Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

US 30 declines as probability of a rate hike exceeds 90%

The US 30 outlook for today is negative, as US government bond yields have exceeded the psychological 5% level. The US 30 price currently stands at 52,177.0.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• US CPI for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year
• Today, the market will await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
• US 30 forecast for 16 September 2026: 51,530.0

Fundamental analysis

The market estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, from the current 3.50–3.75% range to 3.75–4.00%, at around 92.4%. The likelihood of the rate remaining unchanged is only 7.6%.

For the US 30 index, the situation remains moderately negative. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies, makes government bonds more attractive, and at the same time reduces the relative appeal of stock.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 30 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 could rise on a weaker yen and lower oil prices

The JP 225 index is struggling to recover for a second consecutive session following the yen's decline and lower oil prices. The current price is 64,161.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• The yen's decline following the Federal Reserve's decision improves the outlook for export-oriented Japanese companies
• Lower oil prices reduce pressure on Japan's economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports
• JP 225 forecast for 17 September 2026: 64,860 and 65,450

Fundamental analysis

The Nikkei 225 index is gaining around 0.5% on Thursday and rising above 64,200, while the broader Topix is up approximately 1%. Japanese equities continue to recover even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled the possibility of further policy tightening.

One of the main factors supporting the market has been the yen's decline against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD maintains bullish momentum after the Federal Reserve meeting

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session after rebounding from strong support. The current price is 4,367 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch
• US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 September 2026: 4,575

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session. Buyers held the 4,250 USD support level and then began testing the 4,395 USD resistance level more actively. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points removed a source of uncertainty and helped improve investor sentiment.

According to traders' average forecast, the key rate could be raised by another 25 basis points before the end of 2026. Market participants currently assess the probability of another rate increase at the October meeting at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD corrects, but record ETF inflows support gold

Physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August, which could provide long-term support for gold. The current price is 4,355 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve maintains a clear signal on the future course of monetary policy
• According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 September 2026: 4,430 and 4,315

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 21 September 2026, shows that gold is forming a corrective wave and testing the 4,355 USD level.

At its 15–16 September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00% and maintained a hawkish signal on the future course of monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team