Forex News FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

Oil is searching for a bottom, shell and exxon await the outcome​

The oil market is increasingly shaped by the struggle between two opposing factors. On one hand, the temporary easing of restrictions on Iranian oil operations and the partial restoration of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing concerns about supply shortages. On the other hand, a full recovery of supply will take time, and global logistics are still far from normal.

As a result, oil prices and energy stocks are reacting not only to current supply volumes but also to market expectations. If tankers continue returning to regular routes, downward pressure on oil prices may intensify. However, new disruptions or a deterioration of the regional situation could quickly restore the risk premium.

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Key drivers of energy markets:

#BRENT — a barometer of the Persian Gulf situation. For Brent, the key factor is the speed of export recovery and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Improved logistics will put pressure on prices, while new disruptions could quickly support demand for the contract.
#WTI — impact of U.S. inventories. WTI is receiving mixed signals: the global situation suggests a potential increase in supply, but declining U.S. oil inventories support expectations of a tighter domestic balance.

Key drivers of oil company stocks:
#Shell — a bet on the recovery of global flows. For Shell, normalization of international oil and petroleum product supply chains is crucial. Improved logistics may reduce disruption risks, but falling oil prices could simultaneously limit investor interest in the stock.
#Exxon — balancing upstream and downstream. For Exxon, further declines in oil prices may weaken expectations for upstream revenues. At the same time, fuel demand in the U.S. and refining segment performance could partially support the company’s financial results.

The key question for the entire sector is whether the partial recovery in supply will prove sustainable. #BRENT remains most sensitive to news from the Persian Gulf, while #WTI depends more on U.S. inventory data. For #Shell, global logistics and refined product trade are critical, whereas #Exxon depends on the balance between oil prices, production, and U.S. fuel demand.

According to FreshForex analysts, in the coming weeks the market will focus less on statements and more on actual data: tanker traffic, export volumes, inventory trends, and the ability of oil companies to maintain financial performance amid lower oil prices. At the same time, the remaining unsold volumes of Iranian oil after sanctions relief at the end of June should not be overlooked, as they create a hidden risk of sudden supply increases and price declines. Even under a positive scenario, it is important to manage risk in advance and consider the possibility of sharp sentiment shifts.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for June 25, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4010.06–4061.76, TP1-3958.46, TP2-3766.86.​

Long-term trend: bearish. The largest volume concentration in the current contract is located within the 4310.00–4350.00 range. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.



Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest volume concentrations for the medium-term trend are located within the 4225.00–4245.00 and 3965.00–3985.00 ranges. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place within the latter range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

The favourable price area for selling from a margin perspective lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the June 24, 2026 low.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4010.06.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4061.76.

Intraday target: a renewal of the June 24, 2026 low at 3958.46.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 3766.86.



Trading idea: consider selling within the favourable price range if a reversal pattern develops.

Sell: 4010.06–4061.76, Take Profit 1: 3958.46, Take Profit 2: 3766.86.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 26, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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Sterling is ending the week in an environment where political uncertainty has once again become a currency-market factor. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, investors are awaiting the formation of a new government and assessing whether confidence among UK government bond holders can be preserved. For the pound, the change of cabinet matters less than the clarity of fiscal policy, which remains limited for now.

The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on June 17, although two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for an increase. The central bank noted that inflation had eased to 2.8% and that the labour market was gradually cooling, while energy prices remained volatile. This combination does not give the market confidence that policy will become more restrictive quickly and limits interest-rate support for sterling.

High inflation in the United States and resilient consumer spending continue to support expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy path, despite lower expectations of a July rate hike. The pound may receive short-term support when the US dollar weakens, but domestic fiscal concerns leave any recovery vulnerable. The baseline scenario allows for further weakness in GBP/USD until the market receives clearer signals on UK politics and the economy.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3185, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3110

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for June 29, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

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The ECB’s 25-basis-point rate increase has not provided unequivocal support for the euro. At the same time, the central bank warned that the energy shock is increasing inflation risks and lowered its 2026 euro area growth forecast to 0.8%. This creates a difficult environment for the single currency: restrictive policy is needed to preserve price stability, but weak activity and falling real incomes limit demand for European assets.

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The US dollar retains an advantage as markets expect the Federal Reserve to avoid easing policy too quickly. In June, the Committee kept the target range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing resilient economic activity and inflation above target. Markets are awaiting US labour market data and remarks at the ECB forum. A strong employment report could reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

The ECB’s rate increase appears to be more of a response to inflation risks than a signal of accelerating growth in the euro area. As long as uncertainty around energy prices and growth persists, while the US dollar remains supported by Federal Reserve expectations, the baseline scenario for EUR/USD points to further downside. The selling idea is consistent with the divergence in economic resilience and the current demand for the US dollar.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1390, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1330

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for June 30, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 58800, SL 60000, TP 56000.

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Bitcoin is developing exactly in line with the previously discussed scenario. The leading cryptocurrency remains under significant selling pressure and has been unable to improve its position. At best, buyers have managed to keep the price relatively stable within a narrow range.

