Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

US 30 declines as probability of a rate hike exceeds 90%

The US 30 outlook for today is negative, as US government bond yields have exceeded the psychological 5% level. The US 30 price currently stands at 52,177.0.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• US CPI for August came in at 3.4% year-on-year
• Today, the market will await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
• US 30 forecast for 16 September 2026: 51,530.0

Fundamental analysis

The market estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, from the current 3.50–3.75% range to 3.75–4.00%, at around 92.4%. The likelihood of the rate remaining unchanged is only 7.6%.

For the US 30 index, the situation remains moderately negative. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies, makes government bonds more attractive, and at the same time reduces the relative appeal of stock.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 could rise on a weaker yen and lower oil prices

The JP 225 index is struggling to recover for a second consecutive session following the yen's decline and lower oil prices. The current price is 64,161.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• The yen's decline following the Federal Reserve's decision improves the outlook for export-oriented Japanese companies
• Lower oil prices reduce pressure on Japan's economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports
• JP 225 forecast for 17 September 2026: 64,860 and 65,450

Fundamental analysis

The Nikkei 225 index is gaining around 0.5% on Thursday and rising above 64,200, while the broader Topix is up approximately 1%. Japanese equities continue to recover even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled the possibility of further policy tightening.

One of the main factors supporting the market has been the yen's decline against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD maintains bullish momentum after the Federal Reserve meeting

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session after rebounding from strong support. The current price is 4,367 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is estimated at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch
• US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 September 2026: 4,575

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is rising for a second consecutive trading session. Buyers held the 4,250 USD support level and then began testing the 4,395 USD resistance level more actively. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points removed a source of uncertainty and helped improve investor sentiment.

According to traders' average forecast, the key rate could be raised by another 25 basis points before the end of 2026. Market participants currently assess the probability of another rate increase at the October meeting at 53.1%, according to CME FedWatch.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD corrects, but record ETF inflows support gold

Physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August, which could provide long-term support for gold. The current price is 4,355 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve maintains a clear signal on the future course of monetary policy
• According to the World Gold Council, physically backed gold ETFs attracted 18 billion USD in August
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 September 2026: 4,430 and 4,315

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 21 September 2026, shows that gold is forming a corrective wave and testing the 4,355 USD level.

At its 15–16 September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00% and maintained a hawkish signal on the future course of monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US 500: AI optimism outweighs the Federal Reserve rate hike

The US 500 index has resumed its rise after a decline triggered by tighter US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The current price stands at 7,778.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Meta's new AI agent, Muse, has become the most downloaded free iPhone app in the US
• Arm forecasts the server CPU market to grow by more than 35% annually. AMD estimates the market potential at 220 billion USD
• US 500 forecast for 22 September 2026: 7,950

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise its interest rate to the 3.75–4.00% range is generally a restraining factor for the US stock market, but its impact cannot be viewed as exclusively negative. The decision contains two important signals. First, monetary policy is likely to remain relatively tight for considerably longer than the market had previously expected.

For the US 500, the main negative factor is not so much the 25-basis-point rate hike itself as the change in expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US 500 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY rises as government bond yield differential supports the dollar

The probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike as early as October is 55%.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• According to Reuters, the market estimates the probability of another rate hike at the October meeting at around 55%
• The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 1.25%
• USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2026: 158.90

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY currently remains largely in favour of the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%.

The Bank of Japan has also shifted towards tighter policy. On 18 September, the regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225 under BoJ pressure: record-high rate weighs on Japanese equities as AI tries to support the market

After rising, the JP 225 index is forming another downward wave under pressure from high interest rates. The current price stands at 65,453.0.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks
• The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.3%
• JP 225 forecast for 24 September 2026: 66,160.0 and 64,960.0

Fundamental analysis

The JP 225 forecast for today, 24 September 2026, takes into account that the fundamental backdrop remains mixed: Japanese equities are supported by AI and semiconductor stocks, while rising JGB yields and tighter BoJ policy create opposing pressure.

Following a strong rally in the US technology sector, Japanese manufacturers of AI components and equipment received fresh momentum.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

US Tech rises on optimism in the AI sector

US Tech has reached a new all-time high and is now correcting. The current price is 30,682.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• The US Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 58.7
• The yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.44%, the highest level since 2004

Fundamental analysis

The combination of two factors — a sharp rise in long-term US Treasury yields and a much stronger-than-expected services business activity index — is creating a primarily negative backdrop for US Tech. This does not point to a deterioration in the US economy.

