Daily Forex News

Discussion in 'General Discussions' started by xtreamforex12, Nov 15, 2018.

  1. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of EUR/GBP Currency Pair
    EUR GBP

    The EUR traded higher against the GBP and closed at 0.8841.
    • Overall the market may be in a range because of NFP scheduled for Friday.
    • The pair stalls at the weekly Pivot.
    • It has a major resistance at 0.9000 Level (Distribution level).
    • We can expect a selling pressure if the pair breaks the VPOC of current month (in confluence with the - 3 week Value area high).
    • We may target the ADR 5 day low as Take Profit zone.
    • No more big movements expected because of the NFP news scheduled for Friday.
    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88169. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88657, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88899.

    EUR GBP Previous Day range was 36.5 and Current Day Range is 12.6.

    Morning Briefing

    ADP National Employment Report states that U.S. private employers added 27K jobs in May, This reading is well below the forecast, This gain is the most Smallest gain in the Past 9 years
    Federal Reserve Chairman stated that FED considers to cut rates and soon.
    Key Points in the above statements are:
    1-ADP report says that the added jobs are less than expected and is the lowest increase in 9 years(This can be a negative news for USD).
    2- FED considers to cut rates soon is a clear signal for weakness in the $$$.
    So fundamentally staying Short on the $ may be more attractive than Long.

    ECB will confirm economic risks remains to the downside and anticipate that ECB President Draghi will present a dovish tone to the monetary policy outlook; it means that we may have a Weaker EUR and its most strong competitor is JPY, so technically staying short on EUR pairs specially selling rallies EURJPY may be more handy.

    YEN after strongly appreciating, there is a reduced risks of a reversal. Even if risk appetite gains interest and equity markets continue to north (STAY LONG ON JPY).
     
  2. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and EUR/GBP Currency Pair

    AUD CAD

    The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9291.

    As mentioned earlier that AUDCAD has been in a Double Top Formation.
    Now we see that we have
    1- Broke the neckline.
    2 - Broke the previous Value Area Low and VPOC levels.
    3 - Broke the Trendline.
    4 - Broke below the Main trend.
    5 - Its below the weekly monthly yearly and quarterly pivots.
    6 - Formed a Morobozu candle on D1.
    7 - Fundamentally AUD is weak due to rate cuts and CAD is strong due to 25k jobs added in CANADA.
    8 - Broke the - 3 week VPOC resistance.
    9 - Selling at the rally may be a good opportunity.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.92765, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92620. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.93154, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.93398.

    AUD CAD Previous Day range was 38.9 and Current Day Range is 37.6.

    EUR GBP

    The EUR traded lower against the GBP and closed at 0.8895.

    1 - A bearish bias on GBP and AUD.
    2 - A double top formed on the yearly pivot.
    3 - The neckline is also the previous resistance.
    4 - A break below the MSup1 will lead the pair to the latest resistance, triggering a buy limit situation.
    5 - The pair forms a Pivot Support trend line and is supported by fundamentals.
    6 - This is the first day after NFP so we will come to know the market wise by end of UK session.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88625, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.89143, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89334.

    EUR GBP Previous Day range was 51.8 and Current Day Range is 24.9.
     
  3. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of USD/CHF and EUR/USD Currency Pair

    USD CHF

    The USD traded higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9897.

    1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
    2 - It stalls in between the previous week value area HIGH & LOW.
    3 - The VPOC level is in confluence with Quarterly Pivot.
    4 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother Bar Inside Bar Value Area High and Low.
    5 - The pair has been in a series of LH and LL.
    6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.
    7 - Its advised to trade the Value area High and Low as support/resistance until a market profile P/D/B shape is formed.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.98808, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.98647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99164, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99359.

    USD CHF Previous Day range was 35.6 and Current Day Range is 13.5.

    EUR USD

    The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1311.

    1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
    2 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother bar Inside Bar.
    3 - It’s in tight range of previous week Value area High and Quarter Pivot.
    4 - The pair has been in a series of HH and HL.
    5 - As we can see that the pair has shifted its direction to Higher Highs in the weekly Pivots.
    6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12906, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12699. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.13515.

    EUR USD Previous Day range was 40.8 and Current Day Range is 15.

