Forex News Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.24.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair today faces key economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States, potentially driving volatility. The upcoming releases include consumer sentiment from NIQ, unemployment rates, and several critical PMI readings from S&P Global, expected to significantly impact the EUR’s strength. Similarly, the USD may experience volatility with upcoming PMI data from manufacturing and services sectors and new home sales data. Traders should closely monitor these releases as they provide insight into economic health and consumer confidence, influencing the short-term direction of EUR-USD.


Price Action:
The EUR vs. USD H4 analysis indicates a robust bullish price action. After a prolonged corrective move, price reacted positively to the long-term ascending trendline support, recently breaking above the correction’s resistance line. The clear bullish candle breakout suggests strong bullish momentum. Moreover, given the RSI divergence confirming the bullish strength, the previous swing high before the correction emerges as a probable price target.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator has shifted below the current price action, confirming bullish momentum. Dots positioned beneath candlesticks indicate a clear upward trend continuation signal for EURUSD on the H4 timeframe.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at approximately 69.36, nearing overbought conditions but notably displaying a bullish divergence against recent price lows. This divergence underlines solid bullish momentum, suggesting potential further gains before significant corrections.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator, currently around 89.99, indicates strongly overbought conditions. Despite this, it continues to reflect bullish strength. Traders should remain vigilant for possible short-term retracements due to overextended price conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the recent breakout point near 1.1665, aligning with the ascending trendline support.
Resistance: Initial resistance is observed at the recent swing high around 1.1795; overcoming this level could open the pathway toward higher resistance at approximately 1.1845.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 timeframe technical analysis favors bullish continuation, supported by decisive price action and confirming indicators like RSI divergence and Parabolic SAR signals. Despite strong bullish sentiment, traders should exercise caution considering the overbought signals from the Stochastic oscillator. Upcoming economic releases for EUR and USD warrant careful attention due to their potential to create substantial volatility and directional changes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.24.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.25.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
BTC-USD price dynamics today could be influenced significantly by the USD economic data release from the Census Bureau regarding Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders (excluding transportation). Historically, stronger-than-expected data is supportive of the US Dollar, potentially applying downward pressure on BTCUSD prices. Traders should closely monitor today's release, as robust economic data could trigger volatility, influencing both USD strength and risk appetite among cryptocurrency investors.


Price Action:
BTC USD analysis on the H4 chart shows the formation of a classic descending triangle following the recent All-Time High (ATH) around $123,000. This typically bearish formation signals potential downside risk and a possible correction toward the previous breakout level around $111,700. Currently, BTC vs. USD price action is testing a critical uptrend support line, presenting a pivotal decision point. Traders must monitor which trendline breaks first, as a decisive move could set the tone for the near-term BTCUSD direction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator is currently plotting dots above the recent candles, indicating a bearish sentiment in BTCUSD’s short-term price action. Traders may interpret this as a potential indication for continuation of the corrective move.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently around 52, situated near the midpoint, indicating neutral momentum in BTCUSD price. This positioning suggests that the market is undecided, making a breakout above or below current trendlines more impactful.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram and signal line are hovering around the zero level, signaling a neutral momentum for BTC-USD. This equilibrium indicates that market participants are awaiting stronger directional cues before committing.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate and critical support lies at the ascending trendline around $118,200. A break below this could accelerate the move toward the major support at the previously broken resistance level near $111,700.
Resistance: Key resistance is located at the recent ATH around $123,000. A bullish breakout above this resistance could signal renewed upward momentum and target fresh highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC USD is at a critical juncture on the H4 chart, with significant uncertainty as indicated by neutral technical indicators like RSI and MACD. The bearish formation of the descending triangle is balanced by strong ascending trendline support. Today's USD economic data, particularly Durable Goods Orders, may serve as a catalyst for volatility, and traders should carefully manage risk accordingly. It is prudent to wait for a confirmed breakout in either direction before initiating new positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.25.2025

 

[Eustance Isbor]

Thanks for the insightful EURJPY analysis! The consolidation pattern between Bollinger Bands and the shift in Parabolic SAR signals are particularly useful. The lack of strong directional bias makes sense, and I agree - waiting for a confirmed breakout or sustained SAR trend is wise. Looking forward to your next update to see if the bullish reversal gains momentum. Keep up the great technical analysis!

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

ETHUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.28.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, ETH/USD market participants should closely monitor two major economic events influencing volatility. The US and EU have finalized a trade deal, imposing a 15% US tariff on most EU exports, including critical sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. While lower than the initially proposed 30%, the continued 50% tariff on steel and aluminum may induce market caution. Additionally, significant attention is on the upcoming US-China tariff negotiations in Stockholm. A positive outcome from these talks could ease investor tensions and boost risk assets such as Ethereum, supporting further bullish sentiment for ETH-USD.


