Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.25.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTC/USD currency pair is currently influenced by substantial economic data releases and events from the U.S., which may significantly impact market volatility. Today, various Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Lorie Logan, and Mary Daly, are scheduled to speak. Their remarks regarding future monetary policy and economic outlook could affect the strength of the USD and, consequently, the BTC/USD pair. Key economic indicators including GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance will provide traders with essential insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy and currency strength.


Price Action:
BTC-USD pair analysis on the H4 chart indicates a clear upward trend. Recently, BTCUSD reached a crucial support zone around 111,790, coinciding closely with an established ascending trend line. The price has successfully broken through the resistance line of the recent correction, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. Current price action indicates potential further upside, targeting the 117,600 level.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (240): The price is currently struggling around the EMA (240), serving as a dynamic resistance level. A confirmed break and close above this EMA could strengthen bullish sentiment.
RSI (28): Currently, the RSI is at 47.80, reflecting a neutral momentum environment. This indicates sufficient room for price appreciation before reaching overbought conditions, thus supporting potential upward movement.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram exhibits weakening bearish momentum, suggesting the possibility of an imminent bullish crossover. This potential shift signals increasing bullish pressure in the near term.
Parabolic SAR: Recent dots of the Parabolic SAR indicator are placed beneath the price candles, reaffirming the bullish sentiment and indicating a bullish trend continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and critical support lies around the 111,790 area, which aligns with the established ascending trend line.
Resistance: The primary resistance level to watch is at 117,600, representing the next key target for the ongoing bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC/USD on the H4 chart maintains a bullish outlook, supported by successful trendline testing and encouraging signals from technical indicators including EMA, RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR. Market participants should carefully monitor today's key U.S. economic events and Federal Reserve speeches, as any unexpected commentary or data could induce significant volatility and potentially influence short-term price action. Traders are advised to implement appropriate risk management strategies considering potential market fluctuations due to economic news.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.25.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.26.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-JPY currency pair today faces a critical trading session with significant economic data releases from the US. Traders should closely monitor Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Disposable Personal Income, and Consumer Spending reports, as better-than-forecasted results usually strengthen the USD. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman could inject volatility depending on their commentary regarding inflation and interest rates. For JPY, traders anticipate Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) to provide early indications of Japan's inflationary trends, potentially influencing market sentiment towards JPY strength.


Price Action:
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair in the H4 timeframe shows a decisive bullish trend following a strong rebound from the lower boundary of an ascending channel. Currently, the pair is testing the middle channel line with strong bullish momentum, yet faces notable resistance around the 149.790 level, which could trigger a corrective phase before further upward attempts. Traders should watch closely for price rejection or breakout signals around this key resistance zone to confirm the next directional move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has breached the upper Bollinger Band significantly, indicating a possible short-term overextension and signaling potential corrective price action soon. A retracement toward the middle band may occur, providing traders with opportunities for entry.
RSI (14): Currently at 75.55, the RSI clearly indicates overbought conditions. This suggests a high probability of price retracement or consolidation before further bullish moves resume. Traders should be cautious of potential short-term reversals.
MACD (5,15,5): The MACD indicator remains positive with the MACD line notably above the signal line, accompanied by a rising histogram. This confirms robust bullish momentum; however, traders should monitor closely for any divergence as an early reversal sign.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at approximately 148.600, coinciding with the ascending channel’s middle line and the upper Bollinger Band breakout point. Further support can be found at 147.850 near recent price consolidation areas.
Resistance: A significant resistance barrier exists around the 149.790 level, aligning with previous highs and major price reaction points. A decisive breakout above this level could target the channel’s upper boundary at approximately 150.400.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-JPY H4 analysis indicates strong bullish momentum reinforced by Bollinger Bands breakout, high RSI readings, and positive MACD signals. However, the pair’s overbought conditions and key resistance at 149.790 could trigger short-term corrections. Traders should remain alert to today's critical US economic reports and Fed speeches, which may significantly influence USD volatility. Moreover, Tokyo's CPI release could affect JPY strength, creating additional trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.26.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.29.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The XAUUSD pair is poised for potential volatility today due to significant news releases related to the US Dollar. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and John Williams, are scheduled to speak at various conferences and events. Hawkish remarks from these FOMC members regarding future interest rate hikes could strengthen the USD, placing downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, the release of Pending Home Sales data could further influence USD strength depending on actual versus forecasted figures, impacting GOLD/USD price action.


