Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.02.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under moderate pressure as traders anticipate remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C. A more hawkish tone from her could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on gold prices, given the inverse correlation between the two. Additionally, upcoming RealClearMarkets/TIPP Consumer Confidence data and Wards Auto Sales figures may provide further insight into the strength of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected consumer or auto data could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, dampening gold’s short-term bullish outlook. Conversely, dovish commentary or weaker data may revive safe-haven demand for gold in the H4 and daily sessions.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, GOLD-USD continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout in either direction. The price recently moved from the upper half of the Bollinger Bands toward the middle band, which is acting as a short-term support zone. The upper Bollinger Band aligns closely with a bearish trendline, forming the upper boundary of the flag-like structure. Meanwhile, the middle Bollinger Band provides support, and the next key support area could be found around the lower band, near the bottom of the triangle. The overall price action remains neutral-to-bullish as long as gold stays above the ascending lower trendline.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price moved from the upper half toward the middle band, which acts as the first support level. The upper band aligns with the bearish trendline, while the lower band near $4,110 is the next support zone.
RSI (14): Currently at 59.55, indicating moderate bullish momentum with room to rise before overbought conditions. A drop below 50 would signal a possible short-term correction.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Values at 32.91 and 39.78 show mild downward momentum, suggesting short-term consolidation. A rebound above 40 could confirm renewed bullish momentum on the H4 chart.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is seen near $4,200–$4,180, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band and the lower side of the recent consolidation range.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies around $4,260–$4,280, matching the upper Bollinger Band and the bearish trendline forming the upper boundary of the triangle.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GOLD/USD H4 chart analysis indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle, reflecting indecision before a potential breakout. The technical indicators, including RSI and Stochastic, show a balance between bullish and bearish forces, suggesting a cautious trading environment. Traders should closely monitor fundamental catalysts—particularly the Federal Reserve testimony—as any hawkish commentary could push gold lower toward the lower Bollinger Band support. Conversely, dovish statements or weak USD data could spark a bullish breakout above $4,280.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.02.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EURUSD traders will closely monitor upcoming economic indicators from the US and Eurozone. In the US, traders await key reports from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve regarding employment change, import prices, capacity utilization, industrial production, and PMI data. Positive outcomes in these indicators typically strengthen the USD. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, market participants are anticipating the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and a crucial testimony from ECB President Christine Lagarde, whose remarks could significantly impact EURUSD volatility.


Price Action:
Analyzing EURUSD price action on the H4 chart reveals an overall bullish trend over the longer period. Recently, candles have adopted a bearish trajectory but have formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. Given this bullish pattern and current momentum, traders can reasonably expect bullish price action continuation towards the key resistance around the 1.18151 level, historically responsive to price action.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the EURUSD candles, very close to price action, suggesting that a potential bullish reversal may occur soon if dots shift beneath the candles, reaffirming upward momentum.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD indicator shows a current reading of 0.001172 and 0.001285, with the MACD line slightly below the signal line but narrowing. This signals decreasing bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover soon, aligning with anticipated upward price action.
Stochastic (5, 3, 3): The Stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions at 81.64 and 66.23, suggesting short-term bullish strength. However, given these elevated levels, traders should also consider the possibility of a brief corrective pullback before the bullish trend resumes.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is visible at around 1.15500, a recent consolidation zone and neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Resistance: Key resistance is situated at approximately 1.16460, previously tested and historically relevant for price reactions.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Overall, EURUSD technical analysis for the H4 timeframe shows strong bullish potential supported by technical indicators and price action formations. However, the imminent release of significant US and Eurozone economic data could introduce volatility. Traders should closely monitor the Parabolic SAR for confirmation of bullish momentum and consider temporary pullbacks indicated by the Stochastic oscillator.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.03.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP currency pair is influenced today by several key economic events from both Europe and the UK. The GBP is awaiting data from S&P Global regarding the Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a critical indicator of economic health that can significantly influence the British Pound. A reading above forecast could strengthen the GBP. Additionally, remarks from Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann might impact the GBP, as traders look for insights into future monetary policy. For the Eurozone, retail sales data from Eurostat and the French 10-year bond auction results are due today, which could moderately impact the EUR depending on consumer spending outcomes and bond market sentiment.


