Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD poised to surge: Aussie challenges the dollar amid Fed turmoil

With the USD weakening, the AUDUSD pair may continue its upward trajectory towards 0.6580. Discover more in our analysis for 29 August 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUD continues to strengthen against the USD
• The Australian PMI and retail sales support the Aussie
• AUDUSD forecast for 29 August 2025: 0.6580

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favors the Australian dollar, which continues to recover against the USD, with the pair currently trading near 0.6530. The weakness in the USD is driven by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and political risks surrounding the US central bank. This has created a favorable backdrop for the Aussie’s growth and boosted the chances of a continued uptrend.

Australian macroeconomic data also keeps the AUD supported. Inflation accelerated to 2.8% in July, lowering the likelihood of an RBA rate cut. Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar strengthened before entering a correction. The AUDUSD outlook also considers the positive impact of PMI and retail sales data, which sustain domestic optimism and reinforce AUD’s gains against the USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index enters a downtrend within the correction phase

The growth momentum of the DE 40 index has slowed. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s unemployment rate for July 2025 stood at 6.3%
• Market impact: this supports consumer stocks

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s unemployment rate for August 2025 came in at 6.3%, in line with both forecasts and the previous reading. The stability of the indicator confirms that the German labour market remains resilient despite internal and external economic challenges. For the German stock market, this stability is highly significant. A steady unemployment rate points to sustained household demand, which underpins domestic consumption.

For the DE 40, the impact of this figure varies by sector. The financial sector reacts positively to labour market stability as it reduces credit risks. Industrial companies and exporters benefit indirectly since steady domestic demand can offset fluctuations in external markets. The consumer sector also stands to gain as stable employment supports household solvency and drives demand for goods and services.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: after rebounding from support, the index aims to renew its all-time high

The US 500 once again hit a new all-time high within the ongoing uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: The US core PCE price index came in at 2.9% in July
• Market impact: for the US stock market, this has a mixed effect in the medium term

Fundamental analysis

The latest figures for the core PCE price index in the US show a yearly increase of 2.9%, in line with forecasts and slightly above the previous 2.8%. This index excludes food and energy components and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge when assessing inflation risks and shaping monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the cash allocation of US mutual funds has dropped to a record low of 1.4%, below the 1.5% level seen before the 2022 bear market. After a short-lived rise in April, fund cash positions resumed their more than three-year downtrend. For context, between 2008 and 2020, the average cash share was roughly twice as high. With funds almost fully invested and lacking significant reserves to buy on potential pullbacks, the market remains vulnerable if sudden volatility spikes occur.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rally: yen avoids risk

The USDJPY pair surged to 148.80, with political imbalance weighing on the yen outlook. Find out more in our analysis for 3 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is rising rapidly
• The market is monitoring political issues and pricing in these risks
• USDJPY forecast for 3 September 2025: 148.90

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate climbed to 148.80 midweek. The yen reached a one-month low amid political uncertainty in Japan.

Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary of the ruling party and close ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation. This fueled speculation about Ishiba’s potential departure, with pressure mounting after his election defeat. Among possible successors is Sanae Takaichi, known for her support of low interest rates.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasised on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise rates gradually but noted the persistence of elevated global risks. This signals no urgency in tightening policy.

Investors now await fresh wage data, which should provide additional signals on the future course of monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the uptrend has shifted to a short-term downtrend

The JP 225 index continues its correction within a downtrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan Tokyo CPI for August rose by 2.5% year-on-year
• Market impact: this result is positive for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August 2025, in line with forecasts but lower than the previous reading of 2.9%. For the Japanese equity market, this result matters. Easing inflation signals reduced pressure on consumers and businesses, which may act as a positive factor for domestic demand. However, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target (around 2.0%), supporting arguments for a cautious review of monetary policy.

For the JP 225, the sectoral impact is mixed. The consumer sector (retail, restaurants, and everyday goods) benefits from lower inflationary pressure, which supports purchasing power. Export-oriented companies may also gain if expectations of a softer Bank of Japan stance put downward pressure on the yen, improving competitiveness abroad. Conversely, the financial sector may face limits, as slower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive interest rate hikes, restraining bank margins.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its rally: Fed rate outlook provides support

Gold (XAUUSD) prices stand at 3,550 USD by the end of the week. Pressure on the Fed is opening new opportunities for the precious metal. Find more details in our analysis for 5 September 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to climb, hitting new record highs
• Expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts provide strong support for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 3,564 and 3,578

