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Why is the market unpredictable?

Crosta

New Member
After all, all price fluctuations or market behavior are functions of traders' beliefs about the future. In other words, all price fluctuations are a function of traders' beliefs about what prices are too high and what prices are too low.

The basic driving force of market behavior is quite simple. There are only three main forces in any market, namely traders who think the price is underestimated, traders who think the price is overestimated, and traders who pay attention to observation and are prepared to decide whether the price is high or low.

In fact, the third type of people is a potential force, and things that support traders' beliefs about high and low prices are usually not important, because most people trade in a random manner without discipline and organization, and people are always fickle.

At any time, by observing the relative prices of the current market and the previous market, we can see which party has stronger beliefs. If there is a recognizable pattern, this pattern may be repeated, but the appearance of this pattern does not mean that the future market trend will be the same as history. This means that history will not be simply repeated, but it is always amazing. resemblance.

Because there are many things we don't know, and unless we learn to interpret the psychology of all traders, we will never know how the future market will go.

For example, do we know how many traders may be on the sidelines and prepare to enter the market? Do we know how many people on the sidelines want to buy how much, how many people want to sell how much, and whether the participation of traders has been reflected in In the current market, how many traders will change at any time and thus reverse operations. If they do, how long will they stay off the court? If they re-enter the venue, they will be optimistic about which direction.

These unknown hidden variables continue to appear and never stop, always playing a role in every market forexrebateking.com. The smartest trader will not pretend that these unknown variables do not exist, will not avoid these variables, nor will they use market analysis to give meaning and rationalization to these variables. On the contrary, the smartest traders will consider these variables and will It is incorporated into every link in the trading system.

The trading method of ordinary traders is just the opposite. They will trade according to what they can't see, hear, or feel, and the point of view that they definitely don't exist.

If the trader really believes that all hidden variables exist and may affect the price at any time, then the trader should and must believe that the outcome of each transaction is uncertain. Many value investors predict the long-term future market trend based on various market information, but it is difficult to predict price fluctuations in the short term because they cannot analyze the hidden variable of other traders' psychological changes.
 
There are many traders in the Forex market but not all traders can trade profitably. The forex market may change its shape after a while. That is why every trader has to work with his proper management.
 

bogdaiki

New Member
The markets are steered by big institutions with big $. They set up traps and that's why an indicator or systems works sometimes and other times doesn't. We need to learn how to recognize the fake breakouts and also take some chances, with stop losses and take profit targets.
 

equalizer

New Member
that's really a great interpretation of how things are going right there ... can't see why 99% lose if these infos are free
 

Zygosis

New Member
The forex market is unpredictable for those who don't know how it works. Basic education and understanding of Forex trading will help to make proper predictions. Also, it is important to be aware of your emotions while trading to avoid losing more than you gain.
 

Supercilious

New Member
The unknown hidden variables you are talking about also include things happening all over the world. Various news articles come up every minute related to various sectors of the market. Nobody is able to know people’s reaction to a news story before it is released. Once released people sometimes act very differently than expected.
 

mlawson71

Well-Known Member
I believe fundamental analysis takes these things into account, which makes it so difficult and complicated to conduct without extensive training.
 

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