minutes: strong dollar will help to weather tough period of high inflation The level of 107 in dollar index (DXY) remains a hard nut to crack as a bullish retest failed yesterday, the Fed Minutes did not work as a catalyst for a sweeping move, although there were some solid grounds to...

Three key factors of short-term support of the Dollar Foreign trade indices of major energy importers continue to hit new lows and markets are increasingly focused on how governments will respond to rising natural gas prices. At the same time, the weakening of the yuan and a number of...

EURUSD breaks bearish channel on the CPI report signaling about possible medium-term reversal Equity markets made another leap upwards amid a buildup of expectations of a slight dovish shift in the Fed policy. This was facilitated by release of the US July CPI, which showed that inflation in...

Better than expected China inflation hints US CPI report may deliver bullish surprise today US bonds remain under selling pressure ahead of release of the US inflation report today. This makes it more difficult for yields to rise further in the event of a positive surprise, however, the near...

Decreasing US economic uncertainty pushes equity prices back into bull territory Incoming data on the US economy continues to surprise on the upside, triggering massive unwinding of recession bets and luring investors back into risk assets on decreasing uncertainty. One such report was the...

Upbeat US ISM release suggests hopes of Fed dovish shift may fade quickly Provocative from Chinese point of view, Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the promised tough response from the Chinese authorities met with a rather tepid market reaction yesterday, the main US indices closed in a...

Despite risk of slowing Fed tightening, Dollar correction may be over and here is why The planned visit of US House speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has the potential to exacerbate relations between the US and China, which in the foreign exchange market will be expressed in the strengthening...

Was market reaction to US GDP number too emotional? Looking under the hood, it may seem so Demand for risk increased markedly, greenback declined and US bond yields took out recent lows (2.8% for 10-year bonds, 2.9% for 2-year bonds), finding an equilibrium at the lowest levels since April...

Fed signals increasing policy flexibility, Euro takes dovish clues from persistent inflation US equities rose and the near end of the yield curve fell following the Fed meeting (2-year Notes 3.1% -> 2.99%), as the Fed rhetoric began to shift from high inflation to a potential economic...

Preview of the FOMC meeting: hints on interest rate path in 4Q could be the key thing to watch Greenback index continues to consolidate in a tight range on Wednesday in the run-up to FOMC meeting. The range has been forming for about a week and indicates short-term equilibrium in USD supply...

Despite Dollar correction the risk of EURUSD retesting parity is high The Fed week is unlikely to be as turbulent as the last week featured with ECB meeting as the risk of surprising policy decisions at Wednesday meeting appears to be low. Chances of a “super-aggressive” 100bp rate hike...

Despite the rally, the risks for EURUSD, GBPUSD are skewed to the downside Rising optimism about returns in risk assets and narrowing gap in the expected pace of tightening between the Fed and other central banks were the main drivers of broad USD sell-off on Tuesday. The dollar index (DXY)...