Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rebounds, but the outlook remains highly uncertain

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have partially recovered and returned to 4,850 USD. The market is focused on Fed-related news and overall risk sentiment. Discover more in our analysis for 3 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) is supported by a solid fundamental backdrop but shows technical sell signals
• The market still needs gold as a safe-haven asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 February 2026: 4,900

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose by more than 3% on Tuesday to 4,858 USD per ounce amid renewed buying activity after a sharp decline over the previous two days.

The precious metal fell by nearly 5% a day earlier, with Friday’s drop marking the largest single-day decline in more than a decade. The trigger was news that US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. The market perceived him as a more hawkish candidate compared to other contenders, increasing concerns about a potential tightening of monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the index resumes growth

The US 30 index sees increased volatility, with the uptrend prevailing once again. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6 in December
• Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI to 52.6 points, the highest level in approximately the past 40 months and well above the forecast and the previous reading, indicates a transition of the US industrial sector from contraction to expansion.

For the US 30 index, this news is generally positive. The index is heavily weighted towards real-sector companies and cyclical businesses that are sensitive to industrial conditions, domestic demand, and capital expenditures.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD in doubt: lots of risks, but also lots of confidence

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1793 at the end of the week as the US dollar remains in demand as a safe-haven asset. Discover more in our analysis for 6 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair may resume its upward trajectory after a pause
• Demand for the US dollar is driven by market interest in safe-haven assets
• EURUSD forecast for 6 February 2026: 1.1760 or 1.1820

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the EURUSD rate looks uninspiring, hovering around 1.1793. Demand for the US dollar has strengthened amid broad sell-offs in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, which has fuelled interest in the currency as a safe-haven asset.

The USD also gained notable support after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Markets view Warsh as favouring balance sheet reduction and a more cautious approach to monetary easing. This has also helped ease concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index resumed growth after correction

The DE 40 stock index continues to recover after the correction, with the uptrend remaining intact. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.9% in January compared to December last year
• Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

German industrial production data represents a significantly weaker-than-expected result, coming in at −1.9% m/m compared to expectations of −0.2% and the previous reading of +0.2%. For the DE 40 index, this typically implies a short-term deterioration in sentiment, as the indicator is directly linked to business activity, capacity utilisation, and future corporate earnings trends in an industry-oriented economy.

The short-term impact on the DE 40 is likely to be restraining. The index includes large companies that depend on the industrial cycle, external demand, and business investment activity. Weak output data increases the likelihood of downward revisions to profit expectations in cyclical sectors, which is typically reflected in a more cautious valuation of equities.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index enters downtrend

After reaching its all-time high, the US 500 has entered a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week
• Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US initial jobless claims (231 thousand versus a forecast of 212 thousand and 209 thousand the previous week) provides a moderately negative short-term signal for the US 500 index, as it points to a more noticeable cooling of the labour market than the consensus expectation. At the same time, it is important to consider the scale: the level of claims remains below crisis levels and closer to the historically normal range.

For the US 500 index, the key factor in such conditions is typically the reaction of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate. If the market interprets the increase in claims as a factor reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening, some of the negative impact on stocks may be offset through lower bond yields and improved valuations of companies’ future cash flows.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

Despite increased volatility, the US 30 index has reached a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US retail sales for January showed no growth, coming in at 0.0%
• Market impact: the data has a mixed impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US monthly retail sales at 0.0%, below expectations of 0.4% and a previous reading of 0.6%, forms a moderately negative macroeconomic signal for the US 30 index in the short term, as it indicates a noticeable cooling of consumer demand relative to market expectations.

This news is generally positive for the US 30 index. The structure of the index is largely oriented towards real-sector companies and cyclical businesses that are sensitive to industrial conditions, domestic demand, and capital expenditure.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD continues to rise: why the Fed will not be able to weaken gold in March

Employment growth and positive US economic data failed to provide sufficient support to the USD, while XAUUSD quotes continue to rise and are testing the 5,070 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 12 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 231 thousand, projected at 222 thousand
• Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 48 thousand, currently at 130 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 12 February 2026: 5,280

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD forecast indicates that gold prices continue their upward trajectory, trading near 5,070 USD per ounce.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD on the verge of a breakout: how a decline in US CPI and RBA policy may strengthen the AUD

After testing the 2023 highs, the AUDUSD pair is forming a correction before a further rise. Quotes are hovering around 0.7050. Discover more in our analysis for 13 February 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US core Consumer Price Index: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.5%
• Inflation above 3.0% in Australia is unacceptable, according to the RBA
• AUDUSD forecast for 13 February 2026: 0.7140

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has strong chances to continue recovering against the USD after completing the current correction. At this stage, the pair is trading around 0.7050.

The core CPI measures changes in the cost of goods and services from the consumer’s perspective. This index is a key gauge of consumer purchasing dynamics and inflation. Fundamental analysis for 13 February 2026 takes into account that the actual January core CPI reading may decline to 2.5% compared to the previous period, indicating easing inflationary pressure.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD in neutral: statistics will determine everything

The USDCAD pair stands at 1.3616 on Monday. The focus is on fresh inflation data from Canada. Find out more in our analysis for 16 February 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• The USDCAD pair stabilised after last week’s volatility
• Investors are focused on Canadian inflation data due on Tuesday
• USDCAD forecast for 16 February 2026: 1.3490 or 1.3725

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD pair starts the week at 1.3616. Previously, the Canadian dollar declined moderately but managed to retain most of its weekly gains thanks to signals of slowing inflation in the US.

The focus is on Canada’s January CPI, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Annual inflation is expected to remain at 2.4%. This could influence expectations regarding the Bank of Canada’s future policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index is trading sideways

The US 500 tested the support level and entered a sideways channel, although the downtrend still prevails. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 130 thousand in January
• Market impact: the data negatively impacts the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of January US employment data forms a moderately positive yet mixed signal for the US 500 index. Job growth of 130 thousand versus an expected 66 thousand, along with a decline in unemployment to 4.3%, confirms economic resilience. This is important for the equity market, as a strong labour market typically supports consumer demand, corporate revenues, and earnings expectations for the coming quarters.

At the same time, this report reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Stronger employment and lower unemployment imply that the Federal Reserve has fewer reasons to move quickly towards rate cuts. This may be accompanied by higher Treasury yields and an increased cost of capital for businesses.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Buyers attempt to stabilise GBPUSD after the sell-off

The GBPUSD rate is correcting after a sharp decline, but weak UK labour market data continues to weigh on the pair. The rate currently stands at 1.3557. Find out more in our analysis for 18 February 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Weak labour market data increased pressure on the British pound
• The market strengthened expectations of Bank of England rate cuts in the coming months
• The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, the highest since early 2021

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair is undergoing a correction after an aggressive decline in the previous session. However, buyers defended the key support level at 1.3525, allowing the pair to stabilise near local lows.

The British pound came under pressure following the release of weak UK labour market data, which reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may shift towards cutting interest rates in the coming months.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team