Forex News Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Bitcoin Breakout or Pullback? Critical Levels in Focus

Bitcoin (BTC/USD), often referred to as "Crypto Gold," is the leading cryptocurrency that represents a decentralized digital asset and a store of value. As the price fluctuates, Bitcoin remains a key focus for both investors and traders, influencing the broader crypto market. In the current market, Bitcoin is showing a new wave of bullish movement despite short-term bearish corrections. The price has been hovering above the Ichimoku Cloud since the new all-time high (ATH) on July 14th, maintaining momentum above the support at 116,000. While the market shows short-term indecision, Bitcoin's overall trend remains bullish, especially with the recent price action showing bullish signals. Today, various economic releases such as the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin and the National Association of Realtors' home resale data will influence the USD, possibly providing volatility for the BTC-USD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The Bitcoin chart reveals a continuation of upward pressure, with recent price action suggesting a consolidation within an orange channel, indicating a short-term correction. The lower boundary of this channel near 116,000 is acting as strong support, and the upper boundary is now facing a potential resistance level. The Ichimoku Cloud continues to show bullish signals, with the candles moving above the cloud, although a potential resistance at 120,500 may pose a challenge. The CRSI (Connors RSI) indicator is at a high value of 78.48, suggesting that Bitcoin is in overbought territory, which could lead to a pullback before further movement upwards. The bullish long-term trend line remains intact, but caution should be observed in the short term due to the resistance levels ahead.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Eustance Isbor]

Excellent analysis on EUR/GBP! Your combination of fundamental drivers and technical indicators provides clear market insights. The Bollinger Band squeeze and MACD crossover strongly support the current bearish momentum. While the low-impact Eurozone data may limit volatility, Nagel's speech could offer unexpected catalysts. Would be valuable to see how price reacts at the lower band support. Looking forward to your next update - always appreciate Capitalcore's thorough market breakdowns.

 

[Capitalcore]

GBPUSD technical analysis with Ichimoku and MACD

The GBP/USD currency pair - commonly referred to by traders as “Cable”- is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market, representing the British pound against the US dollar. As a key barometer of transatlantic economic health, this pair is heavily influenced by both macroeconomic releases and geopolitical developments. Today’s focus is on the Confederation of British Industry's distributive trades survey and a major geopolitical shift between the US and EU.
Fundamentally, the GBP USD pair faces mixed momentum. The UK's CBI Distributive Trades Survey will be closely watched today, offering insights into consumer spending and retail activity. If the actual result exceeds expectations, it could offer short-term support for the pound. However, overriding this is a major geopolitical development: the US and EU have reached a deal to impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports, successfully avoiding a full-scale trade war. This agreement includes a massive $600 billion EU investment in the US, greater EU energy and defense purchases, and sustained high tariffs on US steel and aluminum. While this strengthens USD sentiment due to favorable US terms, it could pressure the pound amid uncertainty over how this deal may affect UK-EU-US trade relationships. Overall, the fundamental outlook for GBP/USD leans bearish, with downside risk persisting unless UK retail data strongly outperforms.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the GBP/USD H4 chart shows a clear bearish structure, confirmed by price action and indicators. The Cable price is currently moving between the 1.0 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, hovering just above a critical support zone around 1.34000, which aligns with the lower boundary of a descending triangle pattern. This level has acted as strong support multiple times historically and remains crucial. The GBP-USD price broke below the Ichimoku Cloud last week, with the green cloud thinning and showing a flat bottom, typically signaling weak bullish momentum and increased risk of further decline. The orange bearish trendline continues to cap upward moves, with 9 of the last 10 candles being bearish, showing consistent selling pressure. Indicators confirm this trend: the %R is deeply oversold at -91.34, and the MACD is bearish, with widening histogram bars and a fresh cross below the signal line. Resistance stands at 0.786 retracement (around 1.34717). A confirmed break below 1.34000 could open the path toward the 1.33390 area, while any bullish bounce will likely be limited by strong resistance zones.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD H4 Chart Insights MACD Indicates Bearish

