nicetpad2
New Member
Notice #1: We intend the contents of this thread to be detrimental to the "commercial interests" of the crooks running the currency market.
Notice #2: Read Post #1 completely and follow all instructions completely, and be serious about it or lose your posting privilege here.
Dear Gals and Guys, Fellow Retail Traders All,
"PVSRA" stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis. Now, with it's own thread, PVSRA is off to a New Beginning. Post #1 is the introduction to the thread and will contain the links to important content. It will undergo changes over time. Keep yourselves up-to-date. Refer back to Post #1 regularly.
This is a New Beginning, but not just for PVSRA. It is for all of you,....as it always has been for all of you. It is your thread. Here I shall be, as I have always been, just the caretaker of the body of work that follows. And, you have my pledge, that I have no commercial intentions and that everything here will be freely offered and shared in the spirit of retail traders helping retail traders, so that we may all experience growing success and God's Blessings for helping others.
This thread is the new text book for PVSRA. A good text book has clear text and illustrations. Please do this new text book proud and have the caring to make your posts well explained and very legible. Some will read these posts many months or even years from now. Will your post make sense to them then? The posting etiquette here is what best serves this new text book. Only post charts using our template(s), and if you use the MT4 "Quick Order" panel located in the upper left of the chart, please turn it off for posted pictures! Please understand our overall objective and be supportive of it. By doing so, you will help further the body of work being developed here, and you will have the thanks of the many others that are helping and being helped.
For clean postings of pictures of your chart, please follow these instructions:
1. Create Desktop file with some name like "Screenshots Jun 2015".
2. Click on "File" in MT4 banner.
3. Click on "Save as Picture".
4. Check "Active chart (as is).
5. Uncheck rectangle about MQL5.
6. Click ok.
7. Save to the Desktop file you created, from which you can retrieve for attaching to FF posts.
This will save a picture of just your chart, without all the distracting garbage that surrounds it! If any are not doing this, please start doing it for the sake of this thread's objective to be the best teaching text book ever!
Yours Truly,
-tah
Introduction to PVSRA
So, let us begin with an overview of PVSRA. In time, more will be transcribed here, but let this suffice for now. I would like to break this up and say something brief about each part. Okay?
Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period. But price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. The MMs are also "SM", and they tend to do the other SMs "one better"! This means that after the MMs fill the SM/DM orders, they might move price a bit further in an attempt to stop out some of those SM executed orders and sucker in more DM; both giving liquidity for the MMs to add to their own SM side position. Yes, the MMs are bastards. But the point is that could leave price not "nicely" above or below a SR anymore, yet more consolidation can occur.
Volume - Increases in activity denote increase in interest. But, is it long or short interest? Where is price in the bigger picture when this is happening? Is it at relative highs, or lows in the overall price action? And if a high volume bar is for a candle which you can examine by going to lower TF charts, you might see where in the spread of that candle the most volume occurred, high or low! Using volume is about taking note of relative increases in volume and what price is doing at the same time. Are the better volumes favoring the lower or the higher prices, as the MMs waffle price up and down? And do the volumes get particularly notable when the MMs take price above or below key SR?
S&R - Read all about S&R at "Baby Pips.com". What I want you to realize here is that the whole, half and quarter numbered price levels (hereinafter referred to as "Levels") are the most important SR of all in this market! Not because price stops, pauses, proceeds or reverses there, but because it is above or below these levels that important consolidation (MMs filling SM orders) takes place. Once SM long orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at higher prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price higher, eventually. Once SM short orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at lower prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price lower, eventually.
PVSRA - If we can spot consolidations above/below key SR, examine the overall price action on various TF charts, and take note of where the notable increases in volume have most recently occurred (did volume favor relative highs or lows), then we can build a consensus about what kind of orders the MMs have most recently been filling; buying to open longs or close shorts, or selling to open shorts or close longs. And we can get a better idea if things will next become bullish or bearish. And once PA confirms our bullish or bearish PVSRA results, by recognizing the importance of Levels we can look beyond current PA in the direction it is going and look to historic PA S&R (consolidation around key Levels) to come up with candidates for where the price might be headed. And bull or bear swings typically run in terms of 100+, 150+, 200+ pips, .....etc. And now you know why.
