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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 9, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the week with support from the Bank of England's decision: the regulator raised the interest rate to 4%, and all nine committee members voted for tightening. One member had proposed a larger step. However, the regulator currently sees few signs that rising energy costs have translated into broader price and wage growth. The drop in oil prices amid Iran negotiations weakens the argument for an imminent further rate hike.

The US report provides the market with a fresh reason to reassess rate expectations. Average hourly earnings in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, and job growth significantly exceeded expectations. This combination strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike in December. For the pound, this limits support from the UK decision, especially since the market has already reacted to it last week.

The pound may retain some of the morning recovery if improved sentiment in equity markets continues and demand for the dollar weakens. A sharper decline in energy prices could also support British assets through expectations of reduced pressure on household incomes. As long as the advantage remains with the dollar, the trade idea suggests a decline in GBPUSD.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3310

 

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Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | November 13, 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

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Gold rose at the start of the week as oil declined amid more restrained US statements regarding Iran. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and may ease pressure from high yields on the metal. However, October US employment growth of 165k strengthened expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

US consumer price data will be released on Tuesday, and producer price data on Friday. Moderate price growth could help gold hold onto part of Monday's gains and continue its recovery if bond yields fall. An acceleration in core inflation could revive demand for the dollar and derail this scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

#SP500: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

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The S&P 500 lost 2.7% last week, although tech stocks partially recovered on Friday. On Thursday, Applied Materials' results and outlook will help determine whether chipmakers' demand for equipment remains strong. A weak forecast could intensify doubts that AI infrastructure investments will yield the expected profits.

Actual results and estimates for companies yet to report indicate that S&P 500 earnings grew 31.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. This provides support for equities. However, strong US employment supports rate hike expectations, and expensive borrowing limits recovery potential. While the market awaits inflation data and new corporate forecasts, the risk of further declines remains higher.

Trading idea: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

#BRENT: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16

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Oil starts the week lower following Donald Trump's statement that new strikes on Iran are unlikely as negotiations progress. For the market, this reduces the risk of new export disruptions. According to JPMorgan, global supply already exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, increasing downward pressure on prices as supply threat fears subside.

On Thursday, the IEA's World Oil Market Outlook and US inventory data will be released. Rising inventories would strengthen the downside scenario, while a significant drawdown could slow it. After last week's sharp drop, some de-escalation expectations are already priced in. New disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring back the risk premium.

Trading idea: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16