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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 9, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the week with support from the Bank of England's decision: the regulator raised the interest rate to 4%, and all nine committee members voted for tightening. One member had proposed a larger step. However, the regulator currently sees few signs that rising energy costs have translated into broader price and wage growth. The drop in oil prices amid Iran negotiations weakens the argument for an imminent further rate hike.

The US report provides the market with a fresh reason to reassess rate expectations. Average hourly earnings in the US rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, and job growth significantly exceeded expectations. This combination strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike in December. For the pound, this limits support from the UK decision, especially since the market has already reacted to it last week.

The pound may retain some of the morning recovery if improved sentiment in equity markets continues and demand for the dollar weakens. A sharper decline in energy prices could also support British assets through expectations of reduced pressure on household incomes. As long as the advantage remains with the dollar, the trade idea suggests a decline in GBPUSD.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3310

 

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Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | November 13, 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

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Gold rose at the start of the week as oil declined amid more restrained US statements regarding Iran. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns and may ease pressure from high yields on the metal. However, October US employment growth of 165k strengthened expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

US consumer price data will be released on Tuesday, and producer price data on Friday. Moderate price growth could help gold hold onto part of Monday's gains and continue its recovery if bond yields fall. An acceleration in core inflation could revive demand for the dollar and derail this scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 4129.25, SL 4090.25, TP 4211.25

#SP500: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

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The S&P 500 lost 2.7% last week, although tech stocks partially recovered on Friday. On Thursday, Applied Materials' results and outlook will help determine whether chipmakers' demand for equipment remains strong. A weak forecast could intensify doubts that AI infrastructure investments will yield the expected profits.

Actual results and estimates for companies yet to report indicate that S&P 500 earnings grew 31.4% year-on-year in the third quarter. This provides support for equities. However, strong US employment supports rate hike expectations, and expensive borrowing limits recovery potential. While the market awaits inflation data and new corporate forecasts, the risk of further declines remains higher.

Trading idea: SELL 7426, SL 7516, TP 7219

#BRENT: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16

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Oil starts the week lower following Donald Trump's statement that new strikes on Iran are unlikely as negotiations progress. For the market, this reduces the risk of new export disruptions. According to JPMorgan, global supply already exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, increasing downward pressure on prices as supply threat fears subside.

On Thursday, the IEA's World Oil Market Outlook and US inventory data will be released. Rising inventories would strengthen the downside scenario, while a significant drawdown could slow it. After last week's sharp drop, some de-escalation expectations are already priced in. New disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring back the risk premium.

Trading idea: SELL 97.16, SL 99.66, TP 92.16

 

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Analysis of margin levels for November 10, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4047.15-4097.65, TP1-4148.05, TP2-4273.25.

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Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00–4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating seller strength.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4113.00-4128.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable prices for buying from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the maximum of 09.11.2026.

Quote for the upper boundary of zone 1/4 – 4097.65.

Quote for the upper boundary of zone 1/2 – 4047.15.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09.11.2026 – 4148.05.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the Support and Resistance Zone (SRZ) – 4273.25.

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Trading recommendations: buy from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4047.15–4097.65, Take Profit 1 – 4148.05, Take Profit 2 – 4273.25.

 

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Brent at $90, WTI below $85. Where could the oil decline stop?​

On November 10, #BRENT fell to $90.42, and #WTI to $84.68 per barrel. In the previous session, Brent futures lost 5.85%, and WTI lost 4.38%. A new wave of selling began after Donald Trump stated that strikes on Iran are unlikely as long as negotiations are progressing. After meeting with the Prime Minister of Qatar on November 9, the US President confirmed that he currently sees no need to resume strikes.

All four targets of our forecast from November 3 were met last week. #BRENT passed $103 and $100, and #WTI passed $95 and $94. Since then, both benchmarks have lost an additional $9+ per barrel.

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Why oil continued to fall

Last week, initial reports of Iran's contacts with Qatari mediators eased concerns about supply disruptions. Now Washington has publicly signaled its readiness to refrain from new strikes. The lower the probability of escalation, the less buyers are willing to pay a premium for the risk of export interruptions.

An additional signal came from Iraq. The country's Foreign Minister announced an agreement with the US, which provides for transporting Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz via a route along the coast of Oman. If tankers can regularly use this route, part of the supply will become more predictable.

What could bring buyers back

Trump stated that the US will maintain the maritime blockade of Iran. Meanwhile, reports continue to emerge from the Strait of Hormuz area regarding attacks on vessels. It is now important for the market whether tankers can pass through the strait regularly. New disruptions could quickly return part of the risk premium to the price.

