Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Markets on edge – GBPUSD on the verge of a breakout

A decline in US economic indicators may become a trigger for GBPUSD growth towards 1.3250. Discover more in our analysis for 26 November 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 220 thousand, projected at 226 thousand
• Core PCE price index: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.7%
• GBPUSD forecast for 26 November 2025: 1.3250

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for 26 November 2025 is favourable for the pound, with the pair having a good chance to partially regain its positions.

US initial jobless claims show how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator reflects the state of the labour market, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index resumes growth

The JP 225 stock index has bounced off the support level within an uptrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan's inflation rose 3.00% year-on-year in October 2025
• Market impact: moderately negative for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index showed an annual increase of 3.0%, in line with the forecast and slightly above the previous 2.9%. For the market, this indicates that inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target but is not accelerating more than expected. In other words, the economy is no longer stuck in chronic deflation, but we also see no signs of runaway inflation that would force the regulator to sharply tighten policy.

For the JP 225 index, the impact is mixed as it includes many export-oriented companies, for which the key factors are the yen’s exchange rate and borrowing costs. If the market decides that with this level of inflation, the Bank of Japan may afford to slightly raise rates or further loosen its yield-curve control, this could strengthen the yen.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Falling inflation in Germany breaks EURUSD forecasts

The euro, attempting to regain lost ground, has slowed its upward momentum, with the EURUSD pair trading near 1.1580. Find out more in our analysis for 28 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 0.3%, projected at -0.2%
• Markets await the Fed’s interest rate decision
• EURUSD forecast for 28 November 2025: 1.1540

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro, after attempting to regain lost ground, is forming a correction, with the pair trading near 1.1580.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and the degree of economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading will have a negative impact on the European currency.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD hits a four-week low after strong GDP

The USDCAD pair dipped to 1.3980 as the market fully priced in strong Canadian data. Discover more in our analysis for 1 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDCAD pair fell to a four-week low after Canada’s GDP release
• Current trend: the Canadian dollar appears strong thanks to active oil exports
• USDCAD forecast for 1 December 2025: 1.3937

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate fell to a four-week low after stronger-than-expected quarterly GDP data. These figures reduced expectations of additional easing from the Bank of Canada. Over the past week, the CAD gained about 0.9%, marking its best performance since May.

The recent weakening of the US dollar also supports demand for the CAD, as markets are betting on a Fed rate cut in December.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth but correction risk remains high

US 500 has shifted into an uptrend, but the likelihood of a slight pullback remains high. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US manufacturing PMI for November came in at 52.2
• Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI in the latest release came in at 52.2 points versus a forecast of 51.9 and the previous reading of 52.5. This means the manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory (readings above 50.0 indicate growth), but the pace of expansion slowed slightly compared to the previous month. At the same time, the higher-than-expected reading suggests that business conditions are somewhat better than the market anticipated.

For the US 500, the impact is cautiously positive. Since the index includes industrial, technology, and consumer companies, a moderately strong PMI supports the soft landing narrative: the economy continues to grow, but without excessive acceleration that could force the Fed back into tightening. Within the index, stocks of real-sector companies sensitive to manufacturing activity may perform slightly better under such conditions.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

The market holds its breath: one report can change the fate of USDJPY

Positive US fundamental data may trigger a rally in USDJPY towards 157.50. Discover more in our analysis for 3 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI in Japan: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.2
• US services PMI: previously at 54.8, currently at 55.0
• ADP US nonfarm employment change: previously at 42 thousand, currently at 7 thousand
• USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2025: 154.85 and 157.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 3 December 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading near 155.80.

Japan’s services PMI covers multiple industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technologies, hospitality, and food services.

The USDJPY forecast for today appears moderately optimistic for the Japanese yen, with the PMI up to 53.2 from 53.1 previously. At the moment, the PMI is above the 50.0 threshold, which may add support to the yen.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent prices stuck in a sideways range

Brent quotes show moderate growth, rising to the 63.00 USD area despite an increase in US crude oil inventories according to EIA data. Discover more in our analysis for 4 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US crude oil inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels last week
• Current trend: moving within a sideways range
• Brent forecast for 4 December 2025: 65.00 or 61.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices climbed to 63.00 USD per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. The move was supported by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and stalled peace negotiations, which reduced expectations of a recovery in Russian supply.