Okay. Now, if this is your first introduction to PVSRA, and having just read the above, you are likely scratching your head and still confused. That is normal. I will tell you a secret about the market and why you have a right to be confused. The secret is this. The market cannot be defined by mathematics nor by immutable logic. This is why the most advanced mathematicians over a century have never even come close to cracking the market. It cannot be done. Something else, other than math and immutable logic is the fundamental operand in the market. Have you ever watched a child attempt a jigsaw puzzle for the first time? And watched as that child grew and attempted more of them, and more complex ones? What is at work in the market I will elaborate on later, but for now trust me in this. We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
Introduction to How the Market Really Works
Does anybody remember the "lil' Abner" cartoons in the Sunday papers? Let me draw for you a mental picture of how the market really works.....
Imagine Daddy Yokum ferociously racing a buckboard wagon up and down the steep inclines and declines in the rough, rocky mountain road that has sharp turns and a sheer cliff on one side. The wagon wheels are spewing rocks off the side of the cliff! Even Daddy Yokum's shotgun is going off due to the jolting of the buckboard! Daddy Yokum has a demented look on his face, but he is smiling! The horse has a wild look in it's eyes and is frothing at the mouth. There are two passengers being tossed around in the back of the buckboard, terror stricken! Now, let's pan back from this cartoon picture and place the labels needed. On the side of the wagon is the sign "Market Pricing". The demented, smiling Daddy Yokum, is the Market Maker. The passengers being tossed around are the buyers and sellers.
.....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs).
MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves!
The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market". While it serves the world of commerce, they run it to make profits. And they opened the market up to foster prolific currency trading by others for the sole purpose of making more profits. They move prices up and down to "create liquidity" to fill the orders of SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money), for the commissions they make by filling the orders. When they have some orders above the current price and some below the current price, who do you think determines the sequence of direction and distance the price is going to move so these orders can be filled? And always - since they know how they are going to move price next - they take positions themselves to make additional profits.
Notice #2: Read Post #1 completely and follow all instructions completely, and be serious about it or lose your posting privilege here.
Dear Gals and Guys, Fellow Retail Traders All,
"PVSRA" stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis. Now, with it's own thread, PVSRA is off to a New Beginning. Post #1 is the introduction to the thread and will contain the links to important content. It will undergo changes over time. Keep yourselves up-to-date. Refer back to Post #1 regularly.
This is a New Beginning, but not just for PVSRA. It is for all of you,....as it always has been for all of you. It is your thread. Here I shall be, as I have always been, just the caretaker of the body of work that follows. And, you have my pledge, that I have no commercial intentions and that everything here will be freely offered and shared in the spirit of retail traders helping retail traders, so that we may all experience growing success and God's Blessings for helping others.
This thread is the new text book for PVSRA. A good text book has clear text and illustrations. Please do this new text book proud and have the caring to make your posts well explained and very legible. Some will read these posts many months or even years from now. Will your post make sense to them then? The posting etiquette here is what best serves this new text book. Only post charts using our template(s), and if you use the MT4 "Quick Order" panel located in the upper left of the chart, please turn it off for posted pictures! Please understand our overall objective and be supportive of it. By doing so, you will help further the body of work being developed here, and you will have the thanks of the many others that are helping and being helped.
For clean postings of pictures of your chart, please follow these instructions:
1. Create Desktop file with some name like "Screenshots Jun 2015".
2. Click on "File" in MT4 banner.
3. Click on "Save as Picture".
4. Check "Active chart (as is).
5. Uncheck rectangle about MQL5.
6. Click ok.
7. Save to the Desktop file you created, from which you can retrieve for attaching to FF posts.
This will save a picture of just your chart, without all the distracting garbage that surrounds it! If any are not doing this, please start doing it for the sake of this thread's objective to be the best teaching text book ever!
Yours Truly,
Introduction to PVSRA
So, let us begin with an overview of PVSRA. In time, more will be transcribed here, but let this suffice for now. I would like to break this up and say something brief about each part. Okay?
Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period. But price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. The MMs are also "SM", and they tend to do the other SMs "one better"! This means that after the MMs fill the SM/DM orders, they might move price a bit further in an attempt to stop out some of those SM executed orders and sucker in more DM; both giving liquidity for the MMs to add to their own SM side position. Yes, the MMs are bastards. But the point is that could leave price not "nicely" above or below a SR anymore, yet more consolidation can occur.