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 3,550 USD per ounce on Friday and remains near record highs, showing a weekly gain of over 3%. Support for the metal comes from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Weakness in the labour market – falling job vacancies, rising layoffs, and an increase in initial jobless claims to a two-month high – has strengthened expectations of Fed easing. The market is now pricing in not only a September rate cut but also up to three moves by the end of the year. This is favourable for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 forecast: the index enters a downtrend within the correction phase

The growth momentum of the DE 40 index has slowed. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s factory orders for July 2025 fell by 2.9%
• Market impact: this signals potential difficulties in industry and mechanical engineering for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s factory orders for August 2025 showed a sharp decline, with the actual reading at -2.9% versus the forecast of +0.5% and the previous level of -0.2%. This result indicates a significant drop in industrial demand, reflecting weaker domestic and external activity in the country’s key economic sector. For the German equity market, this signals potential challenges for industry and mechanical engineering, which traditionally form the backbone of the economy.

Negative orders dynamics lower expectations for future output and exports, reducing the investment appeal of companies linked to heavy industry, machinery, and component supply. For the DE 40 index, the overall impact is assessed as negative. The decline in orders undermines expectations for steady corporate earnings growth and may reinforce investor caution.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500 forecast: prices attempt to break above resistance and set a new all-time high

The US 500 continues to rise but has not yet managed to overcome the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls for August came in at 22 thousand
• Market impact: for the US equity market, this has a rather positive effect in the medium term

Fundamental analysis

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August 2025 showed 22 thousand new jobs, well below the forecast of 75 thousand and significantly weaker than the previous 79 thousand. This result signals a slowdown in labour market dynamics, which has multiple implications for the US stock market.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such a weak reading indicates declining demand from employers and potential cooling of the economy. For the US 500, this can act as a double-edged factor. On the one hand, weakness in employment may increase concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. On the other hand, a softer labour market could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a looser monetary policy than previously anticipated.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, but resistance has not yet been broken

After reaching a new all-time high, the trend in the US 30 index remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US PMI for August came in at 55.5
• Market impact: for US equities, this result signals a cautious investor sentiment

Fundamental analysis

The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in line with market forecasts but above 4.2% in July. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates a gradual cooling of the labour market: a moderate rise in unemployment eases wage pressure and reduces service-sector inflation. In terms of financial conditions, this is generally favourable, as expectations of a softer monetary policy path increase, Treasury yields tend to decline, and funding costs for companies decrease. At the same time, the fact that unemployment is rising points to a slower pace of economic growth.

For the US 30, the signal is mixed. If markets interpret the figure as evidence of a soft landing, we may see a short-term improvement in risk appetite driven by lower yields and stronger expectations of Fed easing. However, if focus shifts to risks for growth momentum, the index could show a more restrained performance given its heavy weighting in cyclical sectors.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 forecast: the uptrend has returned, with a new all-time high expected

The JP 225 index has resumed growth within its upward channel. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s quarterly GDP for August grew by 0.5% year-on-year
• Market impact: this result is positive for the Japanese equity market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s Q2 GDP showed growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, above the forecast of 0.3% and the previous reading of 0.1%. This result signals that the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovery after a slowdown, which can boost investor confidence and support equities.

For the JP 225 index, this data is a broadly positive factor. GDP growth indicates stronger domestic demand and more resilient production and export dynamics, directly supporting revenues of Japan’s largest corporations included in the index. The financial sector benefits from rising economic activity, as it increases demand for loans and investment services. Industrial and export-oriented companies also gain support from higher global and domestic demand for Japanese goods.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD at a ten-month peak: growth may continue

The AUDUSD pair is consolidating around 0.6660 on Friday. The Australian dollar has every chance to close the week with its best result since April. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Australian dollar benefits from the weakening of the US dollar
• Inflation risks in Australia support the RBA’s cautious stance on rates
• AUDUSD forecast for 12 September 2025: 0.6669

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate has slightly declined, hovering near 0.6660, close to its highest level since early November 2024. The pair is on track to show its best week since April. Support for the AUD has come from improved risk appetite and expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut in the US.

US statistics showed stable inflation in August, while a rise in jobless claims confirmed weakness in the labour market. High metal prices, particularly for gold and silver, provided additional support for the Australian currency.

Domestic news in Australia showed that consumer inflation expectations rose in September after a decline in the previous month. This signals more resilient demand and renewed inflationary risks. RBA Governor Michele Bullock pointed to signs of somewhat stronger growth in the private sector, calling it a positive for the economy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team