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The Dollar Elevated but Endures near Seven-week low Amid Fed policy Decision

The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, although, stayed near multi-week lows as U.S. Treasury yields sink. Most investors consolidate positions ere the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most advanced policy decision.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback slightly up by 0.14% to 90.907 against the basket of other currencies.

The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.15% to 108.25, with U.S. currency climbing up 0.1% with ongoing inclination from Friday’s seven-week low of 107.48.

The Bank of Japan kept its interest rates the same at 0.10% at the time of releasing the policy decision earlier in the day with the expectations of Investors.

The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.12% to 0.7790.

The NZD/USD pair inched down 0.14% to 0.7224.

The USD/CNY pair slightly up 0.03% to 6.4863.

The GBP/USD pair edged down 0.06% to 1.3888.

The euro dropped down 0.1% to $1.2078 but remained near the one-month high of $1.2117 hit on Monday.

The dollar has declined nearly 3% since late March 2021, as U.S. Treasury yields remain untouched in restricted areas after escaping from their 14-month high of 1.7760%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near 1.58% on Tuesday.

Investors are looking forward to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, keenly waiting for the comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. Mostly the questions will be in regards to enhanced economic outlook justifies removal of monetary easing by the central bank.

The dollar has declined nearly 3% since late March 2021, as U.S. Treasury yields remain untouched in restricted areas after escaping from their 14-month high of 1.7760%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered near 1.58% on Tuesday.
 
Dollar Elevated with Expectations on Fed Policy Decision

The Dollar inclined on Wednesday Morning in Asia after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of latest policy decision and Joe Biden’s spoke in front of a collective assembly of Congress, is going to happen later in the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged up 0.10% to 90.980.

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.14% to 108.83 as Japan showed a 5.2% gains which were better than the expectation in March retail sales yearly earlier in the day, but the nation still in a worrisome situation due to the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases and Bank of Japan’s confession on Tuesday that inflation is not going to reach its key 2% target through early 2023.

The AUD/USD pair declined 0.24% to 0.7745. Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier in the day, rising 0.6% quarterly and 1.1% yearly during the first quarter of 2021.

The NZD/USD pair was stable at 0.7207.

The USD/CNY pair edged up 0.05% to 6.4863.

The GBP/USD pair declined 0.26% to 1.3876.

Even Though the dollar recover from its lowest level since March 3 hit on Monday disbelief abide on whether its downward trend since late March is over.

Receding odds on whether the Fed will start putting the foundation for a future policy tightening promptly when its hands down its decision, also contributed to the U.S. currency’s decline.

Although the central bank is anticipated to maintain its aggressive policy, some investors suggested that signs of rising inflation expectations could nudge it to reject the position sooner than expected. The break Even inflation rate rose above 2.40%, its highest level since 2013, on Tuesday.
 
Dollar Declined, Euro Elevated as Fed kept Dovish Monetary Policy

The Dollar declined on Thursday morning in Asia, as the U.S. Federal permit in its most advanced policy decision the global reflation trade with persistently aggressive monetary policy.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other major currencies slightly down 0.08%.

The USD/JPY pair slightly down 0.01% to 108.58. A holiday in Japan could help reduce losses during the Asian session.

The AUD/USD pair Edged up 0.04% to 0.7792.

The NZD/USD pair Edged up 0.08% to 0.7258.

The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.11% to 6.4702.

The GBP/USD edged up 0.15% to 1.3954.

The dollar’s failure was the euro’s gains, with the only currency hitting its highest level against the dollar following late February 2021 while deciphering major trendline resistance at $1.2114.

The Fed preserved its interest rate constant at 0.25% as it delivered its policy decision on Wednesday as per investor expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stating it was “not time yet” and that employment still had a long way towards recovery.

USD/TRY slightly higher to 8.1972, before the first public policy presentation by Turkey’s new central bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu.
 
Xtreamforex Technical Analysis : 30-04-2021

Pound
(1.3947) has been rising slowly. A break above 1.40 is needed for the pair to turn bullish and rise further towards 1.41-1.42 in the longer run.

For now watch a rise to 1.40 to see if it manages to break above or faces rejection from there.

RESISTANCE LEVEL: R1: 1.39573, R2: 1.39657, R31.39794 PIVOT POINT: 1.39488 SUPPORT LEVEL: S1: 1.39352, S2: 1.39215, S3: 1.39131.

Euro (1.2118) dipped from 1.2150 but the decline is likely to be limited to 1.2090 for the near term before the Euro again starts to rise. Watch price action near 1.2090.

