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Fundamentals Update

Post-FOMC and interest rate Analysis​

Report Summary

• The FOMC raised its target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points today. The move was widely expected by financial markets and economists. The Committee has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.
• The post-meeting statement was little changed from the previous statement released in June. The Committee characterised the ongoing expansion in economic activity as “moderate,” a small upgrade from “modest” in the June statement. The Committee continued to describe unemployment as low and inflation as elevated.
• This meeting did not include an update to the Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the dot plot. The median dot in the June projections was for a federal funds rate of 5.625% at year-end, which implies one more rate hike between now and the end of 2023.
• In his press conference, Chair Powell stated that it was “possible” the Committee could hike again at its September meeting, but he quickly followed that statement by noting that it was also “possible” the FOMC would be on hold come the next meeting. Data dependency was a key theme that emerged during his post-meeting presser.
• Our base case remains that today’s rate hike will be the FOMC’s last of this tightening cycle. That said, we would not be shocked if the FOMC squeezed in one more rate hike between now and the end of the year. Regardless, quantitative tightening should continue for the foreseeable future.

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