Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.16.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today is a pivotal day for the GBPUSD pair, as both the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) face key economic data releases. For the UK, inflation-related indicators including CPI y/y (2.7% vs 2.8% forecast), Core CPI y/y (3.4% vs 3.5%), RPI y/y (3.2% vs 3.4%), and HPI y/y (5.1% vs 4.9%) were released in the early hours. The slightly lower-than-expected CPI figures may reduce pressure on the Bank of England to hike rates, potentially weighing on the GBP. Later in the US session, the USD will be influenced by critical releases such as Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, along with industrial production data and oil inventories. Strong US data may bolster the USD, while dovish or weaker results could sustain bullish momentum for GBPUSD.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD H4 chart shows a strong and steady bullish trend over the past few sessions. The pair has been posting consecutive higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish momentum. Price action is consistently hugging the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong buying pressure. The candles have shown minimal retracements, with smaller-bodied red candles suggesting shallow corrections within the ongoing uptrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The GBPUSD price is trending close to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. The bands are widening, suggesting increasing volatility and the potential for further upside. The price staying above the midline signals persistent buying interest.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram bars are increasing positively, and the MACD line remains above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias. There is no sign of divergence, and the indicator confirms strong momentum behind the GBPUSD uptrend on the H4 chart.
RSI (14): The RSI stands at 73.14, moving into overbought territory. This suggests that while the bullish trend is strong, the pair might be susceptible to a short-term pullback or consolidation. Traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking at this level.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and next support levels are found at 1.3180, aligned with the Bollinger Bands’ midline and recent consolidation, and 1.3100, a prior structure high near the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Immediate resistance: 1.39645 (50% Fibonacci retracement, EMA 21) and secondary resistance could be 1.41155 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD H4 technical and fundamental analysis indicates that the pair is in a strong bullish phase, backed by robust price action, bullish momentum indicators, and widening Bollinger Bands. However, the RSI entering overbought territory and the high-impact news scheduled for both GBP and USD today suggest caution. Traders should monitor the upcoming US retail sales and Powell’s speech for potential volatility. A break above 1.3260 may open doors to further upside, while a rejection could initiate a pullback towards 1.3180.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.16.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the AUD/USD pair faces significant volatility from critical economic news releases from Australia and the US. From Australia, employment data, including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, will be in focus. Better-than-expected employment figures and a lower unemployment rate could strengthen the Australian Dollar, reflecting positive economic health and potentially increased consumer spending. Additionally, the NAB Business Confidence survey provides insights into the sentiment among Australian businesses, serving as a leading indicator for economic activity. On the US side, investors will closely watch the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Residential Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Natural Gas Storage reports. Furthermore, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Jeffrey Schmid will be scrutinized for signals on future monetary policy direction. Positive US data or hawkish Fed commentary could bolster the US Dollar, impacting AUDUSD price dynamics significantly.