RESISTANCE LEVEL: R1: 1.21325, R2: 1.21427, R3: 1.21564 PIVOT POINT: 1.21223 SUPPORT LEVEL: S1: 1.21086, S2: 1.20949, S3: 1.20847, S3: 1.20745.
 
Dollar Constant as Traders Support for more U.S. Data

After its recent bounce on Monday, the Dollar straightened as investors made a cautious start to a week packed with central bank meetings and U.S. economic data, anticipating evidence on the global inflation outlook and policymakers’ responses.

Trade was reduced by holidays in Japan, China, and Britain, which kept a cover-up on volatility, leaving the U.S. Currency to trade where it completed after a Friday leap.

It held at $1.2040 per euro and crept to a three-week high of 109.66 yen.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces greenback versus a basket of other currencies slightly up 0.07% to 91.330.

The USD/JPY pair was high 0.229% to 109.59.

The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.05% to 0.7720.

The NZD/USD pair elevated 0.22% to 0.7176.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.05% to 1.3821.
 
Dollar High as regardless of Surprise fall in U.S. Manufacturing Data

The dollar was high on Tuesday morning in Asia as an unexpected slowdown in U.S. manufacturing growth cut off Investor bets on a booming U.S. economy giving the U.S. currency a boost.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies inclined 0.22% to 91.125.

The USD/JPY pair was up 0.22% to 109.28.

The AUD/USD pair was down 0.21% to 0.7744.

The NZD/USD pair inched down 0.33% to 0.7174.

The USD/CNY pair was steady at 6.4735.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.27% to 1.3872.

Japanese and Chinese markets remained closed for a holiday.

The U.S. Institute of Supply and Management ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Monday, was a lower-than-expected 60.7 for April.

The euro rose 0.3%, as investors understood economic data from the region. The German Manufacturing PMI was 66.2 for April, while the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI was 62.9.

Investors are now looking to further data to be released later in the week including the U.S Trade balance and the April U.S. employment report which includes non-farmer payrolls.

Benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped 2.5 basis points late as the data baffled, and like New York, Fed President John Willian emphasized that the economic recovery so far is “not nearly enough” to harden monetary policy.
 
The Dollar Climbs Highest in over Two Weeks

The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia as concerns over U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments about increasing interest rates.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback versus a basket of other currencies was high 0.31% to 91.210.

The USD/JPY pair was steady at 109.32.

The AUD/USD pair elevated 0.35% to 0.7732.

The NZD/USD pair gained 0.38% to 0.77196.

The New Zealand dollar was supported by local employment data, including the employment change that increased 0.6% quarterly during the first quarter of 2021.
The USD/CNY pair was steady at 6.4735.

The GBP/USD pair inched up 0.15% to 1.3906 as investors expect the Bank of England policy decisions that will be delivered on Thursday.

This jump in the dollar came in the wake of comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen inferring the requirement of increased rates in the future.

Yellen said at a virtual meeting on Tuesday “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat,” “Even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy, it could cause some very reasonable increases in interest rates.”

Yellen later tried to reverse the importance of these remarks, but the mere mention of U.S. tightening frightened a market that has become so affected by the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus.

So far, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has disputed the labor market is still far short of where it needs to be to start talking of tapering asset buying.
Three more Fed officials are speaking later on Wednesday providing the opportunity for further market-moving comments.
 
World Stocks on a Progressive note for First Weekly Gain

World stocks managed for their first weekly gain in three in the middle of the flood in commodity prices on the other hand traders supported the U.S. jobs report later on Friday that could provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will ease back on monetary stimulus.

European stocks opened higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index scoring a record as powerful data from Germany and other major economies added to hopes of a swift recovery from the pandemic shock.

By midday in London, German DAX climbed 1.3%.

France’s CAC 40 scored its highest since November 2000 Britain’s.

FTSE 100 breached the 7,100 marks, up 0.7% on the day.

MSCI’s benchmark for global equity markets, which tracks stocks in 50 countries, slightly up about 0.2%, on course for a 0.5% gain this week.

Its broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lifted about 0.4% on Friday, while Japan’s Nikkei increased about 0.2%.

China’s blue chips finished at 1.3% lower on the day.

Iron ore futures jumped to a record high on Friday, while crude oil rose.

Wall Street investors piled into economically-sensitive stocks on the reflation trade, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record close on Thursday.

The Dow climbed 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%.

S&P futures led to further gains 0.3% higher on Friday.

