Forex News Forex Market News

[UsaForexsignal]

Forex Market News - Dollar Faces Weekly Drop Again as Positive Data not Enough, Experts Warn


The dollar looks set to post a second-straight weekly decline Friday, shrugging off a wave positive data earlier in the week , and can still do so as most of the great news has already been priced in, Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.01% to 91.55.

Data earlier in the week including retail sales and initial jobless claims surprised to the upside, but that drew little support to the dollar. The humdrum reaction suggests "the positive effect of Biden’s economic stimulus package and good vaccination progress within the US is essentially priced in," Commerzbank said. "Strong U.S. data cannot support the U.S. dollar."

With most of the strong data and positive vaccine news now priced in, the greenback will struggle to form gains within the short-term.

The immediate horizon, meanwhile, doesn't offer much reason for optimism for dollar bulls. A hand from the the Federal Reserve System remains always off as Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank was "highly unlikely" to boost rates before 2022.

"We've said we expect to stay rates where they're until meet three-part test," Powell said Wednesday at a virtual event organized by the Economic Club of Washington. The three part test includes maximum employment, inflation reaching 2%, and on target to run moderately above 2% for a few time.

Biden’s new infrastructure plan, aimed toward long-term economic momentum, however, could provide the ammo needed for the dollar to rediscover its form, but progress on the legislative measure is unlikely until the summer.

"The infrastructure plan is contentious, and if it were to pass Congress, would only become more concrete within the summer, […] for now, the plans are too abstract to support the dollar on a sustainable basis," Commerzbank added.

 

[UsaForexsignal]

Forex Market News - Bitcoin slumps 14% as pullback from record gathers pace

Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, fell the maximum amount as 14% to $51,541 on Sunday, reversing most of the large gains it remodeled the past week.

Bitcoin was last trading down 10% at $53,991 as of 1320 GMT, a whopping $12,000 below record highs assail Wednesday. Smaller rival Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 10% to $2,101.

Luke Sully, CEO at digital asset treasury specialist Ledgermatic, said in an email that folks "may have sold on the news of the facility outage in China and not the impact it actually had on the network".

"The power failure does expose a fundamental weakness; that although the Bitcoin network is decentralized the mining of it's not," Sully added.

Some widely-followed block chain analysts on Twitter pointed to a pointy drop by "hash rate" thanks to the outage.

Hash rate refers to the volatility index that measures the processing capacity of the whole Bitcoin network, and it determines the facility required by miners to supply new Bitcoins.

"Typically shocks to hash rate don't cause price drops. A hash rate reduction slows transactions, which ironically makes it harder to maneuver coins to exchanges purchasable. The recent price drop is well within the bounds of typical volatility, it's noise not signal," said Edan Yago, co-founder at Bitcoin-based decentralized finance protocol Sovran.

The retreat in Bitcoin also comes after Turkey's central bank banned the utilization of cryptocurrencies for purchases on Friday.

Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said cryptocurrencies had been ripe for a pullback.

"The market has become overly aggressive and bullish on everything," said Edward Moya. "It could are any bearish headline that would have triggered this reaction."

Many cryptocurrency markets operate 24/7, setting the stage for price swings at unpredictable hours. Historically, retail and day traders have driven the moves.

Despite the sudden selloff, bitcoin remains up 89% thus far in 2021, driven by its mainstream acceptance as an investment and a way of payment, amid the push of retail cash into stocks, exchange-traded funds and other risky assets.

 

[TradeForexcopier]

Forex Market News - Risk-on likely to increase into the weekly opening

What you would like to understand on Monday, April 19:

The American currency extended its decline against most major rivals because the week came to an end, as risk appetite led.

US indexes kept rallying, with the DJIA and therefore the S&P 500 reaching record highs, as solid US macroeconomic figures hint at a considerable economic comeback from the pandemic collapse. Despite the upbeat mood, US Treasury yields managed to recover some ground. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note settled at 1.59% after bottoming for the week at 1.52%.

The EUR/USD pair held near but below the 1.2000 mark, while GBP/USD soared past 1.3800, ending the week within the 1.3830 price zone.

The Canadian dollar advanced against its American rival, but the Australian currency edged marginally lower on Friday, despite the risk-on mood.