The US has also increased threats against Venezuela’s oil sector, adding to the geopolitical risk premium. However, crude prices remain capped by weak demand and potential oversupply. This is confirmed by EIA data showing a 0.57 million barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, along with rising gasoline and distillate stocks.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold enters a new rally phase, XAUUSD may soar towards 4,300 USD

With markets awaiting US economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, XAUUSD may test the 4,300 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 5 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core PCE price index: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.9%
• Markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025: 4,300

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is undergoing a correction, with prices currently trading near 4,210 USD per ounce. The core PCE price index is a key inflation gauge in the US, tracking changes in prices for goods and services excluding food and energy. It reflects underlying inflation trends and serves as the primary benchmark for monetary policy decisions. The core PCE helps measure real consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability, as it is less affected by short-term volatility.

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025 assumes that the index may remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, it should be noted that this is only a forecast value, and the situation will become clear only after the actual data is published. A weaker-than-expected result would negatively impact the US dollar and trigger XAUUSD growth.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index continues to rise, with conditions for a new all-time high in place

The DE 40 stock index has formed a strong uptrend, which may enter a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s factory orders grew by 1.5% m/m
• Market impact: this data creates a mixed background for German equities

Fundamental analysis

Factory orders in Germany increased by 1.5% m/m, far exceeding expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from the previous 2.0%. For the market, this is a signal that the industrial sector remains active: companies continue to receive new orders, meaning future revenue and capacity utilisation. The result is significantly better than forecast, so it is a positive surprise for the stock market, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous month.

For the DE 40 index, such data is a supportive factor. Strong orders typically push index futures higher and create a favourable backdrop for growth on the day of the release, especially if external news from the US or China does not interfere. Within the index, movement will likely be uneven: the strongest contribution to growth may come from major industrial and export-oriented companies – the core of the German economy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: the index is once again heading towards a new all-time high

The US 500 may enter a correction, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US core PCE came in at 2.8% year-on-year
• Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The published core PCE figure came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.9% and the previous reading of 2.9%. For the market, this is an important signal, as the core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge. The decline shows that inflationary pressure continues to ease, reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance and increasing the likelihood of a more dovish rate path in the coming months.

For the US 500, such data is a moderately positive factor. The market reaction is likely to tilt upwards, as expectations of further easing in inflation reduce uncertainty around the Fed’s decisions. However, the rise is unlikely to be sharp: the figure declined by only 0.1 percentage point, and inflation is already close to the range the Fed considers sustainable.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

GBPUSD holds above 1.3300 ahead of the Fed decision

The GBPUSD pair has stabilised above 1.3300 ahead of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision. Discover more in our analysis for 10 December 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the market expects the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points today
• Current trend: moderate upward momentum
• GBPUSD forecast for 10 December 2025: 1.3400 and 1.3250

Fundamental analysis

Today, market participants expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut. Investors will also focus on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may take a cautious stance regarding further policy easing amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Expectations for next week’s Bank of England rate decision remain largely unchanged, with the likelihood of a rate cut around 84%, despite signs of accelerating wage growth in the UK.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the index continues to rise

The JP 225 equity index trades within a narrow corridor between resistance and support. The forecast for JP 225 today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.60% quarter-on-quarter
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s GDP decreased by -0.6% quarter-on-quarter, which came in weaker than forecasts and significantly below the previous expansion. The result shows a clear slowdown in economic activity: consumer spending, investment and exports all weakened. This increases investors’ concerns about the pace of economic recovery and the resilience of corporate profits. For Japan’s equity market, such numbers act as a restraining factor. Market participants usually treat a weak GDP print as a signal of elevated risks for companies.

JP 225 faces short-term pressure due to concerns about economic momentum. However, further dynamics depend on the stance of the Bank of Japan. If the regulator signals a readiness to support the economy, this could limit the index’s decline and soften the negative effect.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team