General EURUSD Chart Analysis

[Frano Grgić]

The price made a breakout on Wednesday after testing the $1.05825 resistance three times.

After strong move, if we calculate pip range it is 177 pips move, price stopped and made a retrace above $1.04000 on Friday which we can add to Friday exit where traders cash out after a strong move and get out from trades before the weekend.

We can expect price moving higher close to $1.05000 resistance level and from there look for bearish price action signals.

Now is the time to wait for the retrace to higher levels and from there look for a sell signal.

 

[Frano Grgić]

Just in two days the price returned and reached $1.04700.

On Friday we have a small retrace where traders have exited from trades and taken the profit from the strong move upwards.

With strong bullish candles and breaking some critical levels to the upside we can look for the price on higher levels.

The candle closed above previous candles body highs which is a good signal to look expect the price on the higher levels.

 

[Frano Grgić]

price reached higher levels like $1.06400 which was a high on the last bullish attempt.

After breaking above resistance levels the price returned down to $1.06736 and verified the level as a support.

We can see currency strength meter showing EUR much stronger than USD currency which is confirming the bulls strength.

And the price will likely test resistance and price around $1.08300 which is close to the monthly trendline.

$1.07825 is the first step and it is a base for bullish attempts to attack higher levels.

 

[c4t]

EURUSD seems basing out temporarily.Long term downtrend may resume soon

 

[c4t]

how the market will open up tomorow? continuing the reversal patterns or continuation lets see

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0760, 1.0830, 1.0900
Support Level : 1.0640, 1.0550, 1.0470

• The EUR/USD reached a fresh four-week high around 1.0765, but retreated some 30 pips in the last hour as the New York session wanes, courtesy of positive US data. It ended last week at 1.0730, bullish in the daily chart.
• On Friday, the US Commerce Department unveiled inflation figures for the country. The Fed’s favorite gauge, the Core PCE for April, increased by 4.9% YoY, aligned with forecasts but lower than the March reading. That easied investors’ worries regarding an aggressive US central bank, with some of its members, like St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, expecting rates to finish in the 3.25-3.50% range.
• Next week, the Eurozone macroeconomic docket will feature Headline Inflation for Germany and the Euro area. Both headline figures are expected to rise to new highs, but core EU inflation is foreseen to fall to 3.4%. Another event triggering EUR/USD traders’ reaction would be the EU Council Meeting.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0730, unchanged for the day with the bullish stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the upward slope and hold above 20 SMA, bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning north and heading towards longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0760, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0830.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stances. The RSI indicators hovering above the midlines and stabilized around 56, shows bullish strength. The Momentum indicator continued developing in positive territory, indicating upward potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0640 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0550.

 

[yusonthetrack]

Thank you for your analysis. I'd like to master trading as well as you.

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0800, 1.0860, 1.0930
Support Level : 1.0630, 1.0550, 1.0470

• The EUR/USD broke to the downside after trading for hours in a range between 1.0730-1.0700, dropping precipitously to 1.0650, and hitting its lowest level since May 25. It ended Wednesday at 1.0655, neutral to bearish in the daily chart.
• After a positive opening, equity prices in Wall Street reversed sharply following the release of US data. The better-than-expected figures keep the Federal Reserve on track for aggressive rate hikes, which is supportive of the dollar.
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose in May to 56.1 from 55.4 in April, above the 54.5 forecast. The unexpected increase in activity boosted the dollar and weakened the demand for Treasuries. The US 10-year yield jumped from 2.84% to 2.93%, the highest level since May 22 and the 30-year climbed to the weekly high of 3.08%.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0655, down for the day with theneutral to bearish stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the downward slope and struggled near 20 SMA, bearish in the short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning flat and continued developing below longer ones, suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0800, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0860.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the neutral stances. The RSI indicators hovering near the midlines and stabilized around 50, shows neutral strength. The Momentum indicator struggled near the midline, indicating directionless potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0630 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0550.