Price Action:
The AUD-USD H4 chart has exhibited bullish momentum after shaping a clear double-bottom pattern, indicating a significant trend reversal. The price has recently breached the lower boundary of its ascending channel and is currently attempting a pullback towards the previously broken support level at 0.62286. At present, price action remains within a key resistance zone. If bullish momentum persists and the resistance is convincingly broken, the next potential target would be the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Conversely, failure to break this resistance could push the pair down to retest the EMA21 line or further down to the key level at 0.62286.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA 21: The EMA 21 line is currently below the price, providing dynamic support and confirming the ongoing bullish momentum. Traders should watch for interactions with this line as a potential turning point.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the price candles, indicating bullish sentiment remains intact for now. Traders should look for any flips of SAR dots to signal possible short-term reversals.
RSI: The RSI currently stands at 64.18, indicating moderately bullish momentum without being overbought. This suggests the pair may still have room for further upward movement before encountering significant selling pressure.
MACD: The MACD histogram is positive but declining, hinting at diminishing bullish momentum. Traders should watch closely for a potential bearish crossover, which could signal the onset of a corrective move or bearish reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate dynamic support is at the EMA 21 line, followed by a key support level at 0.62286.
Resistance: Current resistance lies within the range of 0.6370 to 0.6380, coinciding with recent price action highs. Further resistance could be encountered at the upper channel boundary around 0.6400-0.6410.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD USD pair remains bullish on the H4 timeframe, supported by price action and technical indicators. Traders should closely monitor today's significant USD news events, which are likely to increase volatility and could influence directional moves. If resistance at the 0.6370-0.6380 zone breaks, traders can expect further bullish continuation towards the channel's upper boundary. However, caution is advised due to the weakening MACD momentum and potential fundamental disruptions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.17.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.18.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s USDJPY fundamental analysis centres on two potential catalysts. In Tokyo, traders await Japan’s Core CPI, the inflation yardstick that omits fresh‑food prices; a hotter‑than‑forecast print usually lifts the yen as bets on tighter Bank of Japan policy return. Stateside, attention turns to FOMC member Mary Daly’s remarks at UC Berkeley. Any hint of a more hawkish stance could bolster the dollar. The push‑and‑pull between an inflation‑sensitive JPY and a policy‑driven USD sets the stage for elevated volatility on the USD-JPY H4 chart in today’s session.


Price Action
From a USD JPY price‑action perspective, the pair has respected a well‑defined descending channel since late March, carving out successive lower highs and lower lows. Price is grinding along the channel’s mid‑line after slipping beneath the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement at 143.75 and tagging a fresh swing low near 141.90. Candles remain predominantly bearish, with short‑lived upticks capped by the channel’s upper boundary—evidence that sellers still dominate intraday order flow.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages: The 9‑period EMA (blue) stays beneath the 17‑period EMA (orange), reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend; every attempt to reclaim the faster average has stalled, turning these MAs into dynamic resistance.
RSI (14): Hovering around 40, the RSI reflects lingering downside momentum without dipping into oversold terrain, implying room for another leg lower before bullish exhaustion signals emerge.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The oscillator has rolled over from the 70‑zone and is crossing south of its signal line near 45, hinting that the latest corrective bounce is losing steam.


Support and Resistance
Support: Support sits around the confluence of the channel base and the 100 % Fibonacci level at 140.85‑141.00.
Resistance: Resistance is found at 143.75—the 61.8 % retracement—followed by 145.65 at the 50 % level and the channel’s upper trend‑line.


Conclusion and Consideration
Current USD/JPY H4 technical analysis underscores a dominant down‑trend, validated by converging indicators and persistent supply at moving‑average resistance. Unless Core CPI disappoints or Daly strikes an unexpectedly dovish tone, rallies toward 143.75 may tempt sellers targeting 141.00 and potentially 140.00. Intraday traders should track channel boundaries closely, while swing participants may wait for a confirmed break of either 143.75 or 140.85 before committing fresh positions in this USDJPY trading strategy.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.18.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar) traders are closely monitoring today's key economic events impacting the USD. The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee may provide crucial insights into future monetary policy. Hawkish statements may strengthen the USD, potentially putting pressure on Gold prices. Additionally, the release of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index will give investors further clarity on the US economy’s trajectory, possibly affecting USD strength and subsequently influencing Gold market sentiment. Moreover, IMF meetings discussing global economic stability, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks could significantly impact market volatility for XAU/USD.