The Russell 1000 Value index increased 0.8%, outpacing the Russell 1000 Growth index, which raised 0.5%.
 
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Dollar Soothes after Beating U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. dollar aided losses near 2-1/2 month lows on Monday as a bitter U.S. employment report advised investors to unwrap their increasing long positions in the U.S currency.

The United States developed a little more than a quarter of the jobs that economists had anticipated last month and the unemployment rate suddenly jumped higher, projecting uncertainties that the Fed would judge improving the timeline of tightening policy in the coming months.

The Dollar Index traces the greenback against six opponents, attained at 90.305, up 0.2% on the day, after dipping as low as 90.128 for the first time since Feb.

However, the dollar’s losses were skipped due to more specific U.S. Treasury yields, which were up nearly 2 bps in early London trading at 1.60%.

The Sterling was the winner among the most traded currencies, rising 0.5% to $1.4067 the highest since Feb. 25.

Such a plebiscite requires the reinforcement of the UK government in London and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has managed out keeping another vote, mentioned that the country faced more constraining difficulties such as the recovery from the corona virus pandemic.

The euro stabled 0.1% to $1.2142, earlier touching the highest since Feb. 26 at $1.2177.
 
Dollar Up, Commodity Currencies Restrict Gains

The dollar gains in early European trade Tuesday, however, gains were completed by the strength of commodity currencies on the back of rises in the prices of oil and base metals.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies crawled down 0.06% to 90.237 by 11:53.

The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.10% to 108.89.

The AUD/USD pair slightly up 0.03% to 0.7833 ahead of Australia’s federal budget, due to be handed down later in the day.

The NZD/USD pair trimmed down 0.14% to 0.7264.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.18% to 6.4270.

China’s CPI just dropped expectations, contracting 0.3% monthly but rose 0.9%Yearly. The PPI increased a 6.8% year-on-year.

The GBP/USD pair edged down 0.01% to 1.4118.

Investors are looking forward to inflation data from the U.S., including core CPI, that will be released on Wednesday. The data will measure the level of inflationary pressure and could accelerate Treasury yields up, possibly it could give the greenback a lift.

Prices for commodities including crude oil, copper, and steel are expected to rise further, increasing concerns about runaway inflation.

The dollar was trading at $1.2097 against its Canadian counterpart.

The greenback’s weakest level in more than three years. It was also near a two-week low against the Mexican peso.

Demand for commodities is anticipated to grow continuously because the improved COVID-19 vaccinations could lead to a growing economic viewpoint in more countries.
 
Dollar slightly Up; Inflation Data Appears Healthy

The dollar is a gainer with up in early European trade Wednesday although, remains near recent lows ahead of a key U.S. inflation release.

The Dollar Index, which traces the U.S. Dollar versus a basket of six other currencies, was up 0.2% at 90.287.

EUR/USD traded 0.2% lower at 1.2127.

USD/JPY elevated 0.2% to 108.83.

AUD/USD declined 0.5% to 0.7804.

NZD/USD sank 0.6% to 0.7234, with the commodity currencies reducing off after reading recent ten-week tops.

Investors now anticipate the latest U.S. consumer inflation data, due at 8:30, which is expected to show a 3.6% lift in yearly prices, promoted by last April’s low base. This would be the highest jump since September 2011.

On the other hand, equity markets have started to fuss about what a high inflation number could mean in terms of Federal Reserve policy continuing progressive.

Currency traders appear to have been soothed by repeated promises of patience from Fed speakers as the dollar remains at low levels.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Tuesday he expects inflation could linger as high as 2.5% next year, while Fed Governor Lael Brainard said weak labor data last week shows the recovery has a long way to run.

GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.4129, after the united kingdom economy contracted 1.5% in the first quarter of the year, in line with the Bank of England’s latest forecast.
 
Dollar Elevated; Fed in Limelight on Inflation Surge

The dollar slightly higher in early European trade Thursday, with the U.S. currency supported by concerns of an earlier than expected Federal Reserve response to inflationary pressures in the wake of the worryingly large jump in U.S. consumer prices.

The U.S. Dollar Index Traces the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was higher 0.1% at 90.775, around its highest level in a week.

EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at 1.2075, after dropping around 0.6% the previous session.

GBP/USD was flat at 1.4052, and
USD/JPY Elevated 0.1% at 109.73, close to its strongest level in five weeks.

AUD/USD dropped 0.2% to 0.7712, while
NZD/USD climbed 0.1% to 0.7160, availing from additional plans to open the New Zealand economy.