Price Action:
Analyzing GOLD in the H4 timeframe reveals a clear ascending channel, with the price approaching the upper boundary of this channel. The price has currently breached the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level, and bullish momentum could potentially drive it towards the Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% levels. Price remains above the 100-period moving average, indicating sustained bullish strength, though caution is warranted near channel resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Average (100): The price remains well above the 100-period moving average, emphasizing bullish sentiment. As long as this dynamic support holds, further upward momentum is possible.
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 59.18, signaling moderate bullish momentum with room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions. Traders should watch RSI for signs of overextension near channel resistance.
MACD (24,52,18): The MACD line at 28.392 remains below the signal line at 33.310 but shows diminishing bearish divergence. This suggests a cautious bullish outlook as momentum gradually strengthens, though traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossovers.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic oscillator at 68.65 and 75.13 is nearing the overbought threshold at 80, indicating that upward momentum could soon face resistance. A crossover above the 80-level would signal increased caution for a possible price correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 3690.00 (100-period moving average), followed by 3640.00 (lower boundary of the ascending channel and recent consolidation).
Resistance: Key resistance is observed at the channel's upper boundary near 3765.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), with further levels at Fibonacci 50% and 61.8%, around 3820.00 and 3870.00, respectively.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators and current price action suggest continued bullish momentum for XAU/USD on the H4 timeframe. However, given the proximity to critical resistance levels and upcoming USD-related news, traders should anticipate heightened volatility. Careful monitoring of the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators is essential to identify early signs of reversal or continuation. Traders are advised to stay cautious and consider setting tight stop-losses due to potential sharp market reactions following Federal Reserve speakers' remarks and economic data releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.29.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.30.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EUR-JPY traders should be attentive to several key economic indicators and events affecting the Euro and the Japanese Yen. For the Euro (EUR), Destatis and INSEE releases, including the Import Price Index, Real Retail Sales, and Consumer Price Index (CPI), will significantly influence market sentiment. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel are due to speak, with traders closely monitoring their speeches for hints on future monetary policy direction. On the Japanese Yen (JPY) side, upcoming releases from METI regarding Industrial Production and Retail Trade, alongside MLIT's data on Housing Starts, will provide essential indicators of Japan's economic health, potentially influencing the Yen's valuation.


