Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

Vlad RF · Apr 22, 2024

EUR is rising moderately. Overview for 22.04.2024

The primary currency pair maintains its upward trajectory on Monday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0663.

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve have led investors to reconsider global interest rate cut timelines. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is believed to start reducing the interest rate in the mid-year.

ECB member Madis Muller stated on Friday that the regulator may cut interest rates several times by the end of the year after the initial move in June if inflation is in line with expectations. ECB president Christine Lagarde hinted at the same last week without providing indications of specific timelines.

ECB official Robert Holzmann stated earlier that the ECB will likely need more time to be prepared to cut rates as aggressively as planned.

As usual, opinions differ, but this diversity of viewpoints proves positive: the market is concerned about prospects and, therefore, carefully analyses the developments.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Apr 23, 2024

JPY is falling again. Overview for 23.04.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, paused in the morning but has since resumed its decline. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 154.78.

Today, the USDJPY pair reached a new 34-year high of 154.80, prompting further commentary from Japanese policymakers within the framework of verbal interventions. Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, referred to last week's meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea, saying that this trilateral meeting laid the groundwork for addressing the yen's high volatility issue. Suzuki's statement today became the strongest warning to the market.

The Bank of Japan's next meeting will be held this week, but no miracles are expected from it. The quarterly forecast on the economy and prices will be of interest. In this release, the CB should show how the yen's devaluation has influenced the economic system.

Last week, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the regulator might raise interest rates again if the yen's weakness induces sustainable growth due to higher import costs.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Apr 24, 2024

AUD is confident. Overview for 24.04.2024

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, looks promising mid-week. The current AUDUSD exchange rate is 0.6515, marking the highest level in almost two weeks.

Investors are reacting to fresh statistics on Australian inflation and believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not lower interest rates for now.

Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% q/q in Q1. The figure exceeded the forecasted 3.4% level but continued to slow down for the fifth consecutive quarter. Data from earlier this week revealed the private sector's most impressive expansion in two years. Manufacturing activity in Australia approached the break-even point, while service sector activity reached its highest in three months. All this confirms that the Australian economy is stable and sturdy.

The prospect of the RBA keeping the interest rate unchanged logically supports the Aussie.

Additional support comes from the local weakness of the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Apr 25, 2024

EUR has paused. Overview for 25.04.2024

The main currency pair paused its ascent on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0705.

Nothing significant happened; the market remains highly sensitive to even the slightest changes in global sentiment.

Today, the US will release the GDP statistics for Q1 2024. The economy is expected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous 3.4%. A local slowdown in economic growth at the beginning of the year may be a normal response to some dip in activity. However, the GDP is forecasted to gain dynamics later on.

The market believes the US dollar is emerging as the most effective currency this year. Simultaneously, the fundamental performance of the US economic system compared to other countries suggests that USD could continue rising against other currencies.

The US dollar is supported by rising US government spending and high demand for the safe-haven asset. Moreover, the deflationary effect of China's economic decline buoys the USD.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Apr 26, 2024

EUR is rising smoothly. Overview for 26.04.2024

The primary currency pair demonstrates a modest increase on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0722.

The market is uncertain whether the US Federal Reserve has all the necessary arguments to lower the interest rate in the near future. Yesterday's weak US GDP release for Q1 2024 could have been a reason to soften the monetary policy if the Fed were prepared to act.

The US economy increased by only 1.6% in January-March, contrary to the expected rise of 2.5%. In Q4 last year, the GDP demonstrated a 3.4% increase.

Meanwhile, consumer demand remains high. This factor limits the Fed's actions, compelling it to await a more opportune moment to lower the rate.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is packed with statistics. The focus is on the March Core PCE inflationary component and reports on Americans' income and spending for the previous month.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Monday at 6:21 AM

AUD continues to rise. Overview for 29.04.2024

The Australian dollar appears strong against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6567.

The Aussie surpassed a three-week high against its American counterpart as the USD slightly corrected its position ahead of this week's meeting. It is worth noting that the Aussie has surged to its 11-year high against the JPY. The anticipated currency interventions from the Bank of Japan still do not deter anyone.

Previous inflation statistics in Australia reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not embark on monetary policy easing anytime soon. The consumer price index in Q1 declined to 3.6% from the previous 4.1%. However, it remained above the forecasted 3.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of easing inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, the monthly index accelerated in March, reaching 3.5% from 3.4% in February.

This week, Australia will publish retail sales and trade statistics, providing further insights into the state of the economy.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Thursday at 6:09 AM

JPY remains highly volatile. Overview for 02.05.2024

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, declines again. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 155.82.

The market speculates about the reason behind the yen’s strong movements this week. Although the Japanese authorities have not officially confirmed interventions to support the national currency, investors are convinced that there were financial injections, and twice.

One of Japan’s monetary policymakers Masato Kanda stated that the government would disclose data on possible interventions at the end of next month.

Financial injections are likely to have driven the yen’s short-term rally. Such interventions will not produce a significant effect as the main reason for JPY’s weakness is the difference between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Nothing has changed on this issue.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section Forex Forecasts and Analysis on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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