Price Action:
Technical analysis of ETH USD on the H4 timeframe shows a bullish momentum reasserting itself. After failing to break the crucial resistance level of 3825 initially, ETH/USD underwent an 8% price correction, finding strong buying pressure at the ascending support line. Currently, ETH-USD is again challenging the 3825 level with renewed strength, indicating strong bullish intent. Should the price decisively close above this key resistance, a further move toward the 4100 area is expected.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: ETHUSD’s Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the candlesticks, signaling a fresh bullish phase and suggesting that upward momentum will likely persist in the short term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently hovers around the 64.47 level. There is clear bullish divergence signaling sustained buying interest and room for ETHUSD to extend gains without immediate risk of overbought conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator registers positive values at approximately 39.378 and 35.965, with the MACD line above the signal line. This alignment underscores increasing bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of price continuation upward.
Stochastic Oscillator: ETH-USD’s stochastic oscillator currently stands at approximately 70.30 and 60.14. This indicator further supports bullish momentum, although traders should remain vigilant for potential short-term pullbacks, particularly near resistance.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support lies at 3600, reinforced by the ascending trendline.
Resistance: Critical immediate resistance is positioned at 3825, with further resistance projected around the psychological level of 4100.


Conclusion and Consideration:
ETHUSD’s H4 technical chart analysis strongly favors continued bullish price action, supported by bullish signals across the Parabolic SAR, RSI, MACD, and stochastic indicators. With supportive fundamental developments anticipated from US-China tariff negotiations and stabilized US-EU trade relations, ETH vs. USD has favorable conditions for breaking higher. However, traders must remain cautious near key resistance levels and closely watch upcoming economic news developments that may significantly influence market volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.28.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.29.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, GBP-USD market sentiment is influenced by significant economic indicators from both the UK and US economies. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Price Index data release today could lead to increased volatility in GBP pairs, especially ahead of tomorrow's Bank of England monetary policy announcement. A stronger-than-forecast reading would positively impact GBP, as traders look for early signs of inflationary pressures. Conversely, the US Dollar will be impacted by the Census Bureau’s Trade Balance data and Wholesale Inventories figures, potentially influencing short-term USD demand. Market participants should closely monitor these releases for cues on the GBPUSD exchange rate movements.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart indicates the price has entered a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), identified between the broken support-turned-resistance around 1.33790 and the next significant support around 1.33020 derived from the latest cluster zone of candles. Price action traders are observing closely for signs of bullish reversal as the PRZ could act as a robust pivot area, potentially pushing prices upward towards the EMA21. However, if the PRZ fails to hold, a further bearish movement toward 1.33020 support is probable.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA21: The GBPUSD pair price is currently below the EMA21 line, confirming a bearish short-term outlook. Traders might await a potential upward retest of the EMA21 for further bearish confirmation or reversal signals.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 27.66, signaling the market is in oversold conditions. This suggests a potential price reversal could occur soon, particularly given the RSI divergence observed in the H1 timeframe, enhancing the likelihood of a bullish correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator currently shows values of -0.0032 for the MACD line and -0.001818 for the signal line, indicating strong bearish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for potential bullish crossover signals in the coming sessions, signifying weakening bearish pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and critical support is located at approximately 1.33020, corresponding with recent cluster lows.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is now situated at around 1.33790, previously acting as significant support but currently broken and potentially acting as a resistance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the GBP-USD pair on the H4 chart is currently in a critical reversal zone, supported by oversold RSI conditions, suggesting potential bullish reversal opportunities. The bearish momentum confirmed by EMA21 and MACD highlights caution for bullish entries. Traders should monitor today's economic data closely, as market reactions could sharply influence GBP/USD volatility. Appropriate risk management strategies are highly recommended due to upcoming data-driven market uncertainties.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.29.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s EUR/USD analysis is framed by multiple Eurozone macroeconomic indicators due for release. With data on consumer spending, GDP, and retail sales scheduled, traders are closely watching for signs of economic resilience. A stronger-than-forecast reading would typically be bullish for the euro, especially from the INSEE and Destatis GDP reports. Meanwhile, the USD awaits impactful data later in the week, including ADP employment data and crude oil inventories, which may shift the Fed’s interest rate expectations. For now, mixed macro signals leave EUR/USD highly sensitive to incoming figures and central bank sentiment, particularly in light of persistent inflationary concerns across the Eurozone and potential Fed policy adjustments.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe has initiated a sharp bearish correction from the 1.17300 peak, losing approximately -2.14% since the start of the week. After a strong downward move, price action found temporary support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.15300. This has led to two green candles forming, suggesting a short-term rebound. However, the current downtrend structure remains dominant, with lower highs and lower lows evident. If the price fails to break through the resistance at the 38.2% (1.15820) or 50.0% (1.16250) retracement levels, a renewed decline could target the 0.0% Fibonacci level around 1.14500.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The 9-period EMA (blue) has decisively crossed below the 17-period EMA (orange), confirming the bearish shift in momentum on the EUR-USD H4 chart. This crossover early in the week has continued to guide price lower, acting as dynamic resistance during minor pullbacks.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are firmly positioned above the recent H4 candles, affirming bearish momentum. The indicator has been consistent in signaling downward price action and will remain a key reference point until a reversal signal forms below price.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is strongly negative, with the MACD line at -0.004621 and the signal line at -0.002724. This widening gap suggests persistent downside pressure. However, traders should monitor for potential MACD convergence if upward corrective movement continues in the next few candles.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The key short-term support lies around the 1.15300 zone, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A break below this level could accelerate the move toward the 0.0% retracement near 1.14500.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at 1.15820 (38.2% Fib level). A further upside correction could face resistance at 1.16250 (50.0% Fib), with the stronger bearish barrier remaining around the 1.16700 region.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 chart technical analysis signals a prevailing bearish bias, reinforced by the moving averages crossover, downward MACD momentum, and Parabolic SAR positioning. Although the pair shows a temporary bounce from 1.15300 support, any upward retracement toward the 38.2% or 50.0% Fibonacci levels may encounter renewed selling pressure. From a fundamental standpoint, key EUR economic data today may introduce volatility, but until significant bullish catalysts emerge, bears remain in control. Caution is advised for long positions unless confirmed by reversal signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.30.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.31.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-JPY currency pair is likely to experience increased volatility today due to significant economic releases from both Japan and the United States. Japanese Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence data are scheduled, which will provide crucial insights into the economic health of Japan. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor the outcomes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statements and comments by the BOJ Governor for indications of future policy shifts. From the U.S. side, traders will pay close attention to the Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment Claims, which can significantly influence the USD valuation, as these metrics directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.