This is particularly important for US Tech. Technology companies are valued to a large extent on the basis of expected cash flows and profits to be generated many years into the future.

Read this article on RoboForex website - US Tech Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD loses ground amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations

The EURUSD pair has resumed its decline, with traders focusing on the 1.1360 support level. The rate currently stands at 1.1380.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US consumer inflation expectations rose in September
• The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 69.2%
• Key US inflation and labour market data will be released this week

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining after a correction that lasted for two consecutive trading sessions. The price is actively testing the 1.1360 support level; a breakout below this mark could accelerate the downward move and strengthen bearish momentum.

Meanwhile, Friday’s data showed a smaller-than-expected deterioration in US consumer confidence in September. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 48.1 points.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) plunges 4% as market tests the 4,110 USD level

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain just above 4,100 after falling by around 4% in the previous session, with virtually every factor currently weighing on the precious metal.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is supporting oil prices and increasing inflation risks
• The market estimates the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 70%
• Treasury yields are also reaching new multi-year highs

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,100 after falling by approximately 4% in the previous session. Pressure on XAUUSD persists due to high oil prices and the associated inflation risks, which are fuelling expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening.

Oil prices have resumed their rise following reports that Iranian representatives doubt an agreement with the US can be reached before the November midterm elections.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XRP under pressure again: ETF inflows slow and US crypto regulation stalls

The XRP price is completing a correction after the recent upward momentum, currently trading at 1.4903.

XRPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Total net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have approached 1.79 billion USD
• Ripple is developing tools for automated payments using XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin
• XRPUSD forecast for 30 September 2026: 1.6965

Fundamental analysis

The XRPUSD pair is trading amid renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, although XRP's next move largely depends on US Federal Reserve monetary policy, institutional capital inflows, and the development of Ripple's payment infrastructure.

One of the main factors supporting XRP remains capital inflows into US exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency. Total net inflows into spot XRP ETFs have approached 1.79 billion USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - XRPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

JP 225: PMI supports further gains

The JP 225 index has completed its correction and is poised to resume growth. The current price stands at 65,453.0.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• The S&P Global Japan Services PMI stood at 51.6
• The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1.3%
• JP 225 forecast for 1 October 2026:

Fundamental analysis

The JP 225 forecast for today, 1 October 2026, takes into account that the decline in the S&P Global Japan Services PMI from 52.5 to 51.6 in September 2026 is a moderately negative signal for the Japanese stock market, but does not indicate a contraction in business activity.

For the JP 225 index, the initial reaction to such data could be moderately negative or neutral. A slowdown in the services sector reduces expectations for the pace of domestic demand growth.

Read this article on RoboForex website - JP 225 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD strengthens ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release

The EURUSD pair is undergoing an upward correction as it attempts to recover from the lower boundary of the channel. The rate currently stands at 1.1256.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Rising energy and fuel prices are adding to pressure on the eurozone industrial sector
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October fell to 26.0% from 68.6% a week earlier
• EURUSD forecast for 2 October 2026: 1.1165

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is correcting after four consecutive trading sessions of declines. On the daily chart, the price has reached the lower boundary of the descending channel, which could limit selling activity and create conditions for a local recovery in the pair.

The main factor behind the EURUSD decline remains the aggressive sell-off in the US bond market, where the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a 24-year high of around 5.34%.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

DE 40 under dual pressure: high energy prices and French debt threaten index growth

Rising energy prices and the economic situation in France are putting pressure on the index and limiting growth. The price currently stands at 25,280.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• German manufacturing continued to recover in September
• The yield on 10-year German Bunds rose towards multi-year highs
• DE 40 forecast for 5 October 2026: 25,115

Fundamental analysis

The DE 40 fundamental analysis for today, 5 October 2026, takes into account that following the decline, quotes are forming an upward wave and testing the 25,280.0 level.

German manufacturing continued to recover in September, with both output and new orders increasing. However, the recovery remains uneven, while the German government points to an economic slowdown in mid-2026 and weak external demand.

Read this article on RoboForex website - DE 40 Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team