Price Action:
The EUR/JPY pair demonstrates a bullish bias in the H4 timeframe. Price action shows an upward trend within a clearly defined ascending channel. Currently, EURJPY has reached the midline of the channel, and momentum appears moderate, suggesting a potential phase of consolidation or correction before resuming the uptrend towards the channel's upper boundary.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (55): The 55-period Exponential Moving Average is positioned below the current price, acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. A break below the EMA would signal a possible reversal or deeper correction.
RSI (28): The RSI indicator currently stands at 51.14, indicating a neutral momentum state. There's ample room for price movements in either direction, supporting the potential for short-term consolidation or mild retracement before a further directional decision.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is slightly positive, showing reduced bullish momentum. The MACD line is very close to the signal line, implying the market could enter a period of sideways trading or mild downward correction if momentum continues to weaken.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at approximately 173.00, aligning with recent consolidation zones and the EMA (55). Below this level, additional support is at 171.50.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at around 175.50, corresponding with recent swing highs. Further resistance is near the upper channel boundary at approximately 177.00.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURJPY's technical analysis on the H4 chart indicates sustained bullish sentiment but also highlights a potential temporary consolidation or correction. While technical indicators like EMA (55) and the ascending channel favor the bulls, RSI neutrality and weakening MACD momentum signal caution. Given significant upcoming economic news and speeches affecting both EUR and JPY, traders should prepare for possible volatility spikes. Attention should be paid to key support and resistance levels to guide trading decisions effectively.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.30.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.01.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair today is influenced by a series of key Eurozone and U.S. economic releases. On the Euro side, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the Eurostat Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are in focus, both critical indicators of inflation and overall economic health in the Eurozone. A stronger-than-expected PMI above 50.0 or a higher CPI reading could provide bullish momentum for the Euro, as they would reinforce expectations for ECB policy tightening. Additionally, German Bund auctions and speeches from ECB officials, such as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, could provide further clues about monetary policy direction. On the U.S. side, the market awaits the ADP employment report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and speeches from Federal Reserve members, all of which may increase USD volatility and weigh on EUR USD dynamics. Traders should expect heightened volatility during these releases as both currencies face competing fundamental drivers.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, EURUSD is trading within a slight bullish trend channel, moving horizontally with a gradual upward slope. The pair is ranging between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, having recently bounced from the lower band and climbed above the middle band. Currently, the candles are positioned in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, supported by Parabolic SAR dots beneath the price, signaling a continuation of short-term bullish momentum. However, the market structure shows consolidation, and traders should monitor whether the pair can sustain momentum toward the upper channel line near resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EURUSD price is moving within a narrow bullish channel, currently in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. The latest bullish bounce from the lower band to the upper band around 1.1780 highlights ongoing buying pressure. If the price fails to break the upper band, sideways consolidation may follow.
Parabolic SAR (Step 0.02, Max 0.2): The latest Parabolic SAR dots (steelblue) are positioned below the candles, confirming short-term bullish sentiment. As long as the dots remain beneath the price action, upward momentum is likely to continue. A reversal would be signaled only if the dots shift above the candles.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 50.85, hovering around the neutral zone. This indicates that the EUR/USD is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction. A sustained push above 60 would confirm stronger bullish momentum, while a drop below 45 could suggest renewed bearish pressure.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD shows values at 0.000040 and -0.000551, reflecting weak momentum with the lines converging. This signals a potential shift in momentum—either a continuation of the current sideways range or the early stage of a breakout. A bullish crossover would support upside continuation.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R is at -30.29, close to the overbought threshold. This suggests that buying pressure has been dominant in the short term, but the market may soon face resistance if momentum does not strengthen further.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first support is at 1.1720, followed by 1.1660, and deeper support lies at 1.1600.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.1780, while the next level is around 1.1820, aligned with the channel’s upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR-USD H4 chart shows the pair trading in a slight bullish trend channel, with technical indicators pointing toward mild bullish bias but with signs of consolidation. The RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest cautious optimism, while the MACD highlights weak but potentially strengthening momentum. Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone CPI, PMI data, and U.S. employment figures, as these events may serve as catalysts for a breakout from the current consolidation range. Given the balanced technical outlook and high-impact news on both sides, EUR USD traders should prepare for potential volatility spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.01.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.02.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CHF currency pair currently anticipates significant volatility due to key economic announcements from the US and Switzerland. Traders should closely watch today's speeches from FOMC voting members Austan Goolsbee and Lorie Logan, as their stance could heavily influence the US Dollar. Additionally, US employment data—including job cut announcements and initial jobless claims—will impact market sentiment and USD volatility. Meanwhile, the CHF could experience movements related to Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), essential for assessing inflation and future monetary policy.


Price Action:
The USD-CHF analysis on the H4 chart clearly indicates a bearish channel. Recently, the price reacted significantly around the 0.791645 level and initiated an upward correction. Currently, USDCHF is struggling at the channel’s upper boundary, signifying a critical juncture. If the pair breaks above this resistance line, the price could target the 0.80600 resistance zone. Conversely, a failure to breach this line may push the pair back towards the previous support zone, highlighting key decision-making levels for traders.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (100): The 100-period EMA is currently situated below the price, providing dynamic support and suggesting a short-term bullish momentum. Traders should monitor how the price interacts with this moving average for potential reversal signals.
MACD (24,52,18): The MACD indicator shows a narrowing histogram and a potential bullish crossover signal, indicating decreasing bearish momentum and possible bullish continuation. Traders should watch closely for confirmation through a sustained bullish crossover above the zero line.
RSI (28): The RSI indicator is presently at 52, suggesting neutral momentum with no immediate signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This level provides room for the price to move in either direction, reflecting indecision among market participants.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is located at approximately 0.791645, aligning with recent price action and the lower channel boundary.
Resistance: Key resistance levels are identified at the upper band of the bearish channel around 0.79685, with a critical breakout resistance positioned at 0.80600.