Price Action:
EURGBP H4 analysis reveals a strong bearish momentum following a previously sharp bullish trend. Recently, sellers have regained control, pushing the price sharply lower within a clearly defined bearish channel. Price is currently heading toward the lower band of this channel, suggesting a potential continuation of this bearish trend in the near term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Adaptive Moving Average (9): The adaptive moving average is currently situated above the latest candles, indicating significant selling pressure and validating the ongoing bearish momentum. The proximity of the average line to the candles suggests potential continued resistance to upward movements.
RSI (14): The RSI is currently at 29.65, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests the bearish momentum is strong, but caution is advised as the market may experience a temporary bullish retracement due to the oversold scenario.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD is at -0.000591 with the signal line at 0.000208, clearly in bearish territory. This negative crossover further supports ongoing bearish momentum, indicating a continuation of downward price action.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at the lower boundary of the bearish channel around 0.87150, a critical area where buying interest might emerge.
Resistance: Nearest resistance is identified at 0.87650, corresponding with the adaptive moving average line and previous consolidation zones.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURGBP’s technical and fundamental analysis on the H4 timeframe suggests a strong bearish bias supported by clear price action and bearish signals from technical indicators. Traders should watch closely the lower boundary of the bearish channel for potential reversals or continuation signals. Additionally, today's economic news releases could bring volatility, potentially altering the pair's current dynamics.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.04.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.05.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair today is influenced strongly by U.S. inflation-related releases and Canadian labor-market data, both of which typically generate high volatility in USD-CAD fundamental analysis. For the USD, attention is centered on delayed PCE, Consumer Spending, Disposable Personal Income, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, all of which remain key components in the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate. Higher-than-expected readings tend to strengthen the USD by boosting expectations of tighter monetary policy. On the Canadian side, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are due, forming critical indicators of economic momentum. Strong job creation or a lower unemployment rate would likely support the CAD, adding downward pressure on the USD CAD pair during today’s session.


Price Action
The USDCAD price action on the H4 chart shows a clear descending trend, with the market producing lower highs and lower lows consistent with bearish momentum. The price is trading tightly beneath a well-respected descending trendline, confirming strong selling pressure each time price attempts to retest resistance. Currently, the pair is hovering around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as strong support and is preventing a deeper decline. Price remains trapped between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels, indicating consolidation inside a bearish structure, with the broader technical outlook still favoring the downside unless a significant breakout occurs.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (9 & 21 EMA): The 9-EMA is below the 21-EMA, both sloping downward and confirming strong bearish momentum. Price continues to reject these EMAs as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the descending trend.
RSI (28): RSI at 41.11 reflects moderate bearish momentum without entering oversold territory. The indicator supports continuation of the downtrend unless a divergence emerges.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Stochastic near 53–55 sits in neutral territory, indicating a short-term pause in momentum. No overbought or oversold signals are present, allowing the downtrend to remain intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: The nearest strong support lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement zone, which has repeatedly halted bearish extensions.
Resistance: The closest resistance is the descending trendline combined with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which has repeatedly capped bullish retracements.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-CAD H4 technical and fundamental forecast currently supports a bearish continuation, driven by the downward EMA structure, trendline resistance, and price trading within a weakening consolidation zone. Today’s fundamental releases from both the U.S. and Canada may generate increased volatility and potential breakout conditions. Traders should monitor the 23.6% Fibonacci support closely, as a breakdown could accelerate downside continuation, while a reclaim of 38.2% may trigger a corrective rally. As always, apply disciplined risk management when trading major economic releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.05.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair today is influenced by a dense cluster of US labor-market data and Japanese economic releases, creating a potentially volatile environment for forex traders. On the USD side, markets await multiple delayed JOLTS releases, the NFIB Small Business Index, high-frequency ADP employment data (NER Pulse), and the Conference Board Leading Indicators, all of which may inject significant momentum into USD price action due to their strong links with labor demand, inflation expectations, and consumer spending. Higher-than-forecast job openings or employment numbers typically support the USD by strengthening expectations for a tighter monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the JPY faces notable domestic catalysts, including the BOJ’s monthly Monetary Base and Machine Tool Orders, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda—a key event that often causes volatility as traders look for signals on rate normalization or policy adjustments. Combined, these events make today highly relevant for USD-JPY fundamental analysis, with macroeconomic sentiment likely driving stronger short-term swings.


