Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

Vlad RF · Jul 3, 2025

USDJPY slides down: investors cool on the US dollar

USDJPY moves lower to 143.79. The market awaits US data and monitors trade news. Details – in our analysis for 3 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

USDJPY pair continues to decline with no signs of stopping
Market focus – US trade deals and rising pressure on Japan
USDJPY forecast for 3 July 2025: 142.67

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY fell to 143.79 on Thursday. The yen gained support from a weaker dollar and continued optimism over trade negotiations.

Japanese authorities confirmed their desire for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington but did not reveal details of possible concessions. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Tokyo, calling the negotiations very difficult and threatening tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. The dissatisfaction stemmed from Japan’s limited purchases of US rice and cars.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Jul 4, 2025

XAUUSD strengthens after collapse amid strong US employment data

XAUUSD quotes are recovering due to rising safe-haven demand amid budgetary and trade risks. Current quote – 3,339 USD. Details – in our analysis for 4 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

In June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs
US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% instead of the expected 4.3%
XAUUSD forecast for 4 July 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD price is rising after yesterday’s sharp decline. Gold prices fell following strong US labour market data: in June, US companies created 147,000 new jobs – significantly above the forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% instead of the projected 4.3%. These figures reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the interest rate at its current level.

However, concerns over the growing US budget deficit and persistent uncertainty in trade policy have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor was the passage of President Donald Trump’s bill in Congress, which provides for tax cuts and reductions in government spending.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Jul 7, 2025

EURUSD weekly forecast: US budget deficit and trade wars in focus

Last week the euro reached new peaks but EURUSD corrected by week’s end, stabilising amid the US holiday and market readiness to react swiftly to changing conditions. This weekly EURUSD forecast analyses factors that could drive the pair to fresh 2025 highs.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

Market focus: Donald Trump signs measures set to push the US budget deficit to its limits. On 9 July maximum trade tariffs come into effect.
Current trend: The medium-term uptrend remains intact; short-term consolidation is near 1.1780.
EURUSD forecast for 7-11 July 2025: Growth target – retest of the 1.1836 high; support levels – 1.1680 and 1.1439.

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD fundamentals remain mixed and contradictory. The dollar strengthened after the US jobs report showed 147,000 new jobs created in June – above forecasts and May’s reading. Unemployment fell to 4.1 % despite expectations of a rise. These figures lowered the chance of a near-term Fed rate cut and briefly restored dollar demand as a relatively stable currency.

In the UK and eurozone, attention turns to central bank policy. The Bank of England signals readiness to cut rates in August amid fears of overheating and a sharp economic slowdown. The ECB remains more reserved: President Christine Lagarde stated that further steps depend on data and that current rates are near neutral. This gives EUR local stability while the dollar weakens overall.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Jul 8, 2025

Trump prepares tariff storm for Japan – what will happen to USDJPY

USDJPY reacts specifically to tariffs on goods from Japan; quotes may form a correction towards support around 145.20. Details – in our analysis for 8 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

Trump imposes a 25% tariff on goods from Japan
Investors seek refuge in USD
USDJPY forecast for 8 July 2025: 145.20

Fundamental analysis

US President Trump announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on goods from Japan from 1 August. The trade confrontation between the US and Japan does not end at this stage. Earlier, Trump spoke of 50% import tariffs, but gradually his fervour is cooling down, and he does not rule out the possibility of easing tariffs and extending their deadlines.

Attempts to support US manufacturers through higher import tariffs ultimately affect consumers, who will have to pay these tariffs out of their own pockets. Importers, including Japan, China, and the EU, may eventually increase prices for their goods to compensate for tariffs and gain their own profit.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Jul 9, 2025

GBPUSD in an uptrend despite global risks

The GBPUSD rate is strengthening but remains under pressure from global tensions and calls for increased defence spending. Current quote – 1.3593. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

The UK is working on an agreement with the US to cancel steel tariffs, fearing an increase up to 50%
An increase in steel tariffs could have a devastating impact on the British steel industry
GBPUSD forecast for 9 July 2025: 1.3770

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is recovering after three consecutive days of decline. The British pound came under pressure due to rising global tensions and mounting calls for increased defence spending, creating long-term budgetary uncertainty. Despite the current bearish correction, the GBPUSD currency pair continues to move within an uptrend.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that government debt could reach 270% of GDP by 2070, due to demographic changes and rising healthcare and pension costs.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Friday at 5:56 AM

Gold (XAUUSD) at a stabilization point: many risks, but no one is afraid

Gold (XAUUSD) price consolidates at 3,333 USD. Trump’s trade policy worries the market, but there is no panic. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

Gold (XAUUSD) price has changed little over the week
The market is focused on trade risks but is not yet ready to re-evaluate them
XAUUSD forecast for 11 July 2025: 3,345

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) price remains stable near 3,333 USD on Friday. Overall, the precious metal attempts to rise for the third day in a row. Market focus remains on demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions.

President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada starting 1 August and spoke about plans to introduce large-scale tariffs of 15-20% for most other trading partners. Previously, there were threats against Brazil and proposals to impose tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · Monday at 3:59 AM

EURUSD under pressure: Trump hits markets with new tariffs

The US tariffs on imports from the EU are weighing on the EURUSD rate, pushing it lower. The price currently stands at 1.1666. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

Trump’s trade initiative escalates global trade tensions
Markets await US inflation data due on Tuesday
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by around 50 basis points by the end of the year
EURUSD forecast for 14 July 2025: 1.1825

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to decline on Monday, consolidating below the key support level at 1.1685. The pair is under pressure from a stronger US dollar amid new statements from US President Donald Trump on tariff policy.

Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective from 1 August. This move adds to the already tense global trade environment. Nevertheless, investor reaction remains restrained – the market increasingly ignores such threats, as their actual impact on the US dollar has been limited.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · 2025-07-15T05:13:27-0400

USDJPY rises to 147.65: tariffs and data weigh on the yen

The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs
Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements
USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.

Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.

Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Vlad RF · 2025-07-16T05:40:37-0400

Rebound or failure? GBPUSD hangs in the balance

In anticipation of data from the UK and the US, GBPUSD quotes may reverse and head towards the 1.3500 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 16 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

UK Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 3.4%, projected at 3.4%
US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.2%
GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025: 1.3500

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025 takes into account that the pair remains in a correction phase and is currently near the support level of the ascending channel.

The UK Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers and helps assess consumer behaviour trends and potential stagnation in the economy. Generally, if the CPI exceeds expectations, it has a positive impact on the national currency.

The forecast for 16 July 2025 suggests the CPI for June 2025 may remain at 3.4%. Any increase would support the British pound.

The US PPI is expected to rise to 0.2%, up from 0.1% previously. However, the increase is modest, and the actual figure may differ significantly from the forecast.

Read this article on RoboForex website - GBPUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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