Price Action:
The USD/JPY pair has transitioned into a bullish phase on the H4 chart, clearly evident after breaking the resistance line of its previous downtrend. Currently, the pair is trading within an ascending channel, consistently respecting its boundaries. After recently bouncing off the channel’s lower trendline, the price appears headed toward the upper boundary, setting a potential bullish target. The recent bullish candles reinforce the upward momentum, suggesting continued bullish sentiment in the short term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicators have consistently formed below the last four candles, indicating a clear bullish momentum in the short-term price action of the USD JPY pair. Traders can interpret this as a potential continuation signal toward the upper channel boundary.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, the RSI stands at 65.69, signaling robust bullish strength but still beneath the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates that while bullish momentum is strong, there is still room for further upside before becoming overextended.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator presents values of 0.4017 and 0.3214, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line, supporting the bullish scenario. This positioning suggests continued buying momentum, albeit with caution for potential weakening if the MACD line converges toward the signal line in upcoming sessions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for the USD-JPY pair is found at approximately 147.435, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and recent swing lows.
Resistance: Key resistance is expected near the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 149.640, coinciding with recent peaks that could challenge bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-JPY H4 chart currently favors bullish continuation, supported by key technical indicators such as Parabolic SAR, RSI, and MACD, along with constructive price action within the ascending channel. However, market participants should remain cautious given today’s significant economic data and monetary policy announcements from both Japan and the United States, potentially increasing volatility. Monitoring key resistance and support levels will be essential to effectively manage trading positions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.31.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.01.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EURGBP pair is likely to see moderate volatility as both the Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP) are influenced by several macroeconomic indicators. For the EUR, a flurry of economic releases including the Final and Flash PMIs, CPI (Consumer Price Index), and retail sales are scheduled. These are critical metrics for assessing economic health, particularly inflation and business activity across the Eurozone. Strong PMI or CPI figures could support a bullish case for the Euro if they exceed forecasts. On the GBP side, the focus is on the House Price Index and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Any positive surprise from the UK housing or manufacturing data could boost the Pound, potentially applying downward pressure on EUR/GBP. Overall, the market could be reactive today, with traders adjusting their positions based on real-time data surprises from either side.


