Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.02.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under moderate pressure as traders anticipate remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C. A more hawkish tone from her could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on gold prices, given the inverse correlation between the two. Additionally, upcoming RealClearMarkets/TIPP Consumer Confidence data and Wards Auto Sales figures may provide further insight into the strength of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected consumer or auto data could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, dampening gold’s short-term bullish outlook. Conversely, dovish commentary or weaker data may revive safe-haven demand for gold in the H4 and daily sessions.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, GOLD-USD continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout in either direction. The price recently moved from the upper half of the Bollinger Bands toward the middle band, which is acting as a short-term support zone. The upper Bollinger Band aligns closely with a bearish trendline, forming the upper boundary of the flag-like structure. Meanwhile, the middle Bollinger Band provides support, and the next key support area could be found around the lower band, near the bottom of the triangle. The overall price action remains neutral-to-bullish as long as gold stays above the ascending lower trendline.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price moved from the upper half toward the middle band, which acts as the first support level. The upper band aligns with the bearish trendline, while the lower band near $4,110 is the next support zone.
RSI (14): Currently at 59.55, indicating moderate bullish momentum with room to rise before overbought conditions. A drop below 50 would signal a possible short-term correction.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Values at 32.91 and 39.78 show mild downward momentum, suggesting short-term consolidation. A rebound above 40 could confirm renewed bullish momentum on the H4 chart.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is seen near $4,200–$4,180, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band and the lower side of the recent consolidation range.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies around $4,260–$4,280, matching the upper Bollinger Band and the bearish trendline forming the upper boundary of the triangle.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GOLD/USD H4 chart analysis indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle, reflecting indecision before a potential breakout. The technical indicators, including RSI and Stochastic, show a balance between bullish and bearish forces, suggesting a cautious trading environment. Traders should closely monitor fundamental catalysts—particularly the Federal Reserve testimony—as any hawkish commentary could push gold lower toward the lower Bollinger Band support. Conversely, dovish statements or weak USD data could spark a bullish breakout above $4,280.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.02.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EURUSD traders will closely monitor upcoming economic indicators from the US and Eurozone. In the US, traders await key reports from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve regarding employment change, import prices, capacity utilization, industrial production, and PMI data. Positive outcomes in these indicators typically strengthen the USD. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, market participants are anticipating the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and a crucial testimony from ECB President Christine Lagarde, whose remarks could significantly impact EURUSD volatility.


Price Action:
Analyzing EURUSD price action on the H4 chart reveals an overall bullish trend over the longer period. Recently, candles have adopted a bearish trajectory but have formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. Given this bullish pattern and current momentum, traders can reasonably expect bullish price action continuation towards the key resistance around the 1.18151 level, historically responsive to price action.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the EURUSD candles, very close to price action, suggesting that a potential bullish reversal may occur soon if dots shift beneath the candles, reaffirming upward momentum.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD indicator shows a current reading of 0.001172 and 0.001285, with the MACD line slightly below the signal line but narrowing. This signals decreasing bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover soon, aligning with anticipated upward price action.
Stochastic (5, 3, 3): The Stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions at 81.64 and 66.23, suggesting short-term bullish strength. However, given these elevated levels, traders should also consider the possibility of a brief corrective pullback before the bullish trend resumes.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is visible at around 1.15500, a recent consolidation zone and neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Resistance: Key resistance is situated at approximately 1.16460, previously tested and historically relevant for price reactions.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Overall, EURUSD technical analysis for the H4 timeframe shows strong bullish potential supported by technical indicators and price action formations. However, the imminent release of significant US and Eurozone economic data could introduce volatility. Traders should closely monitor the Parabolic SAR for confirmation of bullish momentum and consider temporary pullbacks indicated by the Stochastic oscillator.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.03.2025