skrimon
Active Member
You cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. Anything can happen. You are always operating in an environment of uncertainty.
What you can do is to take all of the available information and wait patiently until conditions favor a higher probability of one thing happening over something else. When those conditions appear you act.
What most Forex traders do is to trade current price using historical price as a reference.
That is part of the equation but what is missing is additional information to put the probabilities in your favor. Trading historical price using technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition.
P.S: If you're fed up with slow trade executions, then buckle up as AssetsFX is currently offering lightning-fast trade executions along with an ultra-wide range of trading opportunities!
An example would be “When price hits the 1.2500 level I am going to go long because I expect this down move to bounce and move higher.” What is the flaw in this logic?
You are expecting something to happen based upon a quick visual assessment of what is currently going on in the market using what you perceive as a major price point which you hope will cause a reaction that is predictable and that you can use repeatedly to profit again and again.
So what do you do? You back test this and find out that this is 70% reliable. So you start to take these trades again and again.
After a series of mostly losing trades in a string of trades you give up and move on to something else. Why didn’t this work out like you thought it would? Because you left out a host of important information. You left out the following:
Which pair are you trading and what is the personality of that pair? Average ATR, range intraday, move on important news?
What trading session are you trading-Asia, London, New York?
What day and time slot are you trading? Open, close, the valley, etc?
Where are you at in the market structure?
What is the sentiment of other traders based upon recent news?
Are the talking heads squawking about these currencies lately? Brexit, Yen at 10 year low, weak USD, etc.
What is Smart Money up to? Accumulation or distribution? Are they gathering long and short orders in a range?
Are they going to move soon? Are they setting up a stop run? Bull or bear trap? Are they active right now? Where is the next target? Is a stop run likely? Are they still pushing price to an extreme with the algos?
You can find the likely direction of movement on higher time frames and scale down to lower time frames for trade entries and exits.
As long as you trade with the prevailing order flow you will have an advantage over traders who use a simple strategy and believe that if they use a good “risk to reward ratio” they will continuously profit.
Thanks For Reading!
What you can do is to take all of the available information and wait patiently until conditions favor a higher probability of one thing happening over something else. When those conditions appear you act.
What most Forex traders do is to trade current price using historical price as a reference.
That is part of the equation but what is missing is additional information to put the probabilities in your favor. Trading historical price using technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition.
P.S: If you're fed up with slow trade executions, then buckle up as AssetsFX is currently offering lightning-fast trade executions along with an ultra-wide range of trading opportunities!
An example would be “When price hits the 1.2500 level I am going to go long because I expect this down move to bounce and move higher.” What is the flaw in this logic?
You are expecting something to happen based upon a quick visual assessment of what is currently going on in the market using what you perceive as a major price point which you hope will cause a reaction that is predictable and that you can use repeatedly to profit again and again.
So what do you do? You back test this and find out that this is 70% reliable. So you start to take these trades again and again.
After a series of mostly losing trades in a string of trades you give up and move on to something else. Why didn’t this work out like you thought it would? Because you left out a host of important information. You left out the following:
Which pair are you trading and what is the personality of that pair? Average ATR, range intraday, move on important news?
What trading session are you trading-Asia, London, New York?
What day and time slot are you trading? Open, close, the valley, etc?
Where are you at in the market structure?
What is the sentiment of other traders based upon recent news?
Are the talking heads squawking about these currencies lately? Brexit, Yen at 10 year low, weak USD, etc.
What is Smart Money up to? Accumulation or distribution? Are they gathering long and short orders in a range?
Are they going to move soon? Are they setting up a stop run? Bull or bear trap? Are they active right now? Where is the next target? Is a stop run likely? Are they still pushing price to an extreme with the algos?
You can find the likely direction of movement on higher time frames and scale down to lower time frames for trade entries and exits.
As long as you trade with the prevailing order flow you will have an advantage over traders who use a simple strategy and believe that if they use a good “risk to reward ratio” they will continuously profit.
Thanks For Reading!
