Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.25.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTC/USD currency pair is currently influenced by substantial economic data releases and events from the U.S., which may significantly impact market volatility. Today, various Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Lorie Logan, and Mary Daly, are scheduled to speak. Their remarks regarding future monetary policy and economic outlook could affect the strength of the USD and, consequently, the BTC/USD pair. Key economic indicators including GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance will provide traders with essential insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy and currency strength.


Price Action:
BTC-USD pair analysis on the H4 chart indicates a clear upward trend. Recently, BTCUSD reached a crucial support zone around 111,790, coinciding closely with an established ascending trend line. The price has successfully broken through the resistance line of the recent correction, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. Current price action indicates potential further upside, targeting the 117,600 level.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (240): The price is currently struggling around the EMA (240), serving as a dynamic resistance level. A confirmed break and close above this EMA could strengthen bullish sentiment.
RSI (28): Currently, the RSI is at 47.80, reflecting a neutral momentum environment. This indicates sufficient room for price appreciation before reaching overbought conditions, thus supporting potential upward movement.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram exhibits weakening bearish momentum, suggesting the possibility of an imminent bullish crossover. This potential shift signals increasing bullish pressure in the near term.
Parabolic SAR: Recent dots of the Parabolic SAR indicator are placed beneath the price candles, reaffirming the bullish sentiment and indicating a bullish trend continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and critical support lies around the 111,790 area, which aligns with the established ascending trend line.
Resistance: The primary resistance level to watch is at 117,600, representing the next key target for the ongoing bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC/USD on the H4 chart maintains a bullish outlook, supported by successful trendline testing and encouraging signals from technical indicators including EMA, RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR. Market participants should carefully monitor today's key U.S. economic events and Federal Reserve speeches, as any unexpected commentary or data could induce significant volatility and potentially influence short-term price action. Traders are advised to implement appropriate risk management strategies considering potential market fluctuations due to economic news.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.25.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.26.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-JPY currency pair today faces a critical trading session with significant economic data releases from the US. Traders should closely monitor Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Disposable Personal Income, and Consumer Spending reports, as better-than-forecasted results usually strengthen the USD. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman could inject volatility depending on their commentary regarding inflation and interest rates. For JPY, traders anticipate Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) to provide early indications of Japan's inflationary trends, potentially influencing market sentiment towards JPY strength.


Price Action:
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair in the H4 timeframe shows a decisive bullish trend following a strong rebound from the lower boundary of an ascending channel. Currently, the pair is testing the middle channel line with strong bullish momentum, yet faces notable resistance around the 149.790 level, which could trigger a corrective phase before further upward attempts. Traders should watch closely for price rejection or breakout signals around this key resistance zone to confirm the next directional move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has breached the upper Bollinger Band significantly, indicating a possible short-term overextension and signaling potential corrective price action soon. A retracement toward the middle band may occur, providing traders with opportunities for entry.
RSI (14): Currently at 75.55, the RSI clearly indicates overbought conditions. This suggests a high probability of price retracement or consolidation before further bullish moves resume. Traders should be cautious of potential short-term reversals.
MACD (5,15,5): The MACD indicator remains positive with the MACD line notably above the signal line, accompanied by a rising histogram. This confirms robust bullish momentum; however, traders should monitor closely for any divergence as an early reversal sign.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at approximately 148.600, coinciding with the ascending channel’s middle line and the upper Bollinger Band breakout point. Further support can be found at 147.850 near recent price consolidation areas.
Resistance: A significant resistance barrier exists around the 149.790 level, aligning with previous highs and major price reaction points. A decisive breakout above this level could target the channel’s upper boundary at approximately 150.400.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-JPY H4 analysis indicates strong bullish momentum reinforced by Bollinger Bands breakout, high RSI readings, and positive MACD signals. However, the pair’s overbought conditions and key resistance at 149.790 could trigger short-term corrections. Traders should remain alert to today's critical US economic reports and Fed speeches, which may significantly influence USD volatility. Moreover, Tokyo's CPI release could affect JPY strength, creating additional trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.26.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.29.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The XAUUSD pair is poised for potential volatility today due to significant news releases related to the US Dollar. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and John Williams, are scheduled to speak at various conferences and events. Hawkish remarks from these FOMC members regarding future interest rate hikes could strengthen the USD, placing downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, the release of Pending Home Sales data could further influence USD strength depending on actual versus forecasted figures, impacting GOLD/USD price action.


Price Action:
Analyzing GOLD in the H4 timeframe reveals a clear ascending channel, with the price approaching the upper boundary of this channel. The price has currently breached the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level, and bullish momentum could potentially drive it towards the Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% levels. Price remains above the 100-period moving average, indicating sustained bullish strength, though caution is warranted near channel resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (100): The price remains well above the 100-period moving average, emphasizing bullish sentiment. As long as this dynamic support holds, further upward momentum is possible.
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 59.18, signaling moderate bullish momentum with room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. Traders should watch RSI for signs of overextension near channel resistance.
MACD (24,52,18): The MACD line at 28.392 remains below the signal line at 33.310 but shows diminishing bearish divergence. This suggests a cautious bullish outlook as momentum gradually strengthens, though traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossovers.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic oscillator at 68.65 and 75.13 is nearing the overbought threshold at 80, indicating that upward momentum could soon face resistance. A crossover above the 80-level would signal increased caution for a possible price correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 3690.00 (100-period moving average), followed by 3640.00 (lower boundary of the ascending channel and recent consolidation).
Resistance: Key resistance is observed at the channel's upper boundary near 3765.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), with further levels at Fibonacci 50% and 61.8%, around 3820.00 and 3870.00, respectively.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators and current price action suggest continued bullish momentum for XAU/USD on the H4 timeframe. However, given the proximity to critical resistance levels and upcoming USD-related news, traders should anticipate heightened volatility. Careful monitoring of the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators is essential to identify early signs of reversal or continuation. Traders are advised to stay cautious and consider setting tight stop-losses due to potential sharp market reactions following Federal Reserve speakers' remarks and economic data releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.29.2025