Conclusion and Consideration:
USD CHF H4 chart analysis highlights a critical phase, with potential for both bullish continuation and bearish reversal. Technical indicators currently suggest cautious optimism, with bullish scenarios favored if the channel resistance breaks convincingly. Fundamental developments today, particularly US employment data and FOMC speeches, could significantly impact the USD Vs. CHF direction. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared for volatility spikes due to these fundamental events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.02.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR-GBP currency pair on the H4 timeframe today faces mixed fundamental drivers. Eurozone banks are closed for German Unity Day, causing lower liquidity and potentially irregular volatility for the Euro. On the GBP side, key volatility may arise from the release of the UK Services PMI by S&P Global, as a better-than-forecasted number typically strengthens GBP. Additionally, the speech by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey could inject further volatility into GBP pairs, as traders closely scrutinize his words for hawkish or dovish hints regarding future monetary policy.


Price Action:
Analyzing EUR/GBP price action on the H4 timeframe reveals a clear bullish trend supported by a robust ascending trend line. Recent price movements show consolidation just below a strong resistance zone, indicating potential bullish exhaustion. The pair has been repeatedly testing this resistance, forming a tight sideways movement, suggesting an upcoming breakout could occur. Traders should watch for decisive candlestick patterns at these critical price levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (28): The RSI is currently around the neutral zone at approximately 50.09, indicating balanced market sentiment. It suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions and implies the possibility of either bullish continuation or a pullback depending on upcoming market events and news impacts.
MACD (24,52,18): The MACD shows weakening bullish momentum as the MACD line remains slightly above the signal line, but the histogram bars indicate a loss of upward momentum. Traders should closely monitor for a potential bearish crossover, which would indicate possible bearish pressure building.
Moving Average (180): The price is hovering around the moving average line, reflecting uncertainty and market indecision. The price staying above this moving average maintains bullish sentiment; however, any break below it would suggest a short-term bearish shift.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is at approximately 0.8680, closely aligned with the ascending trend line and previous price congestion zones.
Resistance: Key resistance is identified around the 0.8726 mark, where repeated price tests have recently occurred, making it a significant level for traders to monitor for potential breakout opportunities.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR GBP on the H4 chart currently maintains a cautiously bullish bias, underpinned by fundamental catalysts and clear technical indicators. The current consolidation near resistance and neutral RSI highlights the importance of upcoming news events from the UK. Traders should carefully watch the PMI data release and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech for potential market-moving impacts. A confirmed breakout above resistance or below immediate support will likely set the short-term direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.03.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

LTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The LTC/USD cryptocurrency pair has been positively influenced by Bitcoin’s recent surge above $125,000, driving optimistic sentiment across the crypto market. Additionally, ongoing speculations around ETF approvals and increased institutional interest provide bullish momentum for Litecoin. However, the crypto sector continues to face regulatory headwinds, particularly with EU watchdogs urging stricter oversight on stablecoins, which could introduce short-term volatility and cautious sentiment among investors.


Price Action:
The LTCUSD pair on the H4 chart recently exhibited a sharp upward movement and is now facing strong resistance at the upper band of a sideways channel. The pair has successfully broken through the correction resistance line, indicating bullish intent. A retracement towards the 105.00 level would present an ideal buying opportunity, provided support holds. If bullish momentum persists, the upper boundary of the ascending channel serves as the next potential target.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (300): The EMA (300) is significantly below the current price, indicating a potential overextension and signaling a likely near-term correction.
RSI (28): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting limited upward potential in the immediate term and hinting at an impending price retracement.
MACD (5,15,5): The MACD is currently bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line, but the histogram’s diminishing bars indicate decreasing bullish momentum.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is currently within overbought levels, increasing the probability of short-term corrective movements or sideways consolidation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is observed at approximately 105.00, coinciding with the recently broken resistance line. Secondary support lies at the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located at the upper boundary of the current sideways channel, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The LTC-USD H4 chart analysis currently reflects bullish tendencies, underpinned by recent price action and key technical indicators. However, caution is warranted due to signs of weakening bullish momentum indicated by RSI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators. Traders should closely monitor potential retracement levels around 105.00 for buying opportunities and remain vigilant about regulatory developments that could introduce volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for LTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on LTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.06.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair is poised for moderate volatility today as multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all FOMC voting members known for providing policy clues. Any hawkish tone from these speeches could strengthen the USD by reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US will also release Trade Balance data, which can affect demand for the dollar through export and import performance. On the Canadian side, the International Merchandise Trade report is due, which may support the CAD if exports outperform expectations. Overall, fundamental sentiment appears mixed, with USD data and speeches leaning slightly bullish, while CAD’s trade data may provide some counterbalance.