Price Action
The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming the ongoing medium-term bullish trend. The most recent correction pushed the price down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, where buyers regained control, forming a rebound and re-establishing bullish pressure. Price action now shows a clean upward movement as the candles climb back above the short-term moving average cluster, signaling renewed buyer interest. The break of the recent minor pullback structure reinforces that USD JPY price action maintains a bullish outlook as long as the channel support remains intact.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 21): Price is trending higher with healthy corrections, and the recent MA-9 bullish crossover above MA-21 after touching the lower channel confirms renewed upside momentum. Trading above both moving averages keeps the USDJPY H4 outlook firmly bullish.
RSI (14): RSI at 58.98 signals positive momentum without being overbought, suggesting further room for the uptrend to extend. This supports sustained bullish price action on the USDJPY H4 chart.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic above 80 reflects strong bullish pressure but also warns of possible short-term pullbacks. As long as %K stays above %D, momentum still favors buyers, with any dip likely to be corrective within the broader uptrend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Key support sits near 155.40 – 155.60, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the recent bullish crossover zone.
Resistance: Major resistance emerges near 157.20 – 157.50, close to the upper channel band and recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-JPY H4 forecast confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, supported by the price action rebound from channel support and the MA-9/MA-21 bullish crossover. RSI remains constructive, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests strong momentum but potential for short-term volatility. With today’s heavy USD labor-market calendar and multiple JPY releases—including BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech—traders should expect increased volatility and swift intraday shifts. The broader trend remains upward as long as price holds above the ascending channel support.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.09.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD pair remains influenced significantly by upcoming US economic events and speeches. Today, investors anticipate remarks from the US President regarding economic policies, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data concerning crude oil inventory could affect market sentiment indirectly, reflecting risk appetite and USD strength, consequently affecting the BTCUSD pair. Traders should closely monitor these events, as they can trigger sharp market reactions influencing short-term Bitcoin valuations.


Price Action:
Analyzing BTCUSD price action on the H4 timeframe, the pair has exhibited a predominantly bearish movement within a descending channel. Recently, BTCUSD has shown breakout failures, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Although the candles have now broken above the channel, the pattern's history suggests caution, as this breakout could also fail. However, given the long-term bullish nature of Bitcoin, a reversal to an upward trend is expected in the near future, pending confirmation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, the Parabolic SAR dots are below the candles, suggesting short-term bullish momentum in the BTCUSD market. Traders might consider this an early signal for potential trend reversal if sustained above the bearish channel.
RSI (14): With an RSI reading of 56.68, BTCUSD remains in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. This indicates moderate bullish potential, leaving room for additional upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
Stochastic (5, 3, 3): The Stochastic oscillator at 69.57 and 67.68 demonstrates a bullish bias but is nearing the overbought zone. Traders should be wary of potential short-term retracements due to profit-taking near resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for BTCUSD is established near the lower channel line, around the recent low at approximately $89,000, providing a critical psychological barrier.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is observed around the recent breakout high at approximately $93,500, serving as an immediate test point for continued bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD analysis on the H4 chart suggests a cautious approach. The recent breakout from the bearish channel could indicate a bullish reversal, but confirmation is necessary to ensure sustainable upward momentum. Key indicators support a bullish scenario in the short term, though traders must closely monitor upcoming USD economic data and political events, as these can significantly influence market dynamics and BTC price volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.10.2025