Commodity Market Analysis And Over with Capital Street FX

[forexnews]

Gold and Silver Stay Bullish Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks; Crude and Natural Gas Hold Key Technical Levels.​

Gold and silver prices show cautious trading as markets await a potential Trump-Xi call amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, crude oil and natural gas hover near key levels, influenced by a stronger US Dollar, supply concerns, and mixed economic signals from global markets.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• Gold Holds Gains as Traders Await Trump-Xi Trade Talks
• Silver Eyes Breakout Above 2024 High Near $34.90
• Crude Oil Stays Firm Despite Dollar Strength, Supply Risks Loom
• Natural Gas Tests Key Resistance, Awaits Breakout Confirmation Signal

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold price trades without clear intraday direction as markets await a possible call between Presidents Trump and Xi.​

Gold (XAU/USD) fluctuates between modest gains and slight losses ahead of the European session on Wednesday, staying near a nearly four-week high reached the previous day. The US Dollar has held onto overnight gains from a six-week low, supported by hopes of potential talks between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. This, along with a generally positive sentiment in equity markets, weighs on the precious metal. However, investors remain cautious amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal outlook also temper market optimism, providing some support to gold. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its easing stance and cut rates further in 2025 limit aggressive USD buying, helping to cap downside risks for the non-yielding metal.

Technical Overview With Chart:

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• Moving Averages:
• Exponential:
• MA 10: 3325.6433 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 3304.7270 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 3225.7999 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• Simple:
• MA 10: 3326.0296 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 3294.0008 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 3242.1949 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.3554 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 90.7980 | Buy Zone | Neutral
• Resistance And Support Levels:
• R1: 3405.2599 | R2: 3480.1068
• S1: 3162.9588 | S2: 3088.1119
• Overall Sentiment: Bullish
• Market Direction: Buy
• Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3338.00 | Take Profit: 3415.60 | Stop Loss: 3297.24

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SILVER​

XAG/USD buyers maintain control around the mid-$34.00 range, trading just below the year-to-date high.​

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to build on its overnight rebound from below $34.00, trading in a tight range during Wednesday’s Asian session. The metal hovers near $34.50, largely unchanged for the day but still close to Monday’s year-to-date high. Technically, this week’s breakout above the $33.80 resistance—the upper limit of a multi-week range—has encouraged bullish sentiment. Daily chart oscillators remain positive and well clear of overbought levels, suggesting upward momentum may continue in the near term. A decisive move above the $34.80–$34.90 zone, which marks the YTD high and October 2024’s 12-year peak, would reinforce the bullish outlook and could push silver toward the next target near $35.66, the March 2012 swing high, before potentially reclaiming $36.00 for the first time since February 2012. On the downside, dips below $34.00 could offer buying opportunities, with support expected near the previous resistance around $33.65. However, a sustained break below this level might drag XAG/USD down to the $33.00 round number, followed by strong support at $32.75–$32.70. A decisive break below this zone could shift the short-term bias toward the bears.

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[forexnews]

Commodity Analysis – Commodities Surge as Gold Hits Six-Week High, Silver Breaks Records. - 01/12/2025​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Commodities open the week with a strong but cautious upward bias as precious metals surge on rising Fed rate-cut expectations, crude oil stabilizes amid geopolitical uncertainty, and natural gas extends its breakout above multi-week resistance. While bullish momentum remains dominant across major commodities, several markets display signs of overbought conditions or supply-driven hesitation, prompting traders to remain selective ahead of key U.S. data releases.

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Market Overview
The broader commodity market is trading with a constructive tone supported by a softer U.S. Dollar, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical risk flows. Gold and Silver continue to attract safe-haven interest amid heightened Russia–Ukraine tensions and declining U.S. yields. Crude oil edges higher despite persistent oversupply concerns, while natural gas maintains strong upside after breaking out of its consolidation phase. Traders now focus on high-impact U.S. PMI figures that could shape market sentiment for the rest of the week.