 

[Frano Grgić]

EURUSD seems basing out temporarily.Long term downtrend may resume soon

It could be, but we need to wait price to reach $1.08300 and see what happens. Before that it will be hardly to see moving down.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price reached $1.07825 resistance and made a retrace back down to $1.06736 where it bounced back up, but returned down and broke below $1.06736 support level.

Next week we could see a price close to $1.06736 because the price closed the week below previous week close price and this week open price.

$1.06736 is now a base for buyers which they will defend and it will be a base for future moves to the higher price.

We now have $1.06736 as a support that will decide if the price moves down or up.

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0800, 1.0860, 1.0930
Support Level : 1.0650, 1.0550, 1.0470

• The EUR/USD failed to recover the 1.0750 zone and pulled back during Friday’s American session toward the 1.0700 area. It is about to end at the same level it had a week ago after the US dollar recovered strength following NFP and the ISM Service PMI. It ended Friday at 1.0718, neutral to bullish in the daily chart.
• The employment report in the US came in modestly above expectations, but later the ISM Service PMI showed a larger-than-expected decline. Despite the numbers, US yields rose with the 10-year reaching 2.98%, the highest level since May 18. German yields are also higher, with the 10-year at 1.27%, level not seen since 2014, ahead of the European Central Bank meeting due next week.
• US stocks are falling on Friday, the Dow Jones by 1.03%, the NASDAQ by 2.57% and the S&P 500 by 2.58%. The deterioration in market sentiment is offering support to the greenback. The DXY is up 0.45%, trimming more than half of Thursday’s losses.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0718, down for the day with theneutral to bearish stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the downward slope and struggled near upside bearish trend line, bearish in the short term. However, the 20 SMA started turning north and heading towards longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0800, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0860.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the bullish stances. The RSI indicators hovering above the midlines and stabilized around 53, shows bullish strength. The Momentum indicator struggled above the midline, indicating upward potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0650 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0550.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The price moved higher and reached a $1.07825 supply zone which was too hard to break.

From there the price returned down and formed a strong bearish engulfing candle that closed the day below previous weekly false breakout downwards.

Next week we could see a price close to $1.05825 which will be a breakout confirmation.

The possible level for the price to reach is $1.05600, which is high on the previous reversal attempts after sell off so we can expect the same reaction and target.

 

[umuneke44]

eur usd is a very fine pair and my best pair i trade with, more pips more money...

yeah but you should be carefull too

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0510, 1.0640, 1.0760
Support Level : 1.0340, 1.0250, 1.0200

• The EUR/USD bounced from near the May low and jumped back above 1.0450. As Powell’s press conference ends, the pair is hovering around 1.0450, almost 60 pips above the level it had before the FOMC statement, still bearish in the daily chart.
• At the end of the June meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to raise its target interest range by 75 basis points, the biggest move since 1994. In the statement, the Fed mentioned that more rate hikes are coming and warned about the increasing risks of a recession.
• Fed Chair Powell mentioned he does not expect 75bp rake hikes to be common. He said the pace of rate hikes will depend on incoming data. Inflation developments warranted a bigger hike at the June meeting, Powell commented.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0450, up for the day with the bearish stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the downward slope and stabilized below all main SMAs, bearish in the short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning south and heading towards longer ones, suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0510, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0640.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the bearish stances. The RSI indicators hovering below the midlines and stabilized around 37, shows bearish strength. The Momentum indicator struggled below the midline, indicating bearish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0340 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0340.

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0600, 1.0680, 1.0760
Support Level : 1.0480, 1.0340, 1.0250

• EUR/USD advances above the 1.0500 level, and it is trading with gains more than 0.7% during the New York session. It surged to high 1.0600 area and settled near 1.0570, neutral in the daily chart.
• The shared currency is gaining traction as USD buyers book profits after the Federal Reserve’s 0.75% rate hike. Furthermore, worse-than-expected US economic data crossed the wires. US Home Sales for May dropped to their lowest level in a year, and Building Permits contracted by -7%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey index shrank by -3.3 in June from 5.5 estimations.
• The Bank of Italy President and ECB member Ignazio Visco said that he expects the ECB to hike rates in a gradual and sustained way after September. He added that normalization could continue to be gradual, which could mean 25 or 50 bps rate hikes.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.5750, up for the day with the neutral stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the downward slope and stabilized below all main SMAs, bearish in the short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA and 50 SMA still capped upside potentials, unable to stabilized above this level suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0600, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0680.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the neutral stances. The RSI indicators hovering near the midlines and stabilized around 49, shows neutral strength. The Momentum indicator struggled near the midline, indicating directionless potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0480 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0340.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The demand around $1.03920 was a strong area and the price could not break further down.