    Morning Briefing

    1 - The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs.
    2 - Euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow.
    3 - RBA to cut rates in August meeting.
    4 - BoC on hold for now with the next move in rates likely up.
    5 - More EUR/USD Short Covering Likely Within 1.1280 - 1.1380 Ranges.
     
  4. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of USD Dollar Index

    USD Dollar Index

    Here we see a very interesting scenario that
    1 - USD Index is in a range, the range continues buy Pound Swissie and Euro.
    All the above mentioned pairs share the same formations.
    2 - A Motherbar/Insidebar found @ D1 time frame.
    3 - Stalls @ the Year Resistance 1.
    4 - Already achieved the 200% Extensions.
    5 - Stalls @ Pivot Quarter 1 as a Support
    6 - The Motherbar/Insidebar @ the Pivot support and resistances
    7 - The most important reason for this range is the mixed data from USD. Like rate cuts and positive economic data.
    8 - The CPI data is expected today.
    Keep in mind that it’s correlated with PPI data.

    Detailed Historical data Analysis shows that the Moving average of Period 2 has a downwards slope in CPI and PPI.

    According to the Analysis, The Dollar Index is expected to find support at 96.433, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 96.333. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 96.683, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.833.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  5. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of USD/CNH Currency Pair

    USD CNH

    USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.9286
    G-20 Meeting Ahead on 28th June for US China Issues!

    4 Possible outcomes at the coming G20 meeting:
    (1) President Xi does not show at the G20 and the US imposes more tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 fairly quickly.
    (2) Xi and Trump meet but talks do not go well and US threatens further tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 but more gradually.
    (3) Status quo scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to disagree, tariffs go up as planned but USDCNH likely tests 7.00 later in July.
    (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.

    According to the Analysis, The USD/CNH is expected to find support at 6.92356, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.91848. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.93474, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.94084.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  6. xt

    xtreamforex12 Member
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    Technical Overview of AUD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD/CAD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

    AUD USD

    AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6869.

    1 - 1 month long consolidation 0.6850-0.7000 threatens to be below because of the rate cut news.
    2 - RBA will be cutting rates to 0.75% till November.
    3 - On a daily chart we see a perfect resistance trend line indicating a downwards movement
    4 - On daily chart the 1Month long support level can be seen
    5 - The pair is below Yearly, Quarterly, Weekly and monthly pivots
    6 - We can expect a bearish sentiment in the AUD till November as we know there may be massive rate cuts (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.

    According to the Analysis, The AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.68478, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68260. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69046, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69396.

    CHF JPY

    CHF traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.654.

    As we already see that market is in a risk aversion state. There is more room for USDJPY to do down. China and Russia are shaking hands against USD, This may strengthen the CHY and devaluate the USD.
    Keep in mind that now a day’s its only fundamentals that are playing in the market. In my opinion The strong currencies are JPY CHF CNY and Weak are USD GBP AUD.

    According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 108.384, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.113. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.020, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.385.

    AUD CAD

    AUD traded higher against CAD and closed at 0.9212.

    Fundamentally we know that AUD is weaker due to 2 rate cuts expected in 2019 and low to 0.75% basis points. Hence we can compare it with the strength of CAD.
    Here we see that the pair has found a support at the low from 01.03.2019.
    As this is a very major support and has been the low of last year, we may expect a short term bounce but the Fundamental bias is towards South.

    According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 0.91924, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.91728. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.92257, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.92394.

    EUR JPY

    EUR traded higher against JPY and closed at 121.677.

    Risk Aversion is an open secret now. We all know that the investors are after the strength of CHF and JPY. Here in the EURJPY we see 5 bullish candles moving ahead to the 5-day ADR
    Monthly Pivot
    Weekly Pivot
    So, we can expect a breakout from the ADR high or
    A low volume test candle signaling a bearish continuation.

    According to the Analysis, The EUR/JPY is expected to find support at 121.422, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.168. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 122.095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.514.

    Fundamentals of the Day

    BCC announced that it may see a slowed growth in the British Chamber of Commerce.
    As this announcement may have a negative impact on the GBP, Its advised to stay short on GBP.

    The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced on Monday that the second phase of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio. This process is adapted by economies who want to stabilize their economy. Keep in mind that there is G-20 Meeting ahead, that’s why China is Stabilizing itself to face any sort of bad effect of the meeting.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     

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