Price Action:
The EURGBP pair on the H4 chart has been moving in a clear bullish trend since early June, following a long-term ascending trendline. Recently, the price entered a short-term corrective phase, pulling back from the resistance area around 0.87600. However, after testing the strong support zone near 0.86100, the price action shows bullish rejection with consecutive green candles forming. Parabolic SAR dots have shifted below the candles, indicating a potential resumption of upward momentum. The EUR GBP price is currently attempting to retake lost ground and approach the resistance at 0.86800, a key barrier to further upside.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR has shifted from above to below the price for the past 5 spots, signaling a reversal of momentum back to the bullish side. This is often considered an early signal for a trend continuation, especially when paired with bullish candlestick patterns forming at major support levels.
Moving Averages (MA9 Blue / MA17 Orange): Currently, the fast MA (9) is still below the slow MA (17), with both moving slightly downward. However, price action has pierced through the MA9, which is now starting to slope upward. If this short MA crosses above the long MA, it could trigger a bullish crossover, confirming further upside potential toward the 0.87600 resistance.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram shows a bearish trend softening as it begins to rise back toward the zero line. The MACD line is at -0.001169 and the signal line at -0.001495, suggesting decreasing selling pressure. If momentum continues, a bullish crossover could occur in the next few sessions.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is at 46.51, recovering from near-oversold levels. This neutral-to-bullish positioning indicates the market has room to rise without being overbought, especially if supported by positive news or a breakout above key resistance.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest key support level is seen around 0.86100, where the price recently bounced, aligning with historical price rejection zones and the lower bound of the bullish trend.
Resistance: The next major resistance lies at 0.86800, a zone that may cap upward movement in the short term. A confirmed breakout above this level could open the path to 0.87600, the previous high.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In this EURGBP H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis, the pair remains within a broader upward trend, though it recently experienced a healthy pullback. The combination of technical signals—such as SAR shift, bullish price action at support, and a possible MACD reversal—suggests a potential continuation to the upside, especially if upcoming Eurozone data beats expectations. Caution remains warranted, however, as mixed fundamental results from either the Eurozone or the UK could shift short-term sentiment. Traders should monitor today's key macroeconomic releases closely to confirm price direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.01.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) today could experience increased volatility due to important upcoming USD news releases. The Census Bureau will release data on U.S. Factory Orders, a key indicator measuring the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. An actual value greater than forecasted typically strengthens the USD, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, insights from the Federal Reserve's quarterly lending report, indicating confidence in lending and spending, could impact USD strength. Traders should closely monitor these releases, as stronger-than-expected data may weigh on gold prices, while weaker data could provide support.


Price Action:
The GOLDUSD H4 chart indicates a clear ascending triangle pattern, following a strong bullish uptrend. Recently, price action has respected the triangle’s bottom trendline and is currently moving toward the upper boundary. The presence of strong bullish engulfing candles and positive market momentum suggests a greater probability of an upward breakout, potentially extending the bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: On the H4 timeframe, Parabolic SAR dots are situated below the price, indicating a bullish momentum and supporting the likelihood of upward movement.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increased volatility. The current price has surpassed the upper band, signaling strong bullish momentum. Traders should be cautious of short-term pullbacks, but overall conditions favor continued bullish action.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 65.71, suggesting bullish strength but still below the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates that gold prices (XAU/USD) have room to continue rising before becoming overextended.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line currently reads -0.595, with the signal line at -10.837, indicating an emerging bullish crossover. Although still negative, upward momentum is strengthening, suggesting a continuation of bullish pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at approximately 3297.50, aligning with the ascending triangle’s bottom line and recent price consolidation.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located near the upper boundary of the ascending triangle, around 3459.00, representing recent highs and a significant psychological level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The XAU/USD H4 technical analysis reveals a predominantly bullish outlook, supported by strong price action, bullish indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and Bollinger Bands, and increasing bullish momentum reflected by MACD and RSI. The ascending triangle pattern suggests a high probability of upward breakout. Traders should closely monitor today’s USD economic news, as data strength will significantly influence price volatility and momentum direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.04.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.05.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair is subject to notable volatility today, given the release of key economic indicators for both currencies. For the British Pound (GBP), traders are closely watching the UK's Services PMI from S&P Global and results from the Debt Management Office's 10-year bond auctions. These indicators could heavily influence the GBP’s strength, reflecting current market conditions and investors' outlook on UK economic health. For the US Dollar (USD), attention will be drawn towards the trade balance report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as the Services PMI from both S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). These indicators could lead to volatility in the USD, impacting GBPUSD trading conditions significantly.


