Forex News Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

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EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical and Fundamental Insights

EUR/USD, commonly known as the "Fiber," is among the most traded currency pairs globally, reflecting the economic dynamics between the Eurozone and the United States. The EUR/USD pair is highly sensitive to economic indicators, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events, making it crucial for forex traders to monitor fundamental news closely. Today's significant event includes the speech from US President Donald Trump in Iowa, potentially impacting market sentiment due to his statements on economic policy and future monetary strategies. Moreover, the recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data could also affect the US Dollar (USD) valuation, indirectly influencing EUR/USD dynamics by altering expectations around oil supply and economic growth forecasts.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h
The EUR/USD H4 chart has predominantly shown a bullish trend, characterized by brief bearish movements and periods of consolidation. Recently, the bullish momentum has notably accelerated, indicating increased market volatility. Currently, the EUR/USD pair price action is trading significantly above the Ichimoku cloud (1.19653, 1.18753, 1.20416, 1.16973, 1.16728), signaling strong bullish momentum. However, the RSI (14) at 89.13 suggests an extreme overbought market condition, raising possibilities for a corrective pullback in the near term. Similarly, William’s %R (14) at -12.91 also supports the overbought signal, suggesting traders should be cautious of potential price reversals or temporary consolidations.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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UK100 Index Hovering Midline, Bulls Eye Upper Channel

The UK100, also known as the FTSE 100 Index, represents the top 100 blue-chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange and is commonly referred to as the "Footsie." It serves as a crucial benchmark for assessing the health of the UK stock market. Today, fundamental market movements will be closely influenced by economic indicators, notably the release of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and consumer inflation reports from the Eurozone. Positive figures exceeding forecasts would likely bolster investor confidence, driving bullish sentiments and supporting the UK100 index upwards, while weaker-than-expected data might trigger caution, leading to corrective moves or volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h
Analyzing the UK100 H4 chart, we see a clear bullish price action within a gradually ascending channel, periodically punctuated by corrective phases. Currently, the price hovers near the midline of the channel, suggesting indecision marked by a doji candlestick. Nonetheless, the bullish channel and today's latest bullish candle indicate potential for continuation in the upward trajectory towards the upper boundary of the channel. Technical indicators reinforce this perspective, with the Williams %R at -25.72 suggesting mild bullishness, and the MACD (12,26,9) line at 3.28 crossing above the signal line (32.41), indicating positive bullish momentum.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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XAUUSD H4 technical and fundamental outlook

Gold (XAU/USD)—widely known as the safe-haven metal—is one of the most liquid and influential forex commodity pairs. Its price is strongly driven by global risk sentiment, inflation expectations, and shifts in US monetary policy. Today’s fundamental outlook for XAU/USD is shaped by delayed but highly important USD data, including NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Labor Cost Index, along with speeches from FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Michelle Bowman. These releases and comments may increase volatility, as strong labor data or hawkish guidance would support USD strength and pressure gold, while weaker figures or dovish tones could boost XAU/USD. Crude Oil Inventory updates also affect inflation expectations, adding another layer of influence to gold’s short-term direction.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h
In the XAU/USD H4 technical analysis, the chart shows gold trying to recover from a strong bearish swing, with buyers currently struggling to break the 5036.97 resistance, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci extension. Although sellers still show interest, the broader trend remains historically bullish, and recent candle strength hints at possible continuation upward. The EMA (9) sits at 5022.88, touching price and reflecting indecision. The RSI (14) at 54.53 indicates mild bullish momentum, while the Stochastic (14,1,3) at 59.21 / 62.46 suggests momentum could build if resistance gives way. Overall, consolidation persists, but a breakout remains likely if fundamentals do not sharply favor the USD.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Consolidation Points to Breakout

The US30 index, commonly known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or simply "The Dow," is among the most prominent U.S. equity indices tracking the performance of 30 major publicly traded companies. Today's fundamental analysis for the US30 index revolves around significant scheduled events, notably former President Donald Trump's State of the Union address, which could induce volatility based on policy directives or economic commentary. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, Jeffrey Schmid, and Alberto Musalem, could offer hawkish insights affecting market expectations and investor sentiment. Traders should monitor the weekly Crude Oil Inventories report from the EIA closely, as energy prices significantly impact index-linked company valuations, especially in sectors like energy and manufacturing.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h
The US30 H4 technical chart has displayed indecision, captured clearly within a horizontal channel formation throughout this year, coupled with several failed breakout attempts. Candlesticks currently gravitate towards the channel's lower boundary, signaling potential bearish momentum, particularly given recent robust bearish movements. A decisive breakout below the lower band could mark the onset of a bearish trend. The 9-period Moving Average currently lies below the candles, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment. RSI (14) stands at 46.44, indicating neutral but mildly bearish conditions. MACD (12, 26, 9) values at 15, -124, -139 highlight the dominance of selling pressure in recent sessions, further supporting potential bearish moves.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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