Volume - Increases in activity denote increase in interest. But, is it long or short interest? Where is price in the bigger picture when this is happening? Is it at relative highs, or lows in the overall price action? And if a high volume bar is for a candle which you can examine by going to lower TF charts, you might see where in the spread of that candle the most volume occurred, high or low! Using volume is about taking note of relative increases in volume and what price is doing at the same time. Are the better volumes favoring the lower or the higher prices, as the MMs waffle price up and down? And do the volumes get particularly notable when the MMs take price above or below key SR?
S&R - Read all about S&R at "Baby Pips.com". What I want you to realize here is that the whole, half and quarter numbered price levels (hereinafter referred to as "Levels") are the most important SR of all in this market! Not because price stops, pauses, proceeds or reverses there, but because it is above or below these levels that important consolidation (MMs filling SM orders) takes place. Once SM long orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at higher prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price higher, eventually. Once SM short orders are filled, they become interested in placing orders to close them at lower prices, and hence the MMs will be moving price lower, eventually.
PVSRA - If we can spot consolidations above/below key SR, examine the overall price action on various TF charts, and take note of where the notable increases in volume have most recently occurred (did volume favor relative highs or lows), then we can build a consensus about what kind of orders the MMs have most recently been filling; buying to open longs or close shorts, or selling to open shorts or close longs. And we can get a better idea if things will next become bullish or bearish. And once PA confirms our bullish or bearish PVSRA results, by recognizing the importance of Levels we can look beyond current PA in the direction it is going and look to historic PA S&R (consolidation around key Levels) to come up with candidates for where the price might be headed. And bull or bear swings typically run in terms of 100+, 150+, 200+ pips, .....etc. And now you know why.
Okay. Now, if this is your first introduction to PVSRA, and having just read the above, you are likely scratching your head and still confused. That is normal. I will tell you a secret about the market and why you have a right to be confused. The secret is this. The market cannot be defined by mathematics nor by immutable logic. This is why the most advanced mathematicians over a century have never even come close to cracking the market. It cannot be done. Something else, other than math and immutable logic is the fundamental operand in the market. Have you ever watched a child attempt a jigsaw puzzle for the first time? And watched as that child grew and attempted more of them, and more complex ones? What is at work in the market I will elaborate on later, but for now trust me in this. We need to apply ourselves to learning how to do PVSRA just as a child attacks learning how to do jigsaw puzzles. And we must continue doing PVSRA, because in time our mind will "learn" when we have just picked up an important piece of the puzzle, and that we know where it goes! Developing the skill of PVSRA is an art form. We must not allow ourselves to feel badly if we miss clues. PVSRA is an art form that takes time to perfect. Over time our skill will grow and our "read" of the unpredictable market will improve. We must take to ongoing learning and application of PVSRA.
Introduction to How the Market Really Works
Does anybody remember the "lil' Abner" cartoons in the Sunday papers? Let me draw for you a mental picture of how the market really works.....
Imagine Daddy Yokum ferociously racing a buckboard wagon up and down the steep inclines and declines in the rough, rocky mountain road that has sharp turns and a sheer cliff on one side. The wagon wheels are spewing rocks off the side of the cliff! Even Daddy Yokum's shotgun is going off due to the jolting of the buckboard! Daddy Yokum has a demented look on his face, but he is smiling! The horse has a wild look in it's eyes and is frothing at the mouth. There are two passengers being tossed around in the back of the buckboard, terror stricken! Now, let's pan back from this cartoon picture and place the labels needed. On the side of the wagon is the sign "Market Pricing". The demented, smiling Daddy Yokum, is the Market Maker. The passengers being tossed around are the buyers and sellers.
.....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs).
MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves!
The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market". While it serves the world of commerce, they run it to make profits. And they opened the market up to foster prolific currency trading by others for the sole purpose of making more profits. They move prices up and down to "create liquidity" to fill the orders of SM (Smart Money) and DM (Dumb Money), for the commissions they make by filling the orders. When they have some orders above the current price and some below the current price, who do you think determines the sequence of direction and distance the price is going to move so these orders can be filled? And always - since they know how they are going to move price next - they take positions themselves to make additional profits.