The consumer price index strengthened 4.2% in April from a year ago, according to data released on Wednesday, well above consensus forecasts for 3.6% and climbing to its highest rate since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis.

Benchmark 10 year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a five-week high above 1.70% overnight, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, but have since trimmed back down to 1.685%.

Fed speakers have been very keen to make clear that they expected a bounce in prices as last year’s collapse in oil prices and a nascent economic recovery worked their way through the system, but they saw this increase as temporary.
 
Dollar Topple; Inflation Concerns Indicate Substantial Week

The Dollar Declined in early European trade on Friday after the one-week gain because traders considerably seem to be fine with the latest inflation data that could impact on Federal Reserve Policy.

The Dollar Index, which traces the U.S. currency against a basket of six other currencies was declined 0.2% at 90.532.

EUR/USD was traded 0.3% higher at 1.2109.

GBP/USD was high 0.1% at 1.4068.

USD/JPY was declined 0.1% at 109.39.

AUD/USD elevated 0.2% to 0.7744.

NZD/USD elevated 0.3% to 0.7192.

The release of Factory gate price data in the U.S. on Thursday with the Producer Price Index Inclined by 0.6% in April and the Annual Figure climbed by 6.2% which was the highest yearly rise since the series was renewed in 2010.

This powerful data add to Wednesday’s remarkable rise in consumer price. Submitting inflationary pressure is building up in the United States because of the vaccine rollouts ready to reopen of a rupturing economy.

Benchmark 10- Year U.S. Treasury yields declined after the PPI data and now trade around 1.65%.

For today, the centre of attraction will be the U.S. retail sales for April, which should continue to persist strongly after the impressive 9.7% rise in March, as well as industrial production numbers and consumer sentiments for May.
 
Dollar Higher Over Asian Covid-19 Upsurge Concerns

The Dollar elevated on Monday morning in Asia amid distresses caused by fresh COVID-19 cases in some Asian Countries. Notwithstanding, investors are densely positioning for a drop in the U.S. currency as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds to its current dovish policy.

The U.S. dollar index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly up 0.06% to 90.373.
The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.01% to 109.336.
The AUD/USD pair was declined 0.24% to 0.7753, with the reserve bank of Australia due to release the minutes from its latest meeting on Tuesday.

The NZD/USD pair declined 0.52% to 0.7216.

The USD/CNY pair Slightly up 0.03% to 6.4384.
Chinese industrial production growth decreased to 9.8% yearly in April, as per the data released earlier in the day.

The GBP/USD pair slightly down 0.04% to 1.4090.
However, the pound was almost a two-and-a-half-month high as the U.K. reopens its economy after a four-month lockdown.

The U.S. currency was supported by facilitating commodity prices and the COVID-19 outbreaks in Singapore and Taiwan with both countries hardening restrictive measures.
Singaporean primary, secondary, junior college, and Millennia Institute students shifted to full home-based learning from May 19 till the end of the school term on May 28.

However, a rebound from surprisingly good U.S. inflation data released during the earlier week dissolved over uprising investor hopes that the Fed will keep investment rates low.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis on XtreamForex
 
Dollar Declined as Investors speculate on the U.S. Interest Rate Staying lower

The dollar slipped on Tuesday morning in Asia, hitting a six-year low against its Canadian counterpart and hanging close to multi-month lows against European currencies because investors are expecting that up bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would not lift interest rates.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly down 0.05% to 90.097.

The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.03% to 109.22, with Japan’s slow COVID-19 vaccination rate and dollar weakness securing the duo into a narrow range.

The yen also fell against the pound and the riskier currencies as data released earlier in the day said that the Japanese economy contracted more than expected during the first quarter of 2021, as its GDP contracted 5.1% yearly and 1.3% quarterly.

The AUD/USD pair was high 0.35% to 0.7791, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes from its latest meeting earlier in the day.
The NZD/USD pair gained 0.47% to 0.7234.
The USD/CNY pair slightly down 0.17% to 6.4278.
The GBP/USD pair was high 0.27% to 1.4173, its most powerful level since February 2021, as the U.K. begins to get out from the stringent COVID-19 lockdown.
The dollar was at $1.2167 against the euro, close to its weakest level since Feb. 26, 2021. The Canadian dollar climbed to a six-year high of C$1.2045 against its U.S. counterpart, supported by a rise in oil prices.

On Monday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan repeated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until 2022, thus sparking a further drop in bets that inflationary pressure could force the central bank to act sooner than expected.

Other Fed officials are expected to speak throughout the week and investors also await the release of the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, due on Wednesday.