EUR/USD, commonly known as the "Fiber," is the most actively traded currency pair globally, reflecting the economic health between the Eurozone and the United States. Today, significant attention is directed toward the Flash GDP release from the Eurozone, which measures the quarterly economic growth and strongly influences the EUR, as an actual figure above the forecast usually strengthens the currency. Conversely, the USD awaits impactful data including the Goods Trade Balance and the JOLTS Job Openings report, essential indicators that affect export demand and employment market confidence, respectively, thus influencing dollar sentiment and price action.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically analyzing the EUR/USD H4 chart, after undergoing a bullish trend, recent candlesticks have convincingly breached the former support line, initiating a sharp bearish momentum. Prices have currently approached a critical support zone, an area repeatedly tested previously and coinciding with a prior resistance trend line, hinting at potential bullish corrective price action in the near term. The Bollinger Bands have significantly widened, indicating high volatility that may contract soon, implying stabilization or corrective moves might follow shortly. The RSI indicator stands near oversold territory at 30, reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish reversal or correction. Additionally, the MACD histogram remains deeply negative at -0.00214 with the MACD line below the signal line at -0.00238 compared to -0.00024, underscoring prevailing bearish sentiment yet also indicating potential exhaustion and possible reversal.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USD/CAD Eyes Resistance Amid Mixed Fundamentals

USD/CAD, the currency pair representing the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar, remains heavily influenced by economic indicators and central bank guidance from both nations. Currently, market focus is split between US labor and inflation data and Canada’s resource-driven fundamentals. From the US side, key updates include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the advance GDP release, both offering early insight into employment trends and overall economic health. Meanwhile, attention also centers on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and accompanying FOMC statement and press conference, where even subtle shifts in tone can drive volatility. In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance, as communicated through its rate statement and governor's press conference, is equally impactful. With the loonie’s sensitivity to energy prices, crude oil inventory data from both the API and EIA adds another layer of influence. Lower-than-expected inventories can boost oil prices, often lending support to CAD. As traders digest these mixed signals—stronger US growth versus commodity and rate-driven Canadian dynamics—USD/CAD is poised for responsive moves ahead of the next central bank updates in September.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD 4-hour chart, the price is currently testing a significant resistance zone between 1.3775 and 1.3797, a level that has acted as a strong barrier during previous attempts in mid-June and early July. Price is approaching this level along a steep ascending trendline, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. However, technical indicators suggest a potential stall. The RSI is at 69.67—just below the overbought threshold—signaling limited upside room and increased likelihood of a pullback. Furthermore, the MACD, while still in positive territory, shows signs of convergence, with the MACD line nearing the signal line, hinting at weakening momentum. These factors combined suggest that a breakout above this resistance may face difficulty without a strong fundamental catalyst. Traders should be cautious and watch for bearish signals near this zone, as a rejection could lead to a short-term correction toward trendline or support levels below 1.3700.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei 225 H4 chart technical breakdown

The Nikkei 225 Index, often referred to as "Nikkei" or "JAP 225," is Japan’s premier stock market index, tracking the performance of 225 large, publicly-owned companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is one of the most watched indices in the Asia-Pacific region and serves as a critical benchmark for the Japanese equity market. From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese yen (JPY) is in focus today with a cluster of key economic indicators pending release, although all are scheduled for later dates in August and beyond. Market participants are pricing in expectations around Japan’s inflation-adjusted industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, and consumer sentiment—all vital indicators of domestic economic health. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a dovish stance and interest rates remaining ultra-low until at least the September 19 meeting, investor sentiment remains cautious. The anticipation of upcoming BOJ communications, especially any hint of tightening or yield curve control adjustments, may increase volatility. Until then, the Nikkei’s trajectory may remain largely influenced by risk appetite and global macro flows.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart of Nikkei 225 reflects that the market has overall kept a bullish momentum and now has entered a correction phase, currently reacting to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around 40755. This area is acting as short-term support. The price is hovering near the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, indicating indecision. The base line (Kijun-sen) is positioned above the price, and the conversion line (Tenkan-sen) is below the last candle, potentially hinting the end of the correction. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 47.90, just below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting weakening momentum but no immediate oversold condition. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows bearish momentum with a reading of -17, and both the MACD line (-67) and Signal line (-49) remain in negative territory. If this correction deepens, the price may target the 0.382 retracement level, but a bullish reversal from the current level could see a retest of 41941 or even approach the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level at 43311.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore