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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 21, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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Preparation of new security measures in France once again brings political risk to the forefront for the euro. Authorities intend to strengthen order maintenance ahead of further protests, while budget issues remain unresolved. For investors, this is a reason to be more cautious with European assets: tension complicates reform implementation and limits capital inflow into the single currency.

German statistics do not yet provide a sufficiently strong counterbalance. The October survey showed an improvement in the assessment of the current situation, but a deterioration in expectations, meaning economic recovery remains slow. Today, speeches by ECB representatives are important: a tougher stance on inflation could support the euro, but it does not eliminate French risks on its own.

The decline in US bond yields dampens demand for the dollar and limits the scale of a potential pair decline. At the same time, the expected Fed pause does not yet mean a rejection of further rate hikes. As long as French tensions persist, their influence allows for a moderate EURUSD decline even with weak dollar momentum; easing the crisis would change this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1250, TP 1.1175

 

[FreshForexTeam]

The French crisis hit the euro and stock indices​

Unrest in France has become a problem for investors as well. Damaged stores, business restrictions, and political uncertainty have added reasons to sell European stocks. On October 19, the French CAC 40 lost 1,11%, while the German DAX — 1,18%.

France is preparing for a new wave of protests. Authorities announced increased security ahead of demonstrations on October 24 following unrest that affected Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and other cities. The curfew helped restore calm, but the threat of further business disruptions remains.

On the markets, tension coexists with recovery attempts. #CAC40 is trading around 7,850.0 points, #DAX30 at 25,416.3 points, EURUSD at 1.1223. Buyers have recovered part of the losses, but French risks continue to limit interest in European assets.

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Businesses will have to pay for the consequences

Damage to stores, forced closures, and recovery costs have already caused losses for companies. New protests could prolong this period: even operating retail outlets lose customers if people avoid city centers.

For the French economy with weak growth, this is an additional burden. Uncertainty can cause companies to delay investments and hiring, while the government will have to negotiate budget decisions amid public discontent.

The situation is also unfavorable for the euro. Political tension in one of the largest economies in the eurozone hinders confident capital inflow. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar supports EURUSD, and expectations of ECB decisions remain significant. Therefore, the French crisis is restraining the pair's recovery, but does not rule out short-term rallies.

Why this matters for #DAX30

France is a significant market for German manufacturers. A reduction in orders and consumer spending could affect suppliers from Germany. Moreover, political tension could reduce interest in European stocks as a whole.

However, the German market is supported by corporate earnings and external demand. A weaker euro also helps exporters. Therefore, #DAX30 may recover faster than the French index, even if the situation in France remains difficult.

Where sellers maintain an advantage

According to FreshForex analysts, the French crisis will continue to restrain the recovery of #CAC40 and the euro. For #DAX30, the main risk remains the spread of cautious sentiment to the European market.

As long as #CAC40 remains below 7 870–7 900, a retest of 7 800 with a possible further decline to 7 750. For EURUSD, failed attempts to hold above 1,1240–1,1260 will maintain the probability of a return to 1,1200, and then — 1,1150.

For #DAX30, the nearest level is — 25 400. A move below it will increase the likelihood of a pullback to 25 300–25 200. Holding above 25 400, on the contrary, will allow buyers to continue the recovery to 25 500.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Analysis of margin levels for October 22, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4129.72-4181.42, TP1-4078.12, TP2-3915.72.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4133.00–4183.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating weakness among buyers.

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Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4155.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, indicating strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4129.72.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4181.42.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 14.10.2026–4078.12.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3915.72.

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Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4129.72-4181.42, Take Profit 1–4078.12, Take Profit 2–3915.72.

 

[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 23, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

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Accelerating inflation in Japan strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The September core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year after 1.7% in August. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4% from 1.9%. This supports the yen through expectations of higher cost of money, although an immediate decision by the regulator is not predetermined.

At the same time, concerns over artificial intelligence spending have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Purchases of Treasury bonds lowered US yields, weakening one of the main arguments for the dollar against the yen. For USDJPY, the key combination is two factors: declining dollar investment yields and more compelling grounds for further Japanese policy tightening.

Against a decline in the pair are the persistent interest rate differential and the risk of renewed US yield growth due to expensive oil. At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan may take a pause, so the inflation report does not guarantee continued yen strengthening. With sustained demand for safe-haven assets, however, its fundamental advantages still allow for further USDJPY downside.

Trading idea: SELL 156.90, SL 157.25, TP 156.20