Price Action:
GBPUSD price action on the H4 chart indicates a predominant bearish trend. After a short reversal, bearish momentum resumed with notable strength. Each drop in price has been accompanied by minor and flat corrective phases. The most recent correction is sharper, currently hovering between Fibonacci retracement levels of 23.6% and 38.2%. Should these levels fail to contain the correction, the next critical resistance area lies at 1.33902, historically a zone with significant price reactions. The RSI divergence pattern suggests a likely continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line stands at -0.002930, with the histogram level at -0.001413, indicating that bearish momentum persists but is currently weaker. Traders should monitor for potential crossovers signaling either continued bearish momentum or a reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently hovers around the 50.36 level, signifying a neutral market sentiment. Given the RSI divergence with higher highs compared to the lower highs in price, traders should anticipate potential bearish continuation.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the current candles, signaling the potential continuation of the correction phase. This indicator reinforces the likelihood of upward continuation unless reversed by a clear downward move.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at the recent low around the 1.31730 level, serving as a crucial psychological and technical floor.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is marked at 1.33902, aligning with significant historical price reactions and the Fibonacci retracement levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD technical and fundamental analysis for the H4 timeframe underscores ongoing bearish sentiment, supported by RSI divergence, MACD weakening bearish momentum, and Parabolic SAR alignment. The upcoming economic news from the UK and the US could significantly affect volatility and market direction. Traders should remain cautious, factoring in these fundamental releases to refine their strategies.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.05.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NZD/USD H4 technical and fundamental analysis is influenced by a significant wave of economic data from New Zealand and the United States. From the NZD side, market participants are closely watching employment figures, unemployment rates, and labor cost changes. These indicators are essential for understanding the health of New Zealand’s labor market, a crucial driver of consumer spending and inflation. While no releases are scheduled for today, anticipation builds for the next quarterly labor data in early November, potentially setting the tone for the NZD in the coming weeks. On the USD side, attention shifts to energy-related reports and monetary policy commentary. Crude Oil Inventory levels from the EIA, expected later this week, may impact overall risk sentiment and indirectly influence USD valuation. Moreover, FOMC members Lisa Cook and Susan Collins are scheduled to speak today. Their commentary could offer crucial insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, influencing USD demand and NZD-USD exchange rates.


Price Action:
The NZD/USD price action on the H4 chart has shown a predominantly bearish trend. After a significant downward movement, the pair touched the 0.58565 support area, which coincides with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level. Following that, the price rebounded toward the 23.6% Fib level, struggling to establish a clear breakout. Despite forming three consecutive bullish (green) candles, the most recent candle has turned red, suggesting hesitation from the bulls at this critical resistance zone. The pair remains range-bound between the 0.58565 support and 0.58990 resistance, consolidating below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The NZD/USD price has been fluctuating between the lower and middle Bollinger Bands, indicating low volatility and range-bound behavior. After briefly touching the lower band, the price is attempting to break through the middle band, aligning with the 23.6% Fib level. However, the rejection shown by the red candle suggests resistance and potential consolidation unless a clear bullish breakout occurs.
Parabolic SAR: The last four Parabolic SAR dots are aligned above the price candles, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Until the dots flip below the candles, momentum remains in favor of the bears, and traders may look for selling opportunities near resistance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 45.40, which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating slight bearish momentum. It is not in oversold territory, so there is still room for further downside before the market becomes technically oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is at -0.000947, with the signal line at -0.001093, and the histogram is gradually turning positive. This could suggest that bearish momentum is weakening, and a potential crossover could occur soon. However, confirmation is required for a trend reversal signal.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support lies around 0.58565, which is aligned with the recent low and the 0.0 Fibonacci level, acting as a psychological and technical floor.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is found at 0.59000, near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the middle Bollinger Band, forming a strong confluence area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In today’s NZD/USD H4 chart forecast, the pair is attempting to recover from its recent lows but faces stiff resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR suggest consolidation or potential downside continuation, while the RSI and MACD hint at possible bullish momentum buildup. Fundamental factors remain balanced, with upcoming U.S. central bank commentary and crude oil inventory data possibly tilting sentiment in favor of the USD. Traders should remain cautious and watch for a breakout from the current range to determine the next directional bias.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.06.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.07.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's EURUSD fundamental outlook shows significant market-moving events primarily from the USD side. Key releases include initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor, labor productivity and unit labor costs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and wholesale inventories from the Census Bureau. The market typically reacts positively to lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and labor productivity figures, as these signal economic strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's fireside chat will draw close attention as investors look for insights into future monetary policy directions. For EUR, attention will focus primarily on upcoming trade balance and industrial output data from Destatis and economic bulletins from the ECB.


Price Action:
The EURUSD H4 price action demonstrates a strong bullish trend following a sharp reversal from previous bearish momentum. After an earlier consolidation phase, the EURUSD began another notable bullish impulse, breaking decisively above previous resistance levels. The latest candles, however, indicate a possible correction as traders secure profits, but based on Fibonacci retracement analysis, prices are likely to remain above the 23.6% retracement level before resuming bullish momentum. The key target for this bullish run is identified at 1.17682, a previously significant reactionary level.