Gold prices persisted to weekly gains, ending the week at $ 1,776.30 a ounce. Petroleum prices also finished the week with substantial gains, with WTI at $ 63.13 a barrel.

Coronavirus: The US and therefore the UK continue their immunization program, advantaging most European countries, which suffer from a replacement wave of covid. Different countries have announced new lockdowns and curfews and even travel restrictions particularly from South American, where the Brazilian strain is taking its toll.

 

[UsaForexsignal]

Forex Market News - Dollar hovers near one-month low amid subdued U.S. debt yields

The dollar was pinned near a one-month low to major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields hovering near rock bottom in five weeks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve System reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was likely to be temporary.

The safe-haven greenback was also held down by improved risk sentiment amid a rally in global stocks to record highs.

Bitcoin nursed losses from Sunday, when it plunged by the maximum amount as 14% to $51,541. It last traded around $57,020.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six rivals, was at 91.623, shortly from the low of 91.484 marked last week, A level not seen since March 18.

The greenback bought 108.655 yen, near rock bottom since March 24.

The euro changed hands at $1.1958, near the very best since March 4.

"The fixed-income market will dominate my world in the week ," with the danger currently skewed to further U.S. yield declines, pressuring the dollar, Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a far off exchange broker based in Melbourne, wrote during a client note.

Wall Street's gains amid low volatility "should keep USD rallies contained and attract further USD sellers," he wrote.

Benchmark 10-year yields could fall to as low as 1.47%, from around 1.57% currently, consistent with Weston.

Key technical points are 91.30, the March 18 low, for the dollar index, and $1.2000 for the euro, which could trigger a run to $1.22, he said.

The 10-year Treasury yield sank to as low as 1.5280% last week, from a more-than-one-year high of 1.7760% at the top of last month, reducing the dollar's appeal.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Friday, extending a rally in global stocks. MSCI's broadest gauge of world stocks persisted Monday near Friday's all-time peak.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on CNBC on Friday that the U.S. economy "is able to rip" as vaccinations continue and activity picks up, but an increase in inflation is probably going to be transitory, echoing comments from other Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell over the past week.

Dollar net short positioning fell within the latest week to rock bottom level since June 2018, consistent with calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, Masafumi Yamamoto, sees the present quarter as a period of consolidation in U.S. yields and therefore the dollar, with the benchmark Treasury yield potentially dropping below 1.5% and therefore the dollar weakening below 108 yen.

The outline of President Joe Biden's infrastructure spending plan has already been priced in, and there'll be limited progress in negotiations within the near term, Yamamoto said.

But the uptrend in U.S. yields and therefore the dollar will resume within the third quarter, when Congress is probably going to approve the plan, the U.S. vaccine rollout are going to be far along and market speculation a few tapering of Fed stimulus are going to be mounting, he said.

Bitcoin on Monday remained well below the record high of $64,895.22 reached on April 14 following its weekend plunge.

Data website CoinMarketCap cited a blackout in China's Xinjiang region, which reportedly powers tons of bitcoin mining, for Sunday's selloff.

Analysts at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) cited "speculation in several online reports" that the U.S. Treasury may restrict on money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp move lower.

The bitcoin rout also followed a choice on Friday by Turkey's central bank to ban the utilization of cryptocurrencies for purchases.

Despite recent weakness, the world's hottest cryptocurrency remains up 97% in 2021, after quite quadrupling last year.

Mizuho's Yamamoto also pointed to regulatory concerns because the likely trigger for the weekend selloff, but doesn't expect those jitters to scupper the rally long run .

"I would say the larger trend for bitcoin has been the increased use by big financial institutions and corporate like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)," he said. "I think a replacement record high is reachable within the coming weeks."

 

[TradeForexcopier]

Forex Market News - EUR/USD loses some ground, retreats from tops near 1.2050


EUR/USD clinched new 7-week highs near 1.2050.
The dollar sell-off bolsters the upside within the pair thus far .
Investors’ attention seen shifting to the ECB event (Thursday).