However, this has merely resulted in the formation of a correction, which is likely wave 4 within the developing bearish impulse. If this interpretation is correct, the price is expected to break lower in the near term, forming the final wave 5 of the same bearish impulse, which itself is part of wave (c) of the zigzag.

At that point, the bearish phase may finally come to an end, allowing the market to begin moving higher. Chasing the final downward leg is rather risky, as the remaining downside potential appears limited while the eventual reversal could be sharp. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for signs of a new uptrend before entering long positions. Nevertheless, those willing to take on additional risk may consider opening a small short position.

Investment idea: SELL 58800, SL 60000, TP 56000.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 03 July 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4065.00, SL 4095.00, TP 3975.00

Gold begins the week near $4,060 per ounce, but rising expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy are limiting its upside. Inflation concerns and higher oil prices have led the market to reassess the probability of a rate hike, while the US dollar remains supported. This combination is unfavourable for a non-yielding asset such as gold.
Military risks in the Persian Gulf may support demand for defensive assets, but they have not yet outweighed the effect of higher US funding costs. Labour market data will be an important test for interest rate expectations. As long as this scenario remains intact, a downside move in XAUUSD appears more justified.

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Trading idea: SELL 4065.00, SL 4095.00, TP 3975.00

#SP500: SELL 7440, SL 7500, TP 7260

The US stock market enters the week after the S&P 500 declined to 7,354 points and semiconductor shares came under pressure. Investors are assessing when investment in AI infrastructure will begin to translate into stronger earnings. This makes the index more sensitive to revisions in corporate forecasts and weakens support from the largest technology companies.
The interest rate factor also remains important. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged while noting elevated inflation, and the market is awaiting labour market data. The rebound in futures does not remove the index’s vulnerability. Without convincing signals on earnings and inflation, the baseline scenario for #SP500 remains to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 7440, SL 7500, TP 7260

#BRENT: BUY 72.60, SL 70.60, TP 78.60

Brent starts the week near $72.6 per barrel, with uncertainty over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran have again slowed shipping activity. The market therefore remains uncertain whether exports from the Persian Gulf can quickly return to normal volumes, which supports the risk premium.
A temporary agreement to halt attacks and isolated cargo shipments may limit further gains. However, tanker queues, damaged infrastructure and production disruptions continue to create a risk of tighter supply. Under these conditions, the weekly outlook for #BRENT remains tilted to the upside.

Trading idea: BUY 72.60, SL 70.60, TP 78.60

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 1, 2026 GBPUSD​

Events to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

16:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

16:00 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

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Sterling enters July after revised UK economic data failed to ease concerns about the resilience of domestic demand. GDP expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter, but household disposable income declined, while April figures pointed to weaker momentum at the start of the second quarter. This may limit the economy’s ability to absorb high borrowing costs for an extended period.

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The Bank of England kept its rate unchanged at 3.75% in June. However, calmer inflation and lower household inflation expectations reduce the need for further policy tightening in the near term. At the same time, changes in government have added uncertainty around fiscal policy. Markets will assess whether the new administration can balance stimulus plans with confidence in public finances.

The market backdrop remains challenging for GBPUSD. Higher US Treasury yields and stronger Federal Reserve rate expectations increase the appeal of the US dollar. Sterling could receive support from signs of stronger consumer spending or renewed services inflation, but recent data have not yet provided that confirmation. The base case therefore favours the US dollar and allows for further downside in the pair if the current news flow persists.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3160

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Hormuz shakes global markets again

The U.S.–Iran conflict remains in a phase of fragile de-escalation: the ceasefire formally holds, but negotiations are taking place indirectly through mediators in Qatar. The sides are trying to agree on further terms regarding sanctions, the nuclear program, and the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the situation remains unstable: isolated incidents in the region and disagreements over navigation rules can quickly bring the military risk premium back into the market. Transit through the strait is gradually recovering, but its operation is still uneven and depends on the further course of negotiations.

In focus for traders:

• EURUSD. A new escalation of the conflict may support the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on EURUSD. However, the pair’s reaction will depend not only on geopolitics: rising oil prices can increase inflation risks in the U.S. and expectations of tighter Fed policy, further supporting the dollar. A sustained easing of tensions, weaker oil prices, and reduced inflation risks in the U.S., on the contrary, may support the euro against the dollar.
• #Brent. More predictable and safer shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may reduce the geopolitical premium in #Brent prices. Any attacks on vessels, export disruptions, or a breakdown in negotiations can quickly restore the risk premium and support prices.
• #WTI. WTI crude will react to the Middle East conflict through changes in the global supply-demand balance, but U.S. oil inventories, activity of American producers, and domestic demand are also important. A decline in geopolitical risks may put pressure on prices, but a reduction in U.S. oil inventories can temporarily limit this decline. Disruptions in global supplies will support WTI through an overall market deficit.
• XAUUSD. Gold traditionally gains support amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets. However, under current conditions this effect may be limited: rising oil prices increase inflation concerns, support U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of tighter Fed policy, which can pressure XAUUSD via a stronger dollar. Progress toward a sustainable agreement between the U.S. and Iran may reduce interest in gold, especially alongside falling yields and a weaker dollar.