Price Action:
XAU-USD on the H4 chart demonstrates a clear bullish trend, steadily approaching its previous all-time high (ATH). The price action shows consistent upward movement with minor corrective pullbacks, confirming the resilience of the bullish momentum. Currently, the price is nearing the Fibonacci 0 level, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The short-term Moving Average (MA 9, blue) has crossed above the longer-term Moving Average (MA 17, orange), signaling bullish continuation potential.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA): On the H4 timeframe, the short-term MA (9-period, blue) has decisively crossed above the long-term MA (17-period, orange), confirming bullish momentum. This bullish crossover is typically viewed as a strong positive signal by traders, indicating the potential for further upward price movements.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently stands at 74.05, signaling strong bullish momentum and slightly overbought conditions. This implies that although bullish sentiment dominates, traders should remain cautious of potential corrective pullbacks due to overbought conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator remains positive, with the MACD line clearly above the signal line, highlighting strong upward momentum. The histogram also supports ongoing bullish strength but traders should monitor for decreasing momentum as the price approaches resistance levels.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator is positioned at 66.01, exhibiting upward momentum without being excessively overbought. This suggests room for further bullish advancement but advises caution as the indicator approaches higher threshold values.
Volume: Trading volumes have been stable, supporting the recent bullish price movements. Consistent volumes confirm sustained market interest, adding reliability to the ongoing bullish trend for XAUUSD.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support lies around the 3278.73 level (Fibonacci 23.6%), aligning with recent consolidation zones.
Resistance: Critical resistance is the current ATH around the 3340.39 mark, where significant selling pressure may appear.


Conclusion and Consideration
The XAUUSD/GOLDUSD H4 analysis suggests bullish market conditions remain intact, reinforced by bullish MA crossover, strong RSI, MACD positivity, and supportive volumes. However, traders should closely watch key economic events today, including the Fed speech, Leading Indicators release, and IMF meetings, which could create considerable market volatility. Due to RSI's overbought conditions, traders are recommended to consider prudent risk management strategies for potential short-term pullbacks around the resistance levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.21.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.22.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, significant volatility could impact EUR vs. USD due to crucial speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and multiple Federal Reserve officials. Christine Lagarde’s speech, closely followed by traders, may provide insights into future ECB monetary policy, influencing the Euro significantly. Simultaneously, speeches from Federal Reserve officials including Governor Philip Jefferson and presidents Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari will offer insights into the Fed’s monetary policy stance and economic mobility objectives, influencing the USD’s strength and market expectations. Traders should closely monitor these events for potential market shifts.


Price Action:
EUR/USD price action on the H4 timeframe demonstrates a consolidation pattern between two key trend lines. After encountering strong resistance at the Fibonacci Expansion (FE) 61.8% level, the pair has retraced downwards. The support trend line below is likely to attract buyers, potentially ending the correction phase and prompting the pair to retest the resistance at the FE 61.8% level. Successful bullish momentum above this resistance could propel EUR/USD toward the FE 100% expansion target, marking significant upside potential.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD: The MACD indicator currently shows declining bullish momentum with the histogram bars decreasing in height, suggesting the ongoing bullish trend is losing strength. Traders should monitor closely for a potential bearish crossover that might indicate a temporary shift towards bearish sentiment.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67.29, approaching overbought territory but still providing room for further upward movement. This indicates underlying bullish momentum, yet caution is recommended due to the proximity to overbought conditions, potentially signaling a short-term price correction.
Williams %R: The Williams %R indicator stands at -26.18, highlighting moderate bullish sentiment. However, it is gradually declining, indicating a decrease in bullish strength and the possibility of price consolidation or correction before the next bullish advance.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located near the ascending trend line at approximately 1.1500, providing a critical area for buyers to re-enter the market.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is set at the FE 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion level around 1.1568, acting as a formidable barrier for bulls. A break above this level targets the FE 100% expansion at approximately 1.1750.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR-USD technical analysis for the H4 timeframe reveals a bullish bias with current consolidation near key Fibonacci resistance levels. While the MACD indicates weakening bullish momentum and RSI nearing overbought conditions, the broader bullish trend remains intact, supported by price action analysis. Traders should exercise caution due to high-impact news events from the ECB and Federal Reserve officials, potentially leading to increased volatility. Monitoring closely for clear breakout signals above resistance or bounce confirmations at support is recommended for optimal trading strategies.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.22.2025

 

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