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Forex News USD/CAD

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USD/CAD Pair Value Analysis: higher than 20-day MA however trapped in a very falling channel
  1. USD/CAD pair remains stuck in a very falling channel, as per the hourly chart.
  2. The 100- and 200-hour averages are teasing a bullish crossover.
The USD/CAD pair is sitting simply higher than the 20-day average at 1.4036 at press time, having hit a high of 1.4078 in early Asia. The Forex currency pair has pulled back from session highs despite the upcoming bullish crossover of the 100&200-hour averages.

While the upcoming bullish cross suggests the path of least resistance is to the upper facet, Monday's Doji candle and Tuesday's bearish follow through recommend otherwise. The Forex pair, therefore, risks falling to the 200-hour average at 1.4022 - 1.40.

A channel break-out, if confirmed, would imply a finish of the drop from the March three high of 1.4151. However, stronger proof of bullish breakout would be higher than Monday's high of 1.4153.
 
USD/CAD: Oil still holding back CAD gains – CIBC
Analysts at CIBC see the USD/CAD pair to still be hovering around 1.41 by the end of next year, held back by Canada’s trade imbalance.

Key Quotes:
“Oil’s modest recovery over the past couple of weeks has seen the loonie pick up some strength relative to the weakness we saw back in mid-March, when the pandemic first ensued. But oil prices are still sitting at low levels, and the trend back to risk assets looks vulnerable, so we don’t expect the C$ to hold onto that strength in the nearterm.”

“Markets could be pricing in slightly too much optimism as of right now. As the reality of depressed equity earnings, and the limitations on the recovery by the potential for a second wave set in, that would see a stall in oil’s rebound, allowing USD/CAD to reach 1.41 by June and ending Q3 at 1.43.”


“Looking ahead to the first half of 2021, we expect the C$ to strengthen alongside a more pronounced economic recovery, whose timing is likely dependent on the evolution of the virus and progress towards a vaccine. Even so, Canada’s weak trade record in the last cycle points to the need for a more competitive exchange rate in the longer-term, as the economy weans itself off of debtfinanced consumption and housing as sources of growth.”


source
 

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