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Gas shortages, risks of cautious ECB decision suggest downside risks for Euro remain high The long squeeze in greenback continues on Tuesday, the dollar index (DXY) sank by almost 1%, Euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar scored the largest gains among the major currency pairs against the...

Dollar can extend pullback as markets price out 100 bp rate hike in July Last week was marked by highly volatile expectations regarding the FOMC July decision: after release of the CPI for June, which showed inflation accelerating to 9.1%, the chances of a 100 bp rate hike soared to 84%, but...

Markets brace for 100 bp July rate hike and the room for dovish surprise grows EURUSD volatility around the round 1.00 level remains elevated which creates ripple waves in other USD cross-pairs. After yesterday's "shocking" CPI release, markets shifted expectations of the upcoming July rate...

Minor upside surprise in US CPI is likely priced as fuel prices continued to rise in June Today is a special day for financial markets as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI for June. It's no secret that the Fed tied monetary policy to developments in inflation, so its...

Greenback may stay in the uptrend for a while as key drivers are set to remain intact The bullish momentum in the dollar remains intact at the start of the week with EURUSD testing the round 1.00 level followed by a technical rebound to 1.006. Given ongoing risks of an energy crisis in the...

Strong NFP report will likely fuel EURUSD drop to parity The dollar continued to strengthen on Monday after release of US labor market report on Friday, which did not confirm market pessimism about the US economy, reinforcing the view that the US is now an "island of stability" for large...

US labor market reports can extend relief rally in risk-assets as investors are desperate for positive growth signals The dollar remains close to fresh highs on Thursday, the minor retracement was also reflected in revived modest demand for risk, the key Asian and European markets gain more...

Fears of energy crisis may drive Euro to parity against USD Despite sharp strengthening of the dollar on Tuesday and growing pessimism on European equity markets, the S&P 500 managed to neutralize selling pressure closing in green, Nasdaq rose 1.68%, the Dow Industrial Index fell 0.42%. The...

Surging USD indicates investors’ search for a safe heaven is a key market driver Global economic growth optimism is fading rapidly, with major central banks vying to announce a "material" deterioration in real output forecasts and rising risks of stagflation. On Tuesday, the Bank of England...

Recession risks keep dollar bid, set to curb risk appetite further Major currency pairs struggle to choose direction on Monday, European indices move back into modest positive territory, US futures slip with S&P 500 futures trying to defend the 3800 level in order to prevent development of...

Markets are worried about a recession and the trend will only gain momentum The toxic mix of hawkish central banks ready to tighten monetary policy "no matter what" and a series of weak macroeconomic data on the US and European economies has become a catalyst for sell-off in risk assets...

Dollar resumes rally and stocks fall on hawkish Powell comments in Sintra The dollar remains near the highs of this year, a significant rally was observed on Wednesday after the speech of the Fed head Powell in Sintra. After the Powell testimonial in US Congress featured with marked dovish...

Inflation in Germany eases, taking off some pressure on the ECB to deliver faster rate hikes Signs of escalation in geopolitical tensions and fresh warnings of recession in top economies pushed stock markets off balance, with the S&P 500 closing down 2% and Nasdaq shedding 3% on Tuesday...

Two reasons to sell the Dollar this week Stock markets posted solid gains on Friday delivering a crushing blow to seemingly dominating bearish sentiment in risk assets. The catalyst for the rally appears to have been speech of Fed Powell to the US Congress last week, in which he acknowledged...

Another day of relief rally in equities keeps dollar under pressure A batch of latest estimates of PMIs in Eurozone released yesterday triggered a wave of mild risk-off and showed how the difference in expected growth rates between the EU and other economies is becoming an increasingly...

S&P 500 is again the red and more downside seems likely Risk assets traded in the red on Wednesday, with the dollar rebounding from its recent short-term downtrend as debates about impending recession successfully enters the mainstream. Several large investment banks have already estimated...

EURUSD is poised to break 1.06 but further upside looks limited After a turbulent past week, calm has finally returned to the markets. Demand for risk assets slowly recovers: European indices have been rising for the third day in a row, US futures rebounded by more than 1.5% on Tuesday. The...

FED goes all-in to fight inflation and markets are yet to grasp this shift in the policy stance The tectonic shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy, according to which the regulator no longer expects that inflation will naturally find its way to the target level and goes all in to suppress it...

Central banks of major economies fail to keep up with the Fed tightening pace Volatility in FX market remains stubbornly high, a series of upside surprises in inflation data for May apparently caused "tectonic shifts" in policy stances of many central banks, which rushed to drop hints about...

The Fed is ready to pay a high price to suppress inflation The Fed raised key interest rate by 75 basis points and signaled that a similar move could be expected in July. The announced pace of tightening means that the federal funds rate is likely to be above 3% by the end of the year...