On Friday we had a small bearish candle that had a wick below $1.05087 support level, but the day closed at the demand zone around $1.05087.

The price has closed the Friday below previous day candles bodies which is the first step to move further down.

But, as the market now looks at the weekly and monthly time frame the $1.03920 is still the next week target.

 

[CDO Markets]

Resistance Level: 1.0600, 1.0680, 1.0760
Support Level : 1.0450, 1.0340, 1.0250

• The EUR/USD climbs for the second consecutive day, though struggled to get near the 1.0600 figure, as sellers dragged the major from daily highs around 1.0582 towards the 1.0530s area during the New York session, still bearish in the daily chart.
• Sentiment is positive, as global equities are rallying. As risk appetite increases, safe-haven assets like the US Dollar remain on the defensive. In the meantime, on Monday, the ECB President Lagarde affirmed that the central bank would lift rates in July and remained flexible about the size of the rate hike in September.
• Although Lagarde’s comments lifted the EUR/USD near the 1.0600 figure, buyers lacked the strength to push the major above it, and it fell. The interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed would likely favor the greenback, which is almost flat, as shown by the US Dollar Index.
• The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0535, up for the day with the bearish stance in daily chart. The pair still maintains the downward slope and stabilized below all main SMAs, bearish in the short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA and 50 SMA still capped upside potentials, unable to stabilized above this level suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0600, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.0680.
• Techinical readings in the daily chart support the bearish stances. The RSI indicators hovering bearish the midlines and stabilized around 45, shows bearish strength. The Momentum indicator struggled below the midline, indicating downward potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0450 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0340.

 

[CDO Markets]

Support: 1.0468-1.0405-1.0349
Resistance: 1.0582-1.0620-1.0675

EURUSD - 1,050 Recovered the Band…

After losing 1.0468 on the third trading day of the week, the pair recovered above the 1.050 band with the reaction buying. During Fed Chairman Powell's statements, the parity generally maintained its buying trend. Powell said that the pace of interest rate hikes will be determined by the economic outlook, and that the Fed's main focus is to return inflation to the 2% target. He also noted that the series of additional rate hikes is priced in, and that it is reasonable. From a technical point of view, 1.0582 band, the highest level seen yesterday before the 23.6% Fibonacci band of 1.0620 resistance zone, of the 1.149-1.034 decline in the parity can be viewed as the intermediate resistance zone. Below, the 1.0468 band will be followed as the first support zone

 

[CDO Markets]

Support: 1.0468-1.0405-1.0349
Resistance: 1.0582-1.0620-1.0675

Disappointing PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday revived concerns about a recession in Europe, while the German IFO business climate index, announced today, fell more than expected, indicating that the lines of concern in the German economy are growing. With the negative data coming from the Euro zone, the EURUSD parity is struggling to find demand in the last two trading days of the week. On the other hand, we can say that the decline of the European Central Bank's expectation of a total increase of 170 basis points until the end of the year to below 150 basis points caused the Euro to lose ground against the Dollar. Looking at the pair from a technical perspective, the 1.0468 band below, which is the lowest it has seen this week, can be viewed as the initial support zone. Above, 1.0582 and 23.6% Fibonacci band, 1.0620 band, can be followed as the first resistance zones.

 

[Frano Grgić]

The $1.05087 and $1.05825 range is holding the price.

In the middle of the week we have a price trying to break outside of the range area above resistance $1.05825 level, but the price returned inside quickly.

We have now indecision for the price which must be defined by the breakout on the upside or downside.

The current support $1.05087 is stronger than $1.05825 as a resistance so this could be a decision factor next week.