Forex News FreshForex Market Insights: Fundamental Analysis, Margin Analysis & Forex News

[FreshForexTeam]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | September 18, 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00​

No swaps on majors for a month! Learn more

The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530​

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05​

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for September 15, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

A month without swaps on majors! ​

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

​

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.

​

Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

AI Boom Stumbles: Chipmakers Lose Nearly 6%​

It took just one trading session for the semiconductor sector to lose nearly 6% of its value. On September 14, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9%, while #NVIDIA shares dropped around 3.4% and #Micron fell more than 5%. The pressure spread across the broader technology market as well, with the Nasdaq ending the day lower.

The main trigger came from warnings issued by AI company executives. Following concerns about the risks of technology developing too quickly, investors seriously began asking for the first time in a while: what will happen to chipmakers if massive spending on artificial intelligence starts to slow down?

A month without swaps on major pairs! Learn more

​

What spooked investors:​

1. The market has started reassessing future demand. #NVIDIA and #Micron have been among the biggest beneficiaries of data center construction and growing demand for computing power. Even a hint of a potential slowdown in AI investment is prompting investors to take a more cautious view of future processor and memory sales.
2. High interest rates are adding pressure. The yield on 10-year US government bonds briefly exceeded 5%, while expectations of another Fed rate hike remain elevated. The more expensive money becomes, the harder it is for technology stocks to justify high valuations.
3. Investors are taking profits after a strong rally. The semiconductor sector remains one of the year's top performers and, even after the sell-off, is still up around 57% since January. Against this backdrop, the emergence of a new risk provided a convenient reason to close some profitable positions.

The problem for the market is that current high valuations of technology companies already largely assume that AI investment will continue growing rapidly. As companies consistently increased spending on equipment and data centers, this scenario worked in favor of chipmakers. Now, the market has to consider the opposite possibility as well.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about the end of the AI boom. Demand for computing power remains high, and a single day of selling does not change the long-term trend. However, the nearly 6% decline showed just how sensitive the sector has become to any doubts about the future pace of artificial intelligence spending.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as pressure on chipmakers persists, it will be harder for #NQ100 to reach new highs. If US Treasury yields remain around 5% and concerns about a slowdown in AI investment intensify, pressure on the technology index could continue.

Our trading platform offers 250+ instruments, including CFDs on stocks, indices, and crypto assets. Follow the trends and trade the markets!

Trade the decline​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 16, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

​

The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 17, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

A month without swaps on majors!

​

Bitcoin continues to remain under pressure from which it is trying to break out. This attempt is obviously the reason for the observed weak growth of the asset, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, it has a corrective nature.

In this case, further on, this growth will quickly be replaced by another sharp downward price movement, which will lead to the completion of the development of the assumed corrective wave (iv).

There is no need to rush to make any trading decisions in this situation. However, since the downside potential within the forming correction remains insignificant, it is recommended to start looking for possible entry points for buying.

At the moment, the most safe level for this decision is 79500.

Investment idea: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

The Fed Raised Rates, Yet Gold Is Still Rising!​

The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce, even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before.

At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently — and that is the key to understanding the current move.

A month without swaps on major pairs! Learn more

​

Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates?

• 1. The rate hike had already been priced in. The Fed’s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold.
• 2. Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next. The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down.
• 3. The oil rally has paused. Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening.
• 4. Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge. If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400–4,500.

FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage of up to 1:1000.

Invest in Gold​

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

A month without swaps on majors!

​

The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 21, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

​

The euro begins the session without clear support after the ECB previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The decision itself has already been largely priced in, and the regulator's recent comments indicate caution regarding further tightening, primarily due to high energy costs. For EUR/USD, this reduces the strength of the local factor in favor of the single currency.

The dollar retains stronger short-term momentum. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate range to 3.75–4.00%, and most officials expect at least one more hike by year-end. Additional support for the US currency comes from fresh statements indicating that inflation remains too high, so the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening.

The interest rate differential still favors the US, while for the eurozone, expensive energy simultaneously poses inflationary and economic risks. Despite the previous sessions' decline in EUR/USD, the dollar factor does not appear fully exhausted. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a moderate continuation of the pair's decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1485, SL 1.1515, TP 1.1410