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Technical Summary (Compact Table) — Major Commodities

Commodity	RSI	Stochastic	Trend Bias	Support Levels	Resistance Levels	Trade Suggestion
Gold (XAU/USD)	65.17	84.36	Bullish	S1: 4010.31 / S2: 3935.66	R1: 4251.96 / R2: 4326.61	Buy @ 4209.00, TP 4316.90, SL 4150.00
Silver (XAG/USD)	72.35	77.83	Bullish–Overbought	S1: 54.21 / S2: 52.52	R1: 57.40 / R2: 57.85	Buy @ 55.59, TP 57.86, SL 54.43
Crude Oil (WTI)	51.25	49.69	Bullish	S1: 57.33 / S2: 56.29	R1: 60.69 / R2: 61.73	Buy @ 59.33, TP 60.74, SL 58.71
Natural Gas (NG)	68.70	87.99	Bullish–Overextended	S1: 3.89 / S2: 3.66	R1: 4.66 / R2: 4.89	Buy @ 4.68, TP 4.87, SL 4.58

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Analyst Commentary Per Commodity

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GOLD (XAU/USD) — Bullish, Supported by Fed Cut Expectations
Gold trades near a six-week high as expectations of a December Fed rate cut continue to pressure the U.S. Dollar, pushing demand toward safe-haven metals. Dovish comments from Fed policymakers lifted rate-cut probabilities and drove USD to a two-week low, strengthening Gold’s underlying bid. Geopolitical tensions from the Russia–Ukraine conflict add another layer of support. While momentum remains bullish, traders remain cautious ahead of today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which could trigger intraday volatility.

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SILVER (XAG/USD) — Strong Uptrend but Overbought
Silver extends its record-breaking rally above $57.50 as bullish sentiment accelerates following a CME/Comex outage and rising Fed rate-cut expectations. Price remains strongly above the 100-day EMA at $45.60, confirming a powerful structural uptrend. However, elevated RSI levels signal overbought conditions, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. A pullback toward the mid-Bollinger band at $51.29 would still preserve the bullish trend, while deeper declines may retest the 100-day EMA.

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CRUDE OIL — Supported by Geopolitics but Pressured by Supply
Crude oil edges higher, gaining 0.64% as geopolitical concerns overshadow ongoing oversupply risks. Markets reacted to complications surrounding peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, raising doubts about a quick resolution or easing of sanctions on Russian crude. At the same time, OPEC+ reinstated an additional 137,000 bpd in December capacity, and non-OPEC supply remains robust. While the near-term tone is mildly bullish, broader sentiment remains cautious due to structural supply headwinds.

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NATURAL GAS — Breakout Momentum Intact
Natural gas strengthens above $4.79 after breaking a multi-week resistance zone, supported by a rising trendline and firm EMA alignment. The move continues a pattern of higher lows since mid-November, with bullish pressure remaining intact. RSI near 70 and upper wick rejections at $4.95 signal minor overbought conditions, but the trend remains constructive as long as price holds above $4.65. A clean break above $4.95 opens the door toward the next upside objective at $5.09.

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AI Q&A — Top 5 Market Questions
1. Is Gold likely to continue rising this week?
Yes—Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tension support further upside, but US PMI data may cause short-term volatility.
2. Is Silver overheating at current levels?
Partially—trend remains bullish, but overbought signals suggest consolidation before another leg higher.
3. What is limiting Crude Oil’s upside despite geopolitical support?
Oversupply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers is capping gains, keeping the trend only moderately bullish.
4. Can Natural Gas reach above $5.00?
Yes—if price breaks $4.95 decisively, momentum could carry it toward $5.09, supported by strong EMA structure.
5. Which commodity has the strongest bullish setup right now?
Gold shows the cleanest bullish structure supported by fundamentals, technicals, and macro catalysts.

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