Key Technical Indicators:
Williams %R: The indicator is hovering around the -9.10 level, suggesting the EURUSD H4 is currently in an overbought territory. Although this signals potential short-term pullbacks, the strong bullish momentum remains evident, and a slight correction is probable before further bullish moves.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator on the EURUSD H4 chart is currently hovering near 67.02, just below the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates that while bullish momentum remains robust, there's potential for minor consolidation or corrective moves to relieve bullish pressure before continuing upwards.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands on EURUSD H4 have recently expanded, illustrating a strong bullish momentum and heightened volatility. Current price candles have reached the upper band, implying potential short-term retracement or sideways movement as the market consolidates gains before advancing further.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support aligns at the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at around 1.15992, serving as a robust floor for potential retracement.
Resistance: The primary resistance target stands firmly at 1.17682, reflecting historical price reaction significance.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EURUSD's H4 timeframe analysis indicates bullish dominance, supported by technical indicators like Williams %R, RSI, and Bollinger Bands. Short-term corrections are expected but likely limited above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. Traders should closely monitor today's USD economic releases and speeches from Fed representatives, as these could introduce volatility. EUR-specific data could provide additional directional cues.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.07.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD currency pair could see increased volatility today as markets prepare for high-impact USD and CAD news releases. On the USD side, remarks from US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem may influence expectations for fiscal policy and interest rate direction. Any hawkish language from the Fed could strengthen the USD. From the CAD side, key employment change and unemployment rate data will be released by Statistics Canada. Strong labor market results would likely boost the Canadian Dollar, putting downward pressure on USDCAD. Traders should monitor these events closely, as the combination of US political and monetary commentary with Canadian economic data could spark significant intraday moves.


Price Action:
After a sharp bullish rally, USDCAD broke its uptrend line with a strong bearish candle, pulling back into the previously broken zone near 1.37646. Price is currently consolidating around this level, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Given the recent momentum, the correction phase could be near completion. If buying pressure returns, the next upside target could be 1.38201, while further selling momentum could push the price toward 1.37391 as the next potential reversal point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Last few dots are above the price, confirming the current bearish bias. However, the flatter alignment of recent dots suggests a slowdown in bearish momentum, which could pave the way for a bullish reversal if supported by fundamentals.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 50.78, reflecting neutral conditions. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction.
MACD (12,26,9): With the MACD line at 0.000181 and the signal line at 0.000815, momentum appears to be weakening. The histogram is edging toward negative territory, aligning with the consolidation phase and hinting at potential bearish continuation unless buying volume increases.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.37646, which represents the current consolidation area and a previously broken level now acting as a test zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.38201, which aligns with recent highs and serves as the next upside target if bullish momentum resumes.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart is showing a consolidation phase after breaking its bullish structure. Parabolic SAR remains bearish, RSI is neutral, and MACD indicates fading bullish momentum. With today’s US speeches and Canadian employment data ahead, traders should expect volatility spikes. A confirmed break above 1.38201 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below 1.37646 might open the way to 1.37391. Caution is advised, and confirmation from both technical and fundamental cues should guide trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.08.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

ETH/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to show strong bullish sentiment, supported by the broader crypto market recovery and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Today, traders will closely watch the USD inflation expectations release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. This quarterly survey gauges business managers' views on price changes over the next 12 months. If the actual figure surpasses forecasts, the US Dollar may strengthen, potentially adding short-term selling pressure on ETHUSD. However, Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals remain robust with sustained demand for decentralized applications (dApps) and Layer-2 scaling solutions, suggesting any dips could attract new buyers.


Price Action
After a prolonged consolidation phase, ETH-USD has surged aggressively, attacking its recent high near $4,140. The strong bullish impulse broke through previous resistance zones, with the price briefly touching $4,204 before pulling back slightly. This resistance level is significant, and although the first breakout attempt might face profit-taking, the momentum suggests that ETHUSD could eventually break above it and head toward its all-time high (ATH). The recent move is characterized by high volume and acceleration, indicating strong market participation from buyers.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last few Parabolic SAR dots are positioned well below the price, with the gap widening. This reflects strong bullish acceleration and sustained momentum, confirming the current uptrend in ETHUSD.
RSI (14): Currently at 81.44, well above the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates strong buying pressure but also warns of a potential short-term correction before continuation.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line at 105.099 is significantly above the signal line at 60.984, with widening histogram bars. This divergence between the two lines shows increasing bullish momentum and confirms the strength of the ongoing uptrend.
Stochastic (5,3,3): With readings of 91 and 76, the Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, signaling that while the bullish trend is strong, the market could be due for a short-term consolidation or minor pullback before another upward push.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 3,473.21, which aligns with the lower consolidation boundary and a previous price reaction zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 4,140.47, which coincides with the recent breakout point, followed by 4,204.37, marking the latest intraday high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The ETH-USD H4 chart shows a decisive breakout attempt from its recent consolidation, supported by strong bullish momentum across all major technical indicators. While the RSI and Stochastic suggest overbought conditions, the widening Parabolic SAR and bullish MACD divergence confirm the strength of the move. Traders should watch for a possible retest of $4,140 as support before another rally attempt toward $4,300–$4,400 and eventually the ATH. Given the upcoming USD inflation expectations release, short-term volatility is likely. A stronger USD may create temporary selling pressure, but Ethereum’s current trend and market structure remain bullish.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.11.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis 08.12.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The AUD-USD currency pair is currently influenced by mixed signals from both the Australian and US economic fronts. Today’s key upcoming AUD-related releases include the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence report, a leading indicator of business sentiment that can foreshadow future economic activity such as hiring and investment. Additionally, traders are awaiting further clarity from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its interest rate outlook ahead of the September 30 meeting. From the US side, market focus will shift to the NFIB Small Business Index and later this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which remains a major driver for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Speeches from Fed officials Thomas Barkin and Jeffrey Schmid could add volatility to USD pairs as traders seek clues on the next monetary policy steps.