According to analysts FreshForex, the decline may continue if negotiations with Iran progress and flights of Iraqi tankers confirm that the agreement with the US is working. Then buyers will have fewer reasons to pay a premium for the risk of supply disruptions. Under such a scenario, by the end of the week, #BRENT could drop to the $87–88 per barrel range, and #WTI to $82–83.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 11, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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For the euro, the main counterweight to the strong US dollar remains the ECB's readiness to curb inflation. On Tuesday, Joachim Nagel stated there were solid grounds for raising rates in December. However, Philip Lane linked further decisions to the pass-through of energy costs into wages and other prices. Such signals support the euro but do not imply a pre-agreed acceleration of tightening.

American data provided a clearer signal: consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October against an expected 0.3%. Christopher Waller also advocated for an FRS rate hike in December. The combination of data and statements strengthened demand for the dollar as investors revised their expectations for borrowing costs in the US. New reasons are now needed to weaken this argument.

Part of the US advantage is already reflected in yesterday's pair decline, so extrapolating that magnitude onto Wednesday would be premature. Lower energy costs would support European business, and stronger ECB signals could help the euro recover. While the market revises US rates upward, the base scenario for EURUSD allows for further moderate declines.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1165, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1120

 

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for November 12, 2026 BTCUSD

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BTCUSD: BUY 74000, SL 72000, TP 95000.

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Nothing significant or interesting has happened with Bitcoin yet. The asset continues to remain under pressure but is trying not to drop even lower.

For this reason, the scenario previously considered remains relevant. It is expected that the corrective decline took the form of a triple zigzag and has completed.

Therefore, at the moment, preparation for a strong impulsive rally is underway.

Thus, it makes sense to consider buying at current market levels with a potential upward target in the 95000 area.

Investment idea: BUY 74000, SL 72000, TP 95000.

 

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The dollar approached 160 yen. What could stop the USDJPY rally​

By the morning of November 12, the dollar had closely approached the 160 yen mark, rising to approximately 159.93 — a high not seen in over two months. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura described the recent currency movements as too rapid and recalled the yen purchases made in summer, one of which Tokyo carried out jointly with Washington. Following his comments, the dollar retreated to the session low, then recovered some losses and traded around 159.70. Buyers continue to be supported by expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.

In August, we identified the 160 level as a benchmark to assess how long the effect of the summer intervention would last. In the first sessions after publication, USDJPY remained below 160, but by the end of August it crossed this level again, reaching 160.39 on September 2. Now the market is testing this level again following US inflation data coming in above forecasts.

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Why Tokyo is speaking about the exchange rate again

At the end of July and beginning of August, Japan's Ministry of Finance spent approximately 15.4 trillion yen buying yen. At that time, USDJPY retreated from its July high of 163.99 and, at the peak of the yen's strengthening, fell to 155.20. This episode explains why even Mimura's warning caused dollar buyers to step back temporarily.

Japanese authorities also have an internal reason to monitor the exchange rate. According to the Bank of Japan, import prices converted into yen rose by 24.8% year-on-year in October. The weaker the yen, the more expensive overseas purchases become for Japanese companies, making it harder for them to contain rising wholesale prices.

Why the dollar held near 160

US consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October against a forecast of 0.3%. After the release, traders became more confident about a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. As long as US assets offer higher yields, the interest rate differential supports demand for the dollar against the yen. Although the summer intervention sharply reversed the pair's trend, by the end of August the dollar's yield advantage helped it return to 160.

According to analysts FreshForex, in the next few sessions USDJPY may break through the 160 mark and test 160.40, the area of the September 2 high. Such a scenario is supported by expectations of a Fed rate hike and the dollar's rapid recovery after Mimura's comments. Near 160, prepare for sharp exchange rate swings — even a new warning from Tokyo could quickly reverse the pair.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 13, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

USDJPY:

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Japanese Finance Minister Satoki Katayama described recent currency movements as one-sided and rapid today, stating that Tokyo will continue close coordination with the US Treasury. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released yesterday confirmed that the US Treasury participated in yen purchases during the summer. This increases the significance of the warning for the market and limits demand for the dollar against the yen.

On the monetary policy front, arguments favoring the dollar remain stronger so far. Bank of Japan Board Member Toichiro Asada warned against a premature rate hike due to risks to economic growth. In the US, conversely, John Williams allowed for further tightening, and rising short-term yields maintain the attractiveness of dollar assets for investors utilizing interest rate differentials.

A strong US producer price report could extend USDJPY gains if US yields hold at elevated levels. A weak reading could trigger the opposite move. Demand for the yen can also increase rapidly amid deteriorating stock market sentiment or actual currency purchases by authorities.

Trading idea: BUY 159.95, SL 159.75, TP 160.40