The euro cannot have a far better start of the week. Indeed, the only currency saw its buying interest exacerbated on Monday and pushed EUR/USD further north of the psychological 1.2000 yardstick, clinching at an equivalent time new multi-week highs.
EUR/USD meets resistance near 1.2050

EUR/USD ads to Friday’s gains and eventually leaves behind the 1.2000 barrier on Monday. The strong advance, however, has thus far met initial resistance within the mid-1.2000s, where sits the 100-day SMA.

The initial pessimism round the dollar dragged the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh lows within the proximity of the 91.00 mark, albeit managing to regain some composure soon afterwards.

The moderate retracement within the buck reflected the initial apathetic trade in US yields, with the 10-year benchmark navigating the 1.55% area before staging a Bull Run to the 1.615 region.

Nothing scheduled within the US docket on Monday, while the present Account surplus within the euro area widened to €13.3 billion in February.

Moving forward, investors are likely to stay cautious before the ECB event on Thursday, while FOMC members entered into the standard communication blackout period before the Federal Reserve System gathering on April 28.
What to seem for around EUR

EUR/USD met initial resistance within the 1.2050 zone thus far. The recent move higher within the pair has been sustained by the renewed offered bias within the dollar alongside the investors’ shift to the expansion prospect in Europe now that the vaccine campaign appears to possess gained some serious pace. Additionally, solid results from key fundamentals and therefore the improvement within the sentiment within the euro area as lately also appear to bolster the momentum surrounding the only currency.

Key events within the euro area this week: ECB rate of interest decision, President Lagarde’s news conference, European Commission advanced Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – Flash April PMIs (Friday), ECB Lagarde speech.

Eminent issues on the rear boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery within the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence round the EU Recovery Fund.

 

[UsaForexsignal]

Forex Market News - Dollar struggles to recover after slump to 7-week trough amid lower U.S. yields

The dollar languished on Wednesday, hovering just above a seven-week low with subdued U.S. bond yields reducing the currency's yield appeal.

The safe-haven greenback got some respite from a pullback in world stocks from record highs as flare ups in corona virus infections from India to Canada soured the outlook for a fast global recovery.

The safety bid also bolstered the yen, which climbed to a fresh seven-week peak of 107.88 per dollar on Wednesday.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, was at 91.254 in Asia after slumping as low as 90.856 on Tuesday for the primary time since March 3. it's declined 2.1% thus far this month.

The index "has weakened through a key short-term price at 91.30 and may see further downside to the low 90s," with the euro rising to around $1.22, Westpac strategists wrote during a client note.

"We were trying to find the (index) to top in Q3, when second derivative U.S. rebound measures crest and Europe gets her vat act together, but the first indications are that vaccinations across Europe are learning pace already," Westpac said.

The single currency traded at $1.20275, after touching a seven-week high of $1.2079 overnight.

The European central bank decides policy on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Japan following next week.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 1.56%, shortly from its lowest since mid-March, because it continued to consolidate following its retreat from the 14-month high at 1.7760% reached at the top of last month.

"Now that U.S. Treasury yields have started coming off, people are unwinding yen short positions," said Tohru Sasaki, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s head of Japan marketing research .

The yen could strengthen to 105 per dollar within the near term, he said. Japan's currency was as weak as 110.97 for the primary time during a year at the top of last month.

Declines in U.S. yields and therefore the dollar in April have come as evidence mounted that the Fed would be slower in tightening monetary policy than it had seemed to the market, analysts said.

Some encouragement for the euro came from the announcement that the European Union has secured a further 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by BioNTech and Pfizer (NYSEFE).

Elsewhere though, pandemic developments triggered investor caution.

India reported 1,761 deaths from COVID-19, its highest daily toll, while Canada and therefore the us extended a land-border closure for non-essential travelers.

Asian equities tracked declines on Wall Street, where travel stocks weighed on sentiment.

Oil fell; dragging commodity-linked currencies lower overnight.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.26110 to the greenback in Asia, following its biggest plunge in nearly two months on Tuesday. The Bank of Canada is thanks to announce a policy decision later Wednesday.

The Australian dollar, a barometer for risk appetite, weakened 0.2% to $0.77057 after sliding 0.4% overnight.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin traded around $55,500, consolidating following its dip to as low as $51,541.16 on Sunday. It set a record high at $64,895.22 on April 14.