Price Action:
In the USD/CAD H4 timeframe, the pair has been in a bullish trend for the last three weeks, forming higher highs within an ascending wedge pattern. However, the recent candles show weakness as four out of the last five candles are bearish, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. The price has rejected the 0.0 Fibonacci level (around 1.39850) and is now moving toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (around 1.39250). A clear break below the lower green trendline could confirm a potential bearish reversal, while the current sideways action indicates indecision ahead of key US data and Fed speeches.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (9 & 17): The 9-period MA remains slightly above the 17-period MA but both are flattening and nearly touching the last candle. The price has closed below both lines, indicating weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a short-term bearish shift.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line (0.000776) is nearing a bearish crossover with the signal line (0.001070), while the histogram is fading toward zero. This reflects declining buying pressure and hints at an upcoming momentum shift to the downside.
RSI (14): The RSI at 52.97 shows a neutral tone, hovering just above the 50 mark. Momentum is fading, and a drop below 50 would confirm growing bearish sentiment.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is found near 1.39250, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and the lower ascending wedge boundary. A break below this could open the door to deeper correction toward 1.38800 (38.2% Fib level).
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies around 1.39850, which coincides with the wedge’s upper boundary and the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level. Sustained movement above this could reestablish the bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 technical outlook shows that while the pair has been in a strong uptrend, it is now entering a potential reversal phase as bullish momentum weakens. The sideways consolidation, declining MACD, and neutral RSI all point to a possible short-term bearish correction toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level or lower. However, traders should remain cautious ahead of multiple Fed speakers and trade data releases that could inject volatility into the pair. A decisive break below the ascending trendline would confirm the shift toward a bearish USD-CAD outlook on the H4 chart.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.07.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The BTCUSD pair currently demonstrates sensitivity to ongoing financial market conditions. Today, substantial volatility might be expected given the scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Alberto Musalem, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari, alongside Governor Michael Barr. Their statements often provide critical insights into the US monetary policy direction, directly influencing investor sentiment and, consequently, risk assets such as Bitcoin. Traders will closely monitor these speeches for hawkish or dovish signals, significantly impacting BTCUSD price movements.


Price Action
BTCUSD price action analysis in the H4 timeframe indicates a pronounced bullish movement, recently completing a sharp upward trajectory toward the key resistance zone around level 123108.61. Previously, the candles struggled and failed to break this significant price zone. However, the recent retracement below this level may be temporary, as the robust bullish sentiment from the preceding candles signals potential upward momentum. Should the price decisively break above the resistance at 123108.61, the Fibonacci expansion level 61.8 could serve as the next target.


Key Technical Indicators
MACD: The MACD histogram currently registers a level of 1469.238, while the signal line remains at 2217.962. This divergence suggests diminishing bullish momentum and cautions traders of potential short-term corrective movements, yet overall bullish bias remains intact. A bullish crossover above the signal line could reaffirm the bullish trend.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator demonstrates the K% line at 21.17 and the D% line at 51.09, indicating an oversold scenario in the short term. Given these levels, traders may anticipate a potential bullish reversal soon, reinforcing the possibility of price recovery and another bullish attempt.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, highlighting short-term bearish pressure. However, considering the preceding bullish strength, the bearish move may be limited, and traders should watch for the dots shifting below the candles to confirm renewed bullish momentum.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate technical support is visible around the psychological level of 121396.62, aligning with recent pullback lows.
Resistance: The primary resistance remains firmly set at 123108.61, a critical pivot point where the previous bullish advances faced rejection.


Conclusion and Consideration
Technical indicators and recent price action in BTCUSD on the H4 chart suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. While short-term corrective pressure persists, especially as indicated by MACD and Parabolic SAR, stochastic conditions and recent bullish dominance imply the potential for a renewed upward move. Traders must remain alert to the upcoming Federal Reserve speeches, which could significantly impact market volatility and investor sentiment. Adjustments in risk management strategies are recommended during these high-impact news events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.08.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.09.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD currency pair faces significant volatility today, driven primarily by speeches from key monetary policy figures in both the US and UK. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Governor Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak, potentially signaling future monetary policy and interest rate shifts, directly affecting USD strength. On the GBP side, BOE MPC Member Catherine Mann's speech will also be closely watched for insights on UK economic policy, adding another layer of volatility to the GBP/USD pair.