Price Action
On the H4 chart, AUD USD has been trading within a long-term ascending trend channel following a recovery from its March low. Price is now locked in a sideways daily range within this upward channel, with the current battle occurring around the mid-line of the daily channel. The pair is showing hesitation, with momentum not strong enough to convincingly break above the mid-range resistance. If the bulls fail to secure this breakout, a retracement toward the lower trendline of the channel—and potentially the lower boundary of the sideways range—is likely. Conversely, a successful breakout could open the path toward the upper band of the daily range.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling a potential volatility squeeze. The price is currently testing the middle line of the Bands, which aligns with the mid-range resistance of the sideways channel. This compression suggests that a breakout move—either up or down—may occur soon, but given the weaker bullish momentum, the downside risk appears slightly higher.
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index is at 51.69, reflecting a neutral momentum state. This position shows neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which supports the case for potential range-bound trading in the near term. The RSI does not currently show strong bullish divergence, reinforcing the risk of a corrective move.
MACD (24,52,12): The MACD main line (0.000523) is marginally above the signal line (0.000426), and the histogram has recently crossed above the zero line. While this suggests a mild bullish bias, the histogram’s low amplitude indicates that momentum is still weak and susceptible to reversal. A bearish crossover here could accelerate a drop toward support.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6440, which aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel and recent price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6529, which coincides with the mid-line of the sideways daily channel and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration
The AUD/USD H4 chart shows a market at a critical juncture, trading at the mid-line resistance of a sideways daily channel within an ascending trend structure. While the narrowing Bollinger Bands point toward an upcoming breakout, the combination of a neutral RSI and a weak MACD histogram suggests the upside lacks conviction. This makes a downward correction toward 0.6440 more probable unless strong bullish momentum emerges. Traders should closely monitor today’s NAB Business Confidence report and speeches from US Fed officials for potential catalysts.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.12.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CAD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today, the Euro’s performance is influenced by key German economic releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which serve as leading inflation indicators. Higher-than-expected results could strengthen the Euro by reinforcing expectations for tighter European Central Bank policy. Additionally, the Bund Auction provides insight into investor sentiment toward Eurozone bonds. On the Canadian side, the market awaits the Bank of Canada (BOC) Minutes, which could reveal the central bank’s economic outlook and potential shifts in interest rate policy. Any hawkish tone may boost the CAD, creating increased volatility in EURCAD price action.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, EURCAD is in a clear bullish trend, trading within a rising wedge pattern. The pair recently broke above short-term resistance, approaching the upper boundary near 1.61100. Price action shows strong upward momentum with the last three Parabolic SAR dots positioned below the candles, supporting the bullish bias. The short-term ascending trendline is acting as immediate support, while the longer-term trendline remains intact below the candles, confirming a broader bullish structure. Candles are riding along the upper Bollinger Band, which has started to expand, signaling increasing volatility and strong buying pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: EUR-CAD price is moving along the upper Bollinger Band, with bands widening, indicating rising volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish move. Sustained trading above the midline suggests ongoing buying interest.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the candles, confirming the current bullish trend. As long as price remains above these dots, upward momentum is expected to hold.
Williams %R: The Williams %R is at -9.19, placing the market in overbought territory. This reflects strong bullish pressure but also signals that a short-term pullback or consolidation could occur.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI stands at 65.64, below the overbought level of 70, indicating there is still room for further upward movement before market exhaustion. The RSI supports continued bullish price action but warrants caution for potential overextension.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is seen at 1.60000, aligned with the short-term ascending trendline.
Resistance: Key resistance is at 1.61100, with long-term resistance projected near 1.61490 at the wedge’s upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR CAD H4 analysis shows strong bullish momentum supported by technical indicators such as the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, Williams %R, and RSI. While the overall trend remains upward, overbought conditions suggest the potential for short-term retracement before any continued rally. Traders should closely monitor today’s Eurozone CPI, WPI, Bund Auction results, and the Bank of Canada Minutes for possible volatility spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.13.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 14.08.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The GBPUSD currency pair is currently driven by anticipation of key economic data from both the UK and the US. For the Pound, traders are awaiting the RICS Housing Price Balance, a leading indicator of housing market trends, which could influence GBP sentiment if it beats or misses expectations. Later this week, UK GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production will be released, all of which could shape medium-term price direction. On the US side, the focus is on PPI inflation data and weekly jobless claims. Hawkish FOMC commentary could lift the USD, while softer data may encourage further GBP strength. Given the economic calendar, volatility in GBPUSD is expected to rise.


