Forex News USD/CAD
- Thread starter HotForexsignal
- Start date
HotForexsignal
Active Member
USD/CAD Price Analysis: Wedge breakout fails to encourage bulls
USD/CAD is suffering to collect upside traction notwithstanding a bullish continuation setup on the 4-hour chart.
The pair broke out of a falling wedge sample on Monday, signaling a continuation of the recent rally from the December low of 1.2951.
The post-breakout upside, however, stalled at 1.3278 on Tuesday, allowing sellers to push the spot lower back to levels close to 1.3250 where it is presently trading.
Tuesday’s high of 1.3278 is now the stage to overcome for the bulls. A break better would reveal the latest excessive of 1.3329.
Alternatively, if sellers manage to establish a secure foothold underneath 1.3225 (Feb. 17 low), additional losses in the direction of 1.3185 might be seen. That degree marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.2951 to 1.3329.
- USD/CAD is at the offer notwithstanding the falling wedge breakout on the 4H chart.
- Tuesday's high of 1.3278 wishes to breached to affirm a bullish revival.
USD/CAD is suffering to collect upside traction notwithstanding a bullish continuation setup on the 4-hour chart.
The pair broke out of a falling wedge sample on Monday, signaling a continuation of the recent rally from the December low of 1.2951.
The post-breakout upside, however, stalled at 1.3278 on Tuesday, allowing sellers to push the spot lower back to levels close to 1.3250 where it is presently trading.
Tuesday’s high of 1.3278 is now the stage to overcome for the bulls. A break better would reveal the latest excessive of 1.3329.
Alternatively, if sellers manage to establish a secure foothold underneath 1.3225 (Feb. 17 low), additional losses in the direction of 1.3185 might be seen. That degree marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.2951 to 1.3329.
HotForexsignal
Active Member
USD/CAD Pair Value Analysis: higher than 20-day MA however trapped in a very falling channel
While the upcoming bullish cross suggests the path of least resistance is to the upper facet, Monday's Doji candle and Tuesday's bearish follow through recommend otherwise. The Forex pair, therefore, risks falling to the 200-hour average at 1.4022 - 1.40.
A channel break-out, if confirmed, would imply a finish of the drop from the March three high of 1.4151. However, stronger proof of bullish breakout would be higher than Monday's high of 1.4153.
- USD/CAD pair remains stuck in a very falling channel, as per the hourly chart.
- The 100- and 200-hour averages are teasing a bullish crossover.
While the upcoming bullish cross suggests the path of least resistance is to the upper facet, Monday's Doji candle and Tuesday's bearish follow through recommend otherwise. The Forex pair, therefore, risks falling to the 200-hour average at 1.4022 - 1.40.
A channel break-out, if confirmed, would imply a finish of the drop from the March three high of 1.4151. However, stronger proof of bullish breakout would be higher than Monday's high of 1.4153.
USD/CAD: Oil still holding back CAD gains – CIBC
Analysts at CIBC see the USD/CAD pair to still be hovering around 1.41 by the end of next year, held back by Canada’s trade imbalance.
Key Quotes:
“Oil’s modest recovery over the past couple of weeks has seen the loonie pick up some strength relative to the weakness we saw back in mid-March, when the pandemic first ensued. But oil prices are still sitting at low levels, and the trend back to risk assets looks vulnerable, so we don’t expect the C$ to hold onto that strength in the nearterm.”
“Markets could be pricing in slightly too much optimism as of right now. As the reality of depressed equity earnings, and the limitations on the recovery by the potential for a second wave set in, that would see a stall in oil’s rebound, allowing USD/CAD to reach 1.41 by June and ending Q3 at 1.43.”
“Looking ahead to the first half of 2021, we expect the C$ to strengthen alongside a more pronounced economic recovery, whose timing is likely dependent on the evolution of the virus and progress towards a vaccine. Even so, Canada’s weak trade record in the last cycle points to the need for a more competitive exchange rate in the longer-term, as the economy weans itself off of debtfinanced consumption and housing as sources of growth.”
source
Analysts at CIBC see the USD/CAD pair to still be hovering around 1.41 by the end of next year, held back by Canada’s trade imbalance.
Key Quotes:
“Oil’s modest recovery over the past couple of weeks has seen the loonie pick up some strength relative to the weakness we saw back in mid-March, when the pandemic first ensued. But oil prices are still sitting at low levels, and the trend back to risk assets looks vulnerable, so we don’t expect the C$ to hold onto that strength in the nearterm.”
“Markets could be pricing in slightly too much optimism as of right now. As the reality of depressed equity earnings, and the limitations on the recovery by the potential for a second wave set in, that would see a stall in oil’s rebound, allowing USD/CAD to reach 1.41 by June and ending Q3 at 1.43.”
“Looking ahead to the first half of 2021, we expect the C$ to strengthen alongside a more pronounced economic recovery, whose timing is likely dependent on the evolution of the virus and progress towards a vaccine. Even so, Canada’s weak trade record in the last cycle points to the need for a more competitive exchange rate in the longer-term, as the economy weans itself off of debtfinanced consumption and housing as sources of growth.”
source
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