Price Action:
GBP-USD is currently exhibiting an overall bullish trend on the H4 timeframe. Recently, however, momentum has weakened considerably, with the pair entering a sideways movement. The current price action shows consolidation near a strong support zone, closely aligned with the ascending trendline and the lower Bollinger Band, signifying a critical area for potential bullish reversals or a breakout.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on GBP USD have flattened significantly, indicating sideways market movement and decreased volatility. Currently, the price is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential rebound or a critical test of support.
RSI (14): The RSI currently stands at 44, reflecting neutral momentum but slightly favoring bearish pressure. This indicates the possibility of continued short-term consolidation or a mild downward correction before resuming bullish momentum.
Stochastic (10,6,3): The stochastic oscillator reads 29.18 and 22.58, indicating the pair is close to oversold territory. This suggests potential short-term bullish momentum once a reversal confirmation is established.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate robust support is located around the 1.3340 area, coinciding with the ascending trendline and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands near the 1.3440 level, marking recent consolidation highs and a critical pivot area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical analysis indicates that GBP-USD is currently experiencing sideways price action within a broader bullish trend. Traders should closely monitor the strong support zone at approximately 1.3340 for potential bullish reversal signals. However, fundamental developments from today's central bank speakers could introduce high volatility, potentially disrupting current technical formations. Caution is advised due to the potential market impact from these high-profile speeches, as unexpected hawkish or dovish remarks could trigger sharp price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.09.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GOLD/USD (XAUUSD) market is trading cautiously as traders await key speeches from multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) members, including Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, and Alberto Musalem. Their remarks are expected to provide further clues about the Fed’s stance on inflation, monetary tightening, and future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports later today could significantly influence the USD’s direction and, in turn, impact gold prices. Any hawkish tone or stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data could strengthen the USD, putting temporary pressure on XAU/USD, while dovish commentary might support a rebound in gold. Overall, the market remains sensitive to Fed rhetoric amid lingering inflationary concerns and geopolitical risk factors that continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold.


Price Action:
On the XAUUSD H4 timeframe, the gold price has recently recorded a new All-Time High (ATH) at 4059.01 USD on October 8th, before entering a mild correction phase. The price has now moved below the psychological 4000.00 level, currently trading around 3974.68 USD. Despite this retracement, the pair remains within a clearly defined ascending bullish channel, maintaining an overall bullish structure that has persisted throughout 2025, with only one bearish month (July). The recent pullback has tested the 3940.00 support zone, which has held firm so far, indicating ongoing buyer interest. A break below this zone could expose the 3900.00 level as the next major support, while recovery above 4000.00 may resume the bullish leg toward retesting the ATH.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 & 17): The short-term MA (9) has slightly turned downward, reflecting the ongoing price correction, yet it remains above the MA (17), showing that the overall bullish structure is still intact. However, the narrowing gap between the two averages suggests potential short-term consolidation or a minor bearish crossover if downward momentum extends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI(14) stands at 49.41, indicating a neutral market sentiment after the recent overbought conditions near the ATH. This mid-range value suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers, leaving room for either a bounce from support or further correction if selling pressure strengthens.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD currently shows the main line at 23.749 and the signal line at 38.510, displaying a decreasing histogram. This signals waning bullish momentum and a possible short-term correction phase within the broader uptrend. Traders should monitor for any bearish crossover that might confirm further downside movement toward support.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support is at 3940.00, which has already shown price reaction, followed by 3900.00 as the secondary and more crucial support zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance remains at the psychological 4000.00 level, while the ATH of 4059.01 serves as the major resistance to beat for continuation of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The XAUUSD H4 chart analysis suggests that despite the recent pullback below 4000, Gold remains in a strong long-term bullish trend, supported by an ascending channel structure and firm demand from global investors. However, short-term technicals hint at potential consolidation as the market digests recent gains and anticipates fresh guidance from upcoming FOMC speeches. Traders should closely monitor support at 3940.00 and the reaction to USD-related news today, as these factors could define the next directional move. A rebound above 4000.00 would likely reignite bullish momentum, while a sustained drop below 3900.00 could trigger a deeper correction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.10.2025