The current conflict is developing along a scenario of fragile de-escalation rather than a full political settlement. Negotiations create conditions for the recovery of oil supplies but do not eliminate the key contradictions between the U.S. and Iran. Therefore, financial markets will remain sensitive to any statements by the parties, news about the Strait of Hormuz, and the progress of nuclear talks.

FreshForex analysts recommend that traders closely monitor developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict, as new statements and incidents may trigger sharp market movements. Elevated volatility may persist in EURUSD, #Brent, #WTI, and XAUUSD. Use changes in the global political backdrop to find trading opportunities and be sure to account for increased risks.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for July 02, 2026 XAUUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Nonfarm Payrolls​

• Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volume in the current contract is located between 4320.00 and 4370.00. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place below this range, indicating the strength of sellers.

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• Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of volume for the medium-term trend is located between 4020.00 and 4040.00. Investment activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place above this range, confirming the strength of buyers.

• The favourable buying area, based on margin requirements, is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of July 1, 2026.

• The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 4067.79.

• The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 4016.89.

• Intraday target: a retest of the July 1, 2026 high at 4118.79.

• Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the Golden Weekly Control Zone at 4265.79.

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• Trading idea: consider buying from the favourable price range once a reversal pattern is formed.

• Buy: 4016.89–4067.79, Take Profit 1: 4118.79, Take Profit 2: 4265.79.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 3, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

16:45 EET. USD — Composite PMI

USDJPY:

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USDJPY is facing a changing short-term balance after comments from Tokyo. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that authorities were ready to respond to currency moves at any time if necessary and remained in contact with their US counterparts. The remarks followed a sharp strengthening of the yen, which had earlier reached a multi-year low during the week. This increases the relevance of the risk of official action.

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At the same time, the June US employment report weakened the case for an early Federal Reserve rate hike. Employment increased by only 57,000 against expectations of 110,000, while short-term US Treasury yields declined. Reduced interest rate support for the US dollar is important for a pair where the rate differential has been a key source of demand for the US currency. A member of Japan’s government advisory panel also called on the Bank of Japan to continue gradually raising rates.

The wide rate differential still limits the potential for sustained yen strength, and Japanese authorities have not confirmed any intervention. However, the combination of weaker US labour market data and Tokyo’s official warning changes the balance of risks for USDJPY. Under the base-case scenario, further downside remains the preferred outcome while US Treasury yields do not return to growth.

Trading idea: SELL 161.00, SL 161.35, TP 159.95

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 6, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:​

June data from the euro area provide a mixed but broadly supportive backdrop for the euro. The services activity index rose to 49.4 from 47.7 in May, while the composite indicator returned to growth. Inflation slowed to 2.8%, but the ECB raised interest rates in June and still has room to maintain a cautious policy stance. The improvement in business activity supports the single currency, although the weakness in the services sector has not fully disappeared.

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The main shift for EURUSD has come from a reassessment of the US economy. Employment growth in June was weaker than expected, while previous months were revised lower. This reduced the perceived likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. The US dollar came under pressure, and the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes will test whether the market maintains this revised outlook.

Slower euro-area inflation limits the euro’s upside potential. However, less confident Federal Reserve expectations, the ECB’s June rate increase, and stronger composite business activity create a favourable fundamental balance for the pair. Unless new US data challenge the view of a cooling labour market, the outlook remains tilted towards further EURUSD strength.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1435, SL 1.1405, TP 1.1525

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 10 July 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4175.00, SL 4140.00, TP 4280.00

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Gold begins the week near a two-week high after softer US employment data. The market has reduced expectations of a further Federal Reserve rate hike, which has weakened the US dollar and eased pressure from US Treasury yields.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting will test this view. Lower energy prices may ease inflation concerns and, in turn, preserve a favourable backdrop for the metal. If expectations of a policy pause remain unchanged, XAUUSD is likely to retain support.

Trading idea: BUY 4175.00, SL 4140.00, TP 4280.00

#SP500: BUY 7500, SL 7450, TP 7650

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Softer employment data has reduced the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and supported US equities at the start of the week. This is important for #SP500 through borrowing costs and expectations for future earnings, particularly in the technology sector.

The next focus will be the Federal Reserve minutes and the start of corporate earnings season. Lower oil prices may reduce inflation pressure, although elevated market valuations still require strong earnings results. If the current backdrop holds, the base case allows for further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7500, SL 7450, TP 7650

#BRENT: SELL 71.90, SL 73.00, TP 68.60

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Brent begins the week below $72 per barrel after OPEC+ decided to raise its production targets from August. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually recovering, prompting the market to factor in an increase in available supply.

Geopolitical uncertainty may still trigger volatility, but the pace of export normalisation and US inventory data due on Wednesday will be more important. For now, rising supply is outpacing signs of stronger demand, leaving #BRENT biased to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 71.90, SL 73.00, TP 68.60

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