Price Action
The GBPUSD H4 chart shows a strong rebound from the broken support level at 1.31726, with price action trending higher toward the long-term uptrend line. If buyers succeed in breaking above this trendline, the next target is the 1.37820 resistance level. The Parabolic SAR remains firmly bullish, showing widening gaps below the price, which indicates accelerating buying pressure. However, with momentum oscillators in extreme overbought conditions, there is potential for a short-term pause before the next rally attempt.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The dots are positioned below the current price and the gap between the dots and the candles has widened. This indicates that the bullish momentum is strengthening, supporting the possibility of further upside if resistance levels are broken.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 78.05, above the overbought threshold of 70. While this highlights strong bullish momentum, it also signals that the market could be overextended, increasing the likelihood of a pullback or consolidation.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The %K and %D readings are at 90.38 and 87.77, respectively, confirming extreme overbought conditions. This aligns with RSI warnings and suggests that while buyers are in control, short-term corrective moves cannot be ruled out.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is at 1.31726, which was previously a resistance zone and aligns with a recent price breakout area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.37820, which coincides with a key swing high and projected upside target if the uptrend line breaks.


Conclusion and Consideration
The GBPUSD H4 analysis suggests sustained bullish momentum, backed by strong price action and supportive technical indicators. However, with both RSI and Stochastic in overbought territory, the probability of short-term consolidation or retracement before testing 1.37820 is high. Traders should monitor today’s UK housing data and US inflation numbers closely, as these releases could be the catalysts for either a breakout continuation or a pullback toward support.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.14.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 08.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair is currently influenced by a packed economic calendar for both the United States and Japan. For the JPY, traders are watching today’s GDP Deflator, Real GDP, and Industrial Production data from the Cabinet Office and METI. Stronger-than-expected Japanese growth or production figures may bolster the Yen by raising the prospect of tighter Bank of Japan policy. On the USD side, key data releases include Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Price Index, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Positive results across these indicators would strengthen the USD by supporting a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, while weaker outcomes could dampen dollar demand. Given the heavy data flow, volatility in USDJPY is likely to remain elevated throughout the session.


Price Action
On the H4 timeframe, USD-JPY has been trending upward since mid-June 2025, respecting a strong ascending trendline. The pair recently tested this dynamic support at 146.70 and bounced higher, signaling renewed bullish pressure. This rebound keeps the sequence of higher highs and higher lows intact, pointing toward a possible move toward 151.60 in the medium term. The recent pullback appears corrective in nature, and the recovery suggests bullish continuation remains the dominant scenario.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The most recent Parabolic SAR dots have flipped above the price and are widening, indicating that the prior bearish momentum is losing steam and that a bullish reversal is taking shape as the market reclaims the trendline.
RSI (14): Currently at 54.04, the RSI has broken above the neutral 50 level from below, reflecting improving bullish momentum. This position still leaves room before reaching the overbought threshold (70), which supports the potential for further upside.
MACD (24,52,12): The MACD line at -0.1612 and the signal line at -0.1022 remain in negative territory but are converging. This narrowing gap suggests weakening bearish momentum, and a bullish crossover could confirm the next leg higher toward the 151.60 resistance.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 146.700, which aligns with the ascending trendline and a recent price rebound zone. A deeper correction could find the next support at 145.750, matching a previous consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 149.450, which coincides with the last swing high before the recent retracement. A sustained breakout above this level could open the way toward 151.600, a key long-term resistance zone and previous peak.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USDJPY H4 chart remains structurally bullish, with price respecting the ascending trendline and indicators signaling potential momentum recovery. RSI’s move above 50, the Parabolic SAR shift, and MACD’s potential bullish crossover all align with the possibility of an advance toward 149.45 and, if broken, the 151.60 resistance. However, today’s multiple high-impact data releases from both the US and Japan could trigger sharp intraday swings. Traders should manage positions carefully and consider volatility when setting stop-loss and take-profit levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
08.15.2025