Daily Trading Analysis & Technical

Discussion in 'Trading Systems and Strategies' started by xtreamforex, Mar 27, 2018.

  1. xt

    xtreamforex New Member
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    EUR/USD: BULLS EMBOLDENED AS TRADE WAR FEARS ABATE, UPSIDE BIAS STRENGTHENS
    • The unwinding of EUR/JPY shorts triggered a bullish break in the EUR/USD.
    • Risk reversals adopt a bullish bias, signaling increased demand for EUR calls.
    • Technicals favor a rally to 1.25-1.2550, MAs trend higher.
    The risk-on action in the equities on Monday triggered an unwinding of the EUR/JPY shorts. The resulting demand for the common currency pushed the EUR/USD to 1.2462 – the highest level since Feb. 16.

    Also, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals turned positive yesterday, signaling the implied volatility premium for EUR calls is higher than the implied volatility premium for puts, i.e. the investors are seeking upside protection (EUR calls) against a further rise in the spot.

    Further, the daily chart shows the pair has breached the descending trendline (sloping downwards from the Feb. 16 high and March 8 high) in a convincing manner, signaling a continuation of the rally from the March 1 low of 1.2154. The 5, 10 & 20-day moving averages (MA) are trending north (bullish formation) and pointing higher. On similar lines, the 50-day MA, 100-day MA and 200-day MA are positioned in favor of the bulls.

    Clearly, the spot looks ready to revisit the Feb. 16 high of 1.2556 and may possibly break higher towards 1.26 if the risk assets remain bid and the Eurozone sentiment/business confidence numbers due at 09:00 GMT better estimates.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels


    As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2450. A break above 1.25 (psychological level) would target 1.25 (psychological number) en route to 1.2556 (2018 high Feb.16). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.2329 (21-day MA) followed by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and finally 1.2165 (low Jan.18).

    Visit XtreamForex For more Fundamental & Technical Analysis
     
  2. Sharon

    Sharon Moderator
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    Yes agree to the above inputs, seems EURUSD is going up.
    Good work xtreamorex
     
  3. Al

    Alison Perry New Member
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    I agree with this. That's why it is so important that you understand the Basic Technical analysis to predict the future movement of the market and of the prices base on the past and to j know which direction to trade on.
     
  4. xt

    xtreamforex12 New Member
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    USD/CNY: Trade War Turned into a Currency War and Escalates the Relationships Between the US and China
    The US-China trade war has turned into a currency war. The latest manufacturing numbers released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics yesterday show the first hard evidence that US President Donald Trump has weakened Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hand in the nine-month-long trade war between the two economic superpowers. In the face of escalating US tariffs against Chinese goods, Chinese factory orders have declined after 15 months of expansion.
    The news should excite currency traders who have sought to profit from increased volatility in the normally stable yuan this year. As a currency based on a fixed exchange rate controlled by the steady hand of the Chinese central bank, the Yuan has not heretofore received a lot of attention from traders. But traders should be aware that China has drawn a currency weapon to help prop up the Yuan.
    The USD/CNY fell slightly to 6.8688 in early morning European trading but is still stable. The small bounce up seemed like a tepid response to evidence the US trade tactics are taking a toll on China’s manufacturing sector. But traders should take into account a heavier government price setting hand when estimating Yuan price moves.
    In September, the South China Morning Post reported that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has reintroduced the ‘counter-cyclical factor mechanism’—described as a ‘black box’ used by market makers when setting the Yuan fixed exchange rate to protect against depreciation. Typically, the fixed rate is determined based on the previous day’s close and overnight changes in the basket of currencies the Yuan tracks. This rate is allowed to fluctuate up to 2 percent in the forex markets. Just before the trade war began in January, as the Yuan stabilized, China had withdrawn the mechanism but as the trade war puts downward pressure on the Yuan, the PBOC has decided to reinstate it.
    Read more Click here
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
  5. Ed

    Edith.M New Member
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    Well put, we cannot ignore the ongoing trade wars between US and China. They will likely shape a lot of things in the days to come. We should also keep a close watch on the events surrounding the $5 billion arms deal between India and Russia. Here are more events we expect to further shape the global foreign exchange arena.
     

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