Investors will examine the minutes once they are delivered for evidence as to the Fed’s monetary policy direction for the rest of 2021. However, an agreement is building that the Fed will continue with its current negative policy over the assumption that any acceleration in inflation is temporary, in turn keeping the dollar on a downward trend.
 
Dollar Steadied Against Major Currencies; Bitcoin Tumbled On China’s Verdict

The Dollar Stabilized versus major currencies on Wednesday as traders were waiting for U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, Although bitcoin dropped after China halted its financial institutions from offering services related to cryptocurrency assets.

The minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting is going to take place later on Wednesday are assumed to validate that policymakers are perhaps not ready to increase the rates.

The U.S currency traded at $1.2076 against the Canadian dollar close to its weakest since May 2015.

The GBP bought $1.4187, which was near its strongest level since late February.

The EUR was constant at $1.2231.
The dollar slightly moved at 108.96 against the yen and 0.8974 against the Swiss franc.
Previous week Data showing U.S. consumer prices increased 4.2% in April from a year earlier, was the quickest development in more than a decade, boosting concerns the Fed will have to commence raising interest rates earlier.

Fed policymakers confirmed that the rise is short-lived and repeated that they expect rates to remain flat, though not all are convinced by the Fed’s line.

The Dollar Index traces the U.S. Currency against a basket of six major currencies was valued at 89.732.

CAD and GBP Elevated as the expectations for policy tightening in Canada and the progressive lifting of all the restriction of coronavirus in Britain. However, any favorable inflation can lead the Dollar to recover from some of its losses.

In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin plunged below the closely-watched $40,000-mark to a three-month low of $39,000.
Ether dropped by more than 13% to $2,900, which is a two-week low.

Managerial uncertainty has appeared as an adverse factor after China banned its financial systems from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.
 
The Dollar weakened as Fed Minutes Sign at Narrow Discussion

The dollar dropped on Thursday morning in Asia as the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes unveiled that policymakers recommended a slowdown of bond purchase due to a sign of hastening inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly down 0.08% to 90.123

The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.07% to 109.14 as April’s trade data released earlier in the day surpassed expectations.
Exports expanded 38.0% year-on-year, Imports improved 12.8% year-on-year and the trade balance remains at JPY225.3 billion.

The AUD/USD pair trimmed up 0.17% to 0.7740. Employment data for April released earlier in the day said that the employment change declined by 30,600 in April while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%.
The NZD/USD pair slightly up 0.13% to 0.7176.

The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.07% to 6.4385, with the People’s Bank of China releasing the loan prime rate earlier in the day.

The GBP/USD pair slightly up 0.01% to 1.4114.

Investors are shocked by the verdict of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed official has mentioned again that the Fed dovish policy will remain unchanged as any rise in inflation would be temporary.
 
A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Loonie, the Pound, and the U.S Dollar in Focus

Technical Market Analysis

EUR/USD


Looking out to the pair, the price has already given the dip of 30 pips as the US dollar strengthened, by the mid of Thursday noon EUR/USD had been pushed up by the SMA to the resistance price of 1.2200. We can say that the pair will remain on the front foot around 1.2230 during the early morning today, later we have seen there was the decline of 0.5% of our dollar, On the monetary policy front, ECB president Lagarde is also scheduled to speak, major key levels of the pairs are as follow
Support level 1.2226
Resistance level 1.2239

GBP/USD

We can say that GBPUSD maintains a bullish bias in the short term picture, The pair opened at a higher price and quickly retreated toward the session’s low near 1.4169 giving the movement of 30 pips, Currently, the pair is trading at 1.4177 down of 0.08% on the day.
support level 1.4166
Resistance level 1.4181

AUD/USD

The Australian employment data largely disappointed yesterday giving the sharp decrease of 30,600 jobs against an expected gain of 15,000 jobs for April. Although there was a boost overnight following the slide on the greenback, the unemployment rate falls to 5.5%. Today we can see stable movement at 0.7756 and it could give the range between 0.78-0.7750 region for now. If there will be a break on any of these prices, it will give clarity on future movements
Support level 0.7746
Resistance level 0.7770

XAU/USD

The commodity is witnessed down on Friday morning in Asia Session as an improving outlook for Investors, however, dollar weakness and growth in Inflationary pressure capped losses. The latest update for the commodity is while bouncing off the intraday low, gold prints mild losses which is 0.10% coming around 1875.40 during Friday’s Asian session. Giving the consolidated gains, here are the levels it can witness today
Support level 1870.34
Resistance level 1878.44.
 

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