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US30 Price Action and Technical Outlook on H4 Chart

The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow, is a key benchmark index representing 30 major U.S. companies and is widely traded in the forex market as a CFD under the US30 forex pair. Often referred to as a barometer of U.S. economic health, the Dow’s movements are closely tied to major economic news and data releases. Today’s fundamental analysis centers on a series of high-impact U.S. economic indicators, including labor inflation, employment change (Non-Farm Payrolls), and the unemployment rate—data that are critical in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. While the U.S. Treasury’s semiannual currency report is tentatively scheduled, its potential implications on global exchange rate policies and any accusations of currency manipulation could influence forex flows and risk sentiment. If employment data comes in stronger than forecast, this could pressure equities due to renewed rate hike fears, while weaker labor data may support a more dovish outlook, boosting the US30. These developments make today's session particularly sensitive for Dow Jones price action, especially as traders await direction from upcoming figures and Fed sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

From a technical standpoint on the H4 chart, the US30 – Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading in a horizontal range between the support zone of 42238 and resistance around 43194, with price movement alternating between bullish and bearish candles. Over the last few days, price action has lacked strong directional movement but remains in a broader bullish trend that has recently slowed down. Importantly, price continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud, which remains green but has become thinner, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Previous candles tested the upper edge of the cloud but failed to penetrate it, while the most recent candles remain above it, suggesting dynamic support is still intact. Volume bars show a mixed outlook with no clear accumulation or distribution trend, although a slight uptick in green bars hints at buyers attempting to regain control. The MACD and histogram indicate weakening momentum, with a possible convergence forming that could lead to a short-term pullback unless fresh bullish volume confirms a breakout. Overall, the Dow is holding its bullish structure on the 4H time frame, but traders should watch closely for confirmation of direction around current levels.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 
JAP225 Technical Outlook and Economic Impact Analysis

The Nikkei 225 (JAP225), often referred to simply as "the Nikkei," is Japan's premier stock market index, reflecting the performance of 225 major Japanese companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Known for its sensitivity to Japan’s economic health, it serves as a vital gauge for investor sentiment towards the Japanese yen (JPY) and broader economic indicators. Today's fundamental outlook hinges on significant economic releases, including Japan's Bank Lending data, Current Account balance, GDP deflator, and GDP growth rate. Favorable data in these reports typically strengthens the JPY by indicating economic health, potentially impacting the Nikkei 225 positively. Concurrently, traders will watch U.S. Wholesale Inventories closely; a lower-than-forecast reading might strengthen the USD, affecting JPY crosses and indirectly influencing investor sentiment towards Japanese equities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

Analyzing the Nikkei 225-JAP225 H4 technical chart, the price is moving within a bullish correction, attempting to retrace a recent downward trend. The index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling bullish momentum, approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which might act as resistance. Although the price remains above the cloud, the Ichimoku cloud itself is mixed with a red upper band and green lower band, suggesting uncertainty. Notably, the cloud has become thinner, indicating potential volatility ahead. Volume indicators reflect moderate buying pressure, while the MACD histogram and lines suggest bullish momentum continuation, albeit cautious, as the recent bullish move appears corrective rather than strongly impulsive.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 
UK100 Technical Outlook Resistance Test Ahead

The UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 or "Footsie," tracks the performance of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange and is influenced significantly by the GBP currency movements. Fundamental analysis today highlights crucial releases such as the British Retail Consortium's Like-for-like Retail Sales and employment indicators, including Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, and the Unemployment Rate. Positive retail and employment data generally support the GBP, bolstering investor sentiment toward UK equities, including the UK100, as robust labor markets and retail activity indicate consumer spending health, indirectly benefiting companies listed on the FTSE 100.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

Analyzing the provided UK100 H4 chart, price action indicates an impending test of the resistance line following a clear trendline support. However, price typically struggles to breach resistance on its initial attempt, suggesting potential multiple retests before successfully breaking through, especially considering the current market momentum. The Parabolic SAR shows bullish momentum, reinforcing the upward trend, while Bollinger Bands indicate moderate volatility with potential consolidation near resistance. The Stochastic indicator suggests a neutral stance, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum immediately, suggesting cautious optimism as traders await confirmation of breakout direction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 
GBPUSD Fundamentals and Price Action Target Higher Levels

GBP/USD, popularly known as "Cable," is a major currency pair representing the British Pound against the US Dollar. This pair is highly traded, known for its volatility and liquidity. Fundamentally, today's upcoming news includes data from RICS on housing prices, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and trade balance, all critical indicators influencing the UK's economic health. Positive results in these economic indicators typically support the GBP by signaling economic strength, potentially increasing demand for the Pound. Conversely, US data releases, notably the Producer Price Index and unemployment claims, will influence the USD's strength, reflecting inflation pressures and labor market conditions.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

Analyzing the GBPUSD H4 chart, the long-term bullish trend established since January 2025 continues firmly. Recent price action illustrates bullish momentum, with the latest candles positioned within the Ichimoku Cloud and breaking through its upper boundary. Price is advancing from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (1.34772) toward the 0 Fibonacci level (1.35787), which has consistently acted as a significant resistance level. Volume indicators remain strong, suggesting sustained market interest. Additionally, the MACD indicator and histogram confirm the bullish sentiment, indicating potential continuation if resistance at 1.35